Didn't they reopened me vie theaters before closing them in short order ? Don't take my word on that, but I think I saw that bit of news... And the lockdown in Wuhan has barely ended / is still transitioning out, right ? Maybe they're being extra cautious and doing their due diligence...
The lockdown in Hubei ended on the 24th. The lockdown in Wuhan is scheduled to be lifted on the 8th. My issue with the tinfoil stuff is twofold:
1. Either they have it under control or they don't. If they didn't, clearly they would not be back on the path to normalcy. In the province's case they lifted it in the fourth week of March which means that they believed they had almost completely controlled new cases by the first week of March - otherwise they would risk a new outbreak. That looks consistent with the data, as new cases peaks a month ago. So all the timing seems accurate.
2. If they are lying, by how much and why? You don't lie to keep your numbers down 10% or 25%. You lie to obfuscate an entire order of magnitude difference. But I already showed in this thread that the number of urns "evidence" people keep sharing is really consistent with expected deaths for that province + reported deaths in that province. Since the growth rate has been consistent this whole time, and we know that the order of magnitude is correct, are we saying that the government, from the beginning, has been systematically underreporting by some fixed constant? That in January they said "ok everybody, multiply your reported deaths by .75"? So that in the end their numbers are smaller by a statistically insignificant value? Why?
Of course we both know that that's not what people mean when they say "the numbers are not accurate". What they mean is "there's no way they have it under control, it can't be that small, there are a billion people there and it's super dense and the CCP are known liars, I don't trust them." It's just dumb and wrong.
And some people want to split the difference and say "oh, well, I don't trust the Chinese per se, so who knows? We may never find out." Like YOU, Vom. You're doing that! Stop it! It's not helpful and it's not actually the rational opinion.