Corona Thread |OT| Nu variant, who dis?

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1263801827751079937

CNN has finally decided to fix their ratings

[team filler]

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1263595434309636096

https://twitter.com/SmarteeyPants/status/1263618249817817090

[Nintex]

"Look at this Bob, Yrral Lowkud, Deraj Kunsher and Avinka Kunsher filing for unemployment benefits, looks pretty suspect to me."

"Oh you are such a racist Steve"

[Flannel Boy]

covid19-projections.com estimates that the R₀ in the US is now back up to 1.00. Mission accomplished.

[Flannel Boy]

Correction from yesterday. There is 17% seroprevalence in London and 5% in the rest of the UK. The Tweet I quoted yesterday said it was 5% for the UK (implying it was an overall number). It's actually ~ 7% overall, meaning the IFR is somewhere between 0.8%-1.2%. This is in line with the large studies in NYC and Spain.

[Tripon]

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/frankline-ndifor-pastor-cameroon-072134640.html

LA pastor and former presidential candidate in Cameroon who claimed he had cured coronavirus via laying hands has reportedly died of the infection.

Frankline Ndifor died on Saturday at the age of 39, Voice of America reported.

The authorities had to use force to enter Ndifor’s residence because his followers, who believed he was a prophet, had blocked entry as they prayed for his resurrection.

[Madrun Badrun]

lol

[Great Rumbler]

I thought for sure that was a fake tweet, but it's 100% real.

[Flannel Boy]

Ontario Daily New Cases Rising Again:
294
308
361
329
345
341
391
340
304
427
390
413
441
 

[Madrun Badrun]

I'm not suprised, there are a lot of people out on the streets.

[Tripon]

The idea that coronavirus will be going away or mitigated by Summer seems to be a misnomer.

[Flannel Boy]

I'm not suprised, there are a lot of people out on the streets.

My apartment is near two parkettes. Both were packed late into the evening. Groups of up to a dozen. No masks.

And the numbers are up while testing is down.
https://twitter.com/CBCQueensPark/status/1263849845447634945

How did East Asia, South East Asia, Western Europe, Central Europe, and Southern Europe do what North America, Latin America, and South Asia cannot?

[Madrun Badrun]

The idea that coronavirus will be going away or mitigated by Summer seems to be a misnomer.

[kingv]

covid19-projections.com estimates that the R₀ in the US is now back up to 1.00. Mission accomplished.

I wonder what the R0 estimate and growth rate looks like with all states ex NY. I get the feeling that NY getting things under control is driving the trend because it was far the biggest hit spot and making people think it’s a bit better nationally than it really is.

[Flannel Boy]

covid19-projections.com estimates that the R₀ in the US is now back up to 1.00. Mission accomplished.

I wonder what the R0 estimate and growth rate looks like with all states ex NY. I get the feeling that NY getting things under control is driving the trend because it was far the biggest hit spot and making people think it’s a bit better nationally than it really is.

The site has estimates for states and even some counties.
You are correct.

https://twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1263567278181945344

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/1263838539646750720

[Nuitangg]

Latest numbers from the county neighboring mine [I do most of my shopping and eating there since my home county is pretty barren]:

(Image removed from quote.)

 

I'm not comfortable being this close to other bore members. 

[thisismyusername]

Latest numbers from the county neighboring mine [I do most of my shopping and eating there since my home county is pretty barren]:

(Image removed from quote.)

 

I'm not comfortable being this close to other bore members. 

A lot of them are mid-west, until Esch moved.

[Great Rumbler]

covid19-projections.com estimates that the R₀ in the US is now back up to 1.00. Mission accomplished.

I wonder what the R0 estimate and growth rate looks like with all states ex NY. I get the feeling that NY getting things under control is driving the trend because it was far the biggest hit spot and making people think it’s a bit better nationally than it really is.

The site has estimates for states and even some counties.
You are correct.

https://twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1263567278181945344

I really don't know how Oklahoma is doing as well as it is.

[Flannel Boy]

Not a surprise:
https://twitter.com/Magda_Skipper/status/1263742127550484480

[Occam]

The problem being this:
"The vaccine reported today was created with an adenovirus called Ad5 that easily enters human cells. However, many people already have been exposed to Ad5, so there is concern that antibodies to it will be too common to allow the vaccine to work widely."

[Nintex]

Am I supposed to ignore that Dr. Birx sounds out of breath while speaking at normal volume even without the mask?

Yes that's why they put angry queen Kayleigh on to yell about Flynn 

[Cauliflower Of Love]

Am I supposed to ignore that Dr. Birx sounds out of breath while speaking at normal volume even without the mask?

is there a press briefing?

[Nintex]

Am I supposed to ignore that Dr. Birx sounds out of breath while speaking at normal volume even without the mask?

is there a press briefing?

Trump just issued an ultimatum that churches and houses of worship should re-open right now or else.

Then Birx came up to teach the class COVID-19 maths and Kayleigh got her 30 minutes of dunking on the assembled journalists.

[Flannel Boy]

Barely related:

https://www.blogto.com/city/2020/05/ctv-apologizes-footage-man-kissing-stranger-trinity-bellwoods-viral/

CTV News came under fire today for airing a video of a man abruptly kissing a stranger while she was being interviewed on camera about masks in Toronto's Trinity Bellwoods Park, and the network has now issued a public apology.

The video began circulating on Twitter this morning and was instantly met with outrage from users who pointed out that, not only was this extremely dangerous considering the fact that we're in the midst of a global pandemic, but it was also a non-consensual (and gross) act.

The man then walks away, at which point the woman explains that they had actually met just minutes earlier and she thinks he's "so hot." She then calls after him telling him to text her.

[Occam]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HunterCrowther/status/1263873743216087040

These galaxy brains belong to each other.

[Madrun Badrun]

I need to hang out at Trinity-Bellwoods more. 

[Flannel Boy]

I need to hang out at Trinity-Bellwoods more.

I'm sure you can go anywhere in Toronto to find strange men willing to kiss you.

[Nintex]

The virgin journo vs. the chad hippie 

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1263909337581436928

 

[kingv]

The problem being this:
"The vaccine reported today was created with an adenovirus called Ad5 that easily enters human cells. However, many people already have been exposed to Ad5, so there is concern that antibodies to it will be too common to allow the vaccine to work widely."

Keep in mind that the flu vaccine is only like 45% effective in a good year. So even if this is say 30% effective, if enough people get it, it will reduce the rate of spread, and the number of infections to get to R0 herd immunity significantly.

If you need 40% of the population to get to herd immunity instead of 60, and balls out normal behavior R0 goes from 2.0 to to 1.3 or so, that’s a pretty big win.

[Bebpo]

Yeah idk, for Covid-19 vaccine I'd sure as hell want it to be more effective than the flu vaccine. I feel like everyone I know gets their flu shot each year and everyone still gets the flu. If everyone went out thinking they were immune and then gets covid-19 and dies...yeah, no. Needs to be like 99% effective.

[VomKriege]

Not a scientist but "flu" is really several different strains and that's why the vaccine has to be changed every year to hopefully targets the one that are estimated to be most prevalent that particular season hence why it's only partly effective.

SARS-COV-2 is one virus which is mutating slowly (if at all) so provided they can make a vaccine for the current form at the time, it should be fairly effective. No certainty it will happen, hoping that silver bullet is just around the corner has always been pie in the sky.

[kingv]

I think the concern with the ad5 vaccine, is it might not be really good at conferring immunity because of the delivery mechanism.

Because common cold is... common, a lot of people might have immunity at any given time, so the vaccine won’t have a chance to work in some people

[Tripon]

If you can convince the vaccine will give me a fever, and some other symptoms that can make my life feel bad for a while.

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1263965908453797889

Fuck.

[thisismyusername]

https://twitter.com/orgy_o_agamben/status/1263903036654698497

lmao. When did Chuck Wendig become the face of Soyface?

[Tuckers Law]

https://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1263825726110867456

https://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1263825727981588480

I’m curious about the assumed SAE’s from the study, what with the language of “most” being used in relation to mild or moderate adverse events.

[bluemax]

https://twitter.com/i/events/1263887960136712192

[benjipwns]

lmao. When did Chuck Wendig become the face of Soyface?

I swear I've seen a collage of like thirty images of him making it

[CatsCatsCats]

https://twitter.com/orgy_o_agamben/status/1263903036654698497

rip maf

[Flannel Boy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tcd004/status/1263896739846795265

[CatsCatsCats]

I’m telling ya, there’s gotta be people out there actively trying for a die off right before automation

[benjipwns]

Not a fair accounting at all. CDC leaves out how many souls were saved. Or lives saved even.

[toku]

https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1263957793293336579

[Cauliflower Of Love]

More like Covid Deception Center, right?

e: man fuck you toku for messing up my natural flow post



e2: that dude in the back left can't wait to get back to his n95 mask 

[kingv]

https://medium.com/@surgofoundation/the-coronaviruss-hidden-death-toll-in-america-s-counties-5ddee8fac9b9

Saw this... but I honestly have some issues with the methodology. Trying to look at individual counties might give you weird results, because especially in small counties, there is sure to be a lot of natural variation year to year. So trying to do that for 300 counties, and then aggregate up to a national level might not be the best way to do it. In this instance, looking at excess deaths in a broader sense like a full state should be more accurate because the central limit theorem will help balance out the variation.

[kingv]

Yeah idk, for Covid-19 vaccine I'd sure as hell want it to be more effective than the flu vaccine. I feel like everyone I know gets their flu shot each year and everyone still gets the flu. If everyone went out thinking they were immune and then gets covid-19 and dies...yeah, no. Needs to be like 99% effective.

If wishes were ponies... at this point I’ll take what I can get.

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/1263864499666325505

 

[Pissy F Benny]

Bill gates has grown bored of his weather weapons and is now trying to play eugenics with the entire population of earth

[Madrun Badrun]

I honestly don't know how the US comes back from all this crazyness.

[Positive Touch]

it's over dude

[Flannel Boy]

Are other countries making this a left vs right issue or are we really that fucked up

Brazil comes to mind. UK started with the wrong response.

Countries with centre-right (or centre-right coalition) governments (or PMs) that seemed to have handled it well: Austria, Australia, Estonia, Czech Republic, Greece, Latvia, Slovakia, Hungary, Germany, Japan. Most Canadian provinces have centre-right governments, and they generally responded well.

[Flannel Boy]

CDC is publishing nonsense?
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1263605696844623873

Studies from the UK, Spain, France, Sweden, and NYC all point to an IFR (not a CFR) of ~1%. The CDC is saying the CFR is 0.4%--which means the IFR is lower than that. A systemic review has the IFR at 0.74%. And that review used the the bullshit Santa Clara study (not random, test not approved by the FDA, statistical errors, not taking into account false positives, etc), which lowered the overall estimate.

Here is the Imperial College estimated IFR for all US states vs. the CDC's.

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1263683417859735552

CDC vs. the systematic review:

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1263988461163298817

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1263989372317294594

[Occam]

Yeah, that has been reported several times now.

[Occam]

Study estimates 24 US states still have uncontrolled coronavirus spread

The coronavirus may still be spreading at epidemic rates in 24 states, particularly in the South and Midwest, according to new research that highlights the risk of a second wave of infections in places that reopen too quickly or without sufficient precautions.

Researchers at Imperial College London created a model that incorporates cellphone data showing that people sharply reduced their movements after stay-at-home orders were broadly imposed in March. With restrictions now easing and mobility increasing with the approach of Memorial Day and the unofficial start of summer, the researchers developed an estimate of viral spread as of May 17.
[...]
The model shows potentially ominous scenarios if people move around as they did previously and do so without taking precautions. In California and Florida, the death rate could spike to roughly 1,000 a day by July without efforts to mitigate the spread, according to the report.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/study-estimates-24-states-still-have-uncontrolled-coronavirus-spread/2020/05/22/d3032470-9c43-11ea-ac72-3841fcc9b35f_story.html

Not enough praying, obviously.

[bork]

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1263953059882905601

[Nintex]

For a while it was the exact opposite in The Netherlands. Old leftie boomers wrote op-ed's how 'quality of life' was more important than the duration.
And that's why they would ignore the lockdown and continue to move around cities like Amsterdam.

[Flannel Boy]

Are other countries making this a left vs right issue or are we really that fucked up

Brazil comes to mind. UK started with the wrong response.

Countries with centre-right (or centre-right coalition) governments (or PMs) that seemed to have handled it well: Austria, Australia, Estonia, Czech Republic, Greece, Latvia, Slovakia, Hungary, Germany, Japan. Most Canadian provinces have centre-right governments, and they generally responded well.

I guess I'm thinking more the population where one side takes it seriously and the other side thinks it is a hoax and won't follow the rules until they themselves get sick and die

There are some in Canada, just not anywhere close to the extent in the US.