Doxxing Files |OT| Do not use a pandemic to make a platform wars thread

[remy]

It's actually really fucked up that people who are chiefly too lazy or arrogant to practice playing a hard game/get good at it use disabled people as a scapegoat/shield in the dumbass difficulty argument.

[VomKriege]

Also that dude is someone who perpetually acts morally superior because he's not voting Biden.

 

[bork]

https://www.resetera.com/threads/why-women-criticise-sexualised-character-designs-ot2-i-have-no-pants-and-i-must-scream-read-op.65064/page-388#post-42500979

Which just shows how immature they are as people. Dudes in their 30s.

On a related note.

https://twitter.com/sophink_/status/1293294364924534787

That character on the right would fall over and have back problems, a doctor would probably legit ask that she have a breast reduction for health reasons.

Absolutely correct- there are no real women with these proportions and--
https://twitter.com/Shibukaho/status/1294041645067902977

 
 

[Nintex]

Bork defending our waifu's against the gaijin bigots of ResetEra

[HaughtyFrank]

The yuoke dude worries me a little. He seems to be obsessed with defending last of us.

[bork]

Bork defending our waifu's against the gaijin bigots of ResetEra

https://twitter.com/Shibukaho/status/1293540690962477056

[bork]

https://twitter.com/KoRadicles/status/1293926071218257920

 

[VomKriege]

You folks are giving Trump way more credit than he's even capable of.

Relax.

It's weird that, for some, outrage has nosedived in inverse proportion to the actual Trump fuckery.
 

[bork]

[Transhuman]

Adding an infinite health no-clip godmode is exactly like adding subtitles to a movie for deaf people

[Pissy F Benny]

It's getting unreal how aggressive some people are at the prospect of not wanting every game to have an easy mode.

Yeah its unreal how people like a video game so much it makes them think disabled people aren't worth thinking about. Calm down, disabled people, there are always other forums for you! Because that's all they can look forward to, getting shuffled out of your sight so you can enjoy your game. Don't get HUFFY now.

Jesus Christ.
I feel pretty welcome on this site actually. Thanks for the concern though.

 
Pretty refreshing to read this for once.

probably an alt right troll lying 

[Nintex]

You folks are giving Trump way more credit than he's even capable of.

Relax.

It's weird that, for some, outrage has nosedived in inverse proportion to the actual Trump fuckery.
 

The Trump post office fuckery is a sight to behold and he's not even denying that he's doing it on purpose 

[bork]

The yuoke dude worries me a little. He seems to be obsessed with defending last of us.

Seems just as full of shit/insane as the rest of them!

Ugh. Isn't that the character Japan's Red Cross used for their Blood Drive campaign?

https://twitter.com/UnseenJapanSite/status/1183682038173450240

Obviously this campaign worked really well if you still remember this shit months later. 

[bork]

You folks are giving Trump way more credit than he's even capable of.

Relax.

It's weird that, for some, outrage has nosedived in inverse proportion to the actual Trump fuckery.
 

The Trump post office fuckery is a sight to behold and he's not even denying that he's doing it on purpose 

I dunno.  I feel like Trump doesn't really have to do anything for the USPS to fuck up and not come through.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

[close]

[Uncle]

I'm not against difficulty options but I'm also not against a game being exactly what the developers intended to release, no more no less

a game without easy mode is usually made that way for a reason

and on a broader level the games themselves are difficulty/accessibility options

don't feel like getting kicked in the dick today? boot up skyrim instead of dark souls

[thisismyusername]

You folks are giving Trump way more credit than he's even capable of.

Relax.

It's weird that, for some, outrage has nosedived in inverse proportion to the actual Trump fuckery.
 

The Trump post office fuckery is a sight to behold and he's not even denying that he's doing it on purpose 

I dunno.  I feel like Trump doesn't really have to do anything for the USPS to fuck up and not come through.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

[close]

That's because Bush did the Coup De Gracé. Mandating that they pay retirement funds for like 50 years (WTF) when they just were barely in the black killed the post office.

[Straight Edge]

Accessibility != Difficulty.

[bork]

https://twitter.com/SophNar0747/status/1294266072686895104

[HaughtyFrank]

RE is eating up this Ubisoft firing while the guy, at least from what we know, didn't seem to do anything too horrible.

If you are asking about Ismail, he's (well, probably was) a married man caught cheating, and he kept lying and lying to both parts of the equation. That's not the biggest issue though, apparently he tried to flirt with quite a lot of women at conventions and stuff, including the girlfriend of Loomer, a pretty big user of the AC community.

Scandalous.

[Don Rumata]

Cheating on your wife = you losing your job.

For a bunch of atheists, they sure love casting people out for their sins!

https://twitter.com/jasonschreier/status/1294260716086624256

This is what counts as a position of power? She was a fan of the game, not an employee. 
Idgi, but i'm assuming Yves will just sacrifice any scapegoat at this point.

[Nintex]

They're maybe trying to stop Jim Sterling from posting Ubisoft harassment hot takes all day every day 

[Pissy F Benny]

jason is just jelly that he can't "abuse his position of power" to get some snatch cos hes an ugly dweeb

[HaughtyFrank]

Cheating on your wife = you losing your job.

For a bunch of atheists, they sure love casting people out for their sins!

https://twitter.com/jasonschreier/status/1294260716086624256

This is what counts as a position of power? She was a fan of the game, not an employee. 
Idgi, but i'm assuming Yves will just sacrifice any scapegoat at this point.

Some years ago everyone was pissed at Henry Cavill's metoo comment and yet RE seems very convinced that if you're a celebrity it's inherently wrong to date a fan.

[Nintex]

jason is just jelly that he can't "abuse his position of power" to get some snatch cos hes an ugly dweeb

Jason Schreier thinks he's Lenin 

[Pissy F Benny]

maybe he can learn what real sexual harassment is from his boss mini mike

[GreatSageEqualOfHeaven]

Accessibility != Difficulty.

Weird how the people who literally write for a living managed to conflate Accessibility, Complexity and Difficulty into all being synonyms, and all at around the same time they started getting dunked on for being shit at a major part of their job so that they could turn around and say "Hey, look at all these GAMERGATERS harassing THE DISABLED"


Accessibility:
 - Providing subtitles
 - Not relying on purely colour to signify information but shape as well and not using low contrast colours or shades that can't be discerned by various types of colour blindness
 - Remappable controls

Difficulty:
 - Reflexive skill checks (eg 'input windows')
 - Player resource management (eg distribution of healthpacks / ammo)
 - Damage : Health ratios for Player vs NPC

Complexity:
 - Genre specific mechanics (eg Last-hitting, Kiting, Circle strafing, Cross-ups, Resource denial)
 - Memorisation tests (eg crafting recipes, elemental weakness types, input strings)
 - Systemic inter-relationships (eg 'aggro management', Min-maxing build guides)

In a venn diagram some stuff might meet in the middle, but you're talking about three different areas and anyone being paid to write about this shit should have enough fucking common sense to realise that

[Don Rumata]

I piss on author's intent.
Give me that "auto complete QTEs" and "hold for multiple button press" options. 
Call it "accessibility", call it "i can't be arsed mode", whatever.

[remy]

I have no issue with easy mode/can't be assed mode, but hiding behind people having disabilities as a shield for not being able to be assed is fucking lame. Brolylegs played sfiv tournements without arms for gods sake

[HardcoreRetro]

I piss on author's intent.
Give me that "auto complete QTEs" and "hold for multiple button press" options. 
Call it "accessibility", call it "i can't be arsed mode", whatever.

When I had to press square for an emotional moment in Last of Us Part II it hit me.

Games truly are the highest art.

[Don Rumata]

I have no issue with easy mode/can't be assed mode, but hiding behind people having disabilities as a shield for not being able to be assed is fucking lame. Brolylegs played sfiv tournements without arms for gods sake

I don't think it's a binary choice like that.
Brolylegs isn't the standard of every (disabled) person out there, and not all disabilities are the same.
Nevertheless, no one should be forced to include anything, but it's a good thing to consider if you can and don't think it'll fundamentally ruin the design.
That is something i think a lot of hardcore gamers overblow, as if most games had incredibly fine tuned levels of challenge.
Kind of like the whole debate about how Dark Souls would be completely destroyed with a pause button, and then Sekiro included one just fine.

BUT i also think some of these "accessibility" options they included, are straight up fun to play with.
For example i played Last of Us 2 on hard, but then had some fun with the slow motion feature. 

My annoyance is more in how, as usual, a reasonable discussion has been made into some unrelated ideological battle.

[GreatSageEqualOfHeaven]

Does Sekiro have Phantoms?
Because AFAICS the reason DS doesn't have a pause button is because it was explicitly designed to be an always online experience, and as such doesn't pause for the same reasons there's no pause button in WoW.

The fact that some people just wanted a more punishing, slower and more methodical Zelda doesn't really effect that.

[Don Rumata]

Does Sekiro have Phantoms?
Because AFAICS the reason DS doesn't have a pause button is because it was explicitly designed to be an always online experience, and as such doesn't pause for the same reasons there's no pause button in WoW.

The fact that some people just wanted a more punishing, slower and more methodical Zelda doesn't really effect that.

Yeah, but they do have an offline mode specifically, the game doesn't stop working entirely when the you're not online.
So the argument at the time became that having pause (in offline, naturally) would ruin the balancing of the difficulty, as you'd have time to pause and think about your actions, which i always found like a massive mental stretch to justify it.

[bork]

https://www.resetera.com/threads/gamasutra-new-allegations-show-the-cycle-of-abuse-and-misconduct-runs-deep-at-ubisoft.268110/post-42537198

i'm at the point now where i'm probably not even buying scott pilgrim from them if they put it back up

(Image removed from quote.)

Yeah, sure.  Sure you won't buy it after begging for it to come back for years. 

[Tuckers Law]

I piss on author's intent.
Give me that "auto complete QTEs" and "hold for multiple button press" options. 
Call it "accessibility", call it "i can't be arsed mode", whatever.

Just drop all pretense and call it Journalist Mode.  My mistake, I meant Press Mode.

[HaughtyFrank]

https://www.resetera.com/threads/gamasutra-new-allegations-show-the-cycle-of-abuse-and-misconduct-runs-deep-at-ubisoft.268110/post-42537198

i'm at the point now where i'm probably not even buying scott pilgrim from them if they put it back up

(Image removed from quote.)

Inside Ubi headquarters

[Don Rumata]

I piss on author's intent.
Give me that "auto complete QTEs" and "hold for multiple button press" options. 
Call it "accessibility", call it "i can't be arsed mode", whatever.

Just drop all pretense and call it Journalist Mode.  My mistake, I meant Press Mode.

I mean from my perspective, they should just release everything on PC, so i can use CheatEngine as i see fit. 

[GreatSageEqualOfHeaven]

I piss on author's intent.
Give me that "auto complete QTEs" and "hold for multiple button press" options. 
Call it "accessibility", call it "i can't be arsed mode", whatever.

Just drop all pretense and call it Journalist Mode.  My mistake, I meant Press Mode.

I mean from my perspective, they should just release everything on PC, so i can use CheatEngine as i see fit. 

Yeah, the PC is the only platform where serious attempts to provide accessibility beyond hacked up controllers is even possible, due to being open.

But charities like Special Effect aren't going to be sending out $350 gift bags and halo cat helmets

[thisismyusername]

Yeah, the PC is the only platform where serious attempts to provide accessibility beyond hacked up controllers is even possible, due to being open.

*ahem*

[GreatSageEqualOfHeaven]

Right, and it's basically an officially licenced biscuit board which I suspect came about after an embarassing conversation where MS wanted to donate a bunch of Xboxes to vets and were told they didn't want them because they couldn't use them.

But its still just a hacked up controller, even if it means charities don't have to kitbash off the shelf controllers to work on console anymore because the markup on accessories is huge and platform owners don't want to give that up by allowing generic HID inputs, and MS deserve props for doing a good deed in a way that Sony could not give less of a fuck.

But like I said, beyond hacking up controllers, the PC is the only platform where accessibility features can be tailored at a software level, which includes things like onscreen magnifiers, automated macros, input smoothing, font scaling or replacing, etc

[GreatSageEqualOfHeaven]

https://www.resetera.com/threads/tig-notaro-to-replace-chris-delia-in-zack-snyders-army-of-the-dead.268401/

2 button meme for eras irrational hatred of zack snyder vs irrational love of tig notaro for how this threads gonna go

[thisismyusername]

Shut the fuck up, simp. @21337.

[Uncle]

spoiler (click to show/hide)

Holy shit.

Are there a bunch of missing pets in this guy's neighborhood?

https://www.resetera.com/threads/analysis-why-does-sonys-operating-profit-forecast-indicate-ps5-will-probably-cost-less-than-499.268251/

I hope it comes out at 599 just for the lulz.

[close]

It will be a long read guys
.

 

[Lonewulfeus]

Imagine if that person spent as much time playing video games as analyzing whatever that shit is.  Also imagine spending the rest of this page quoting it

[zepblackstar]

da fuck?

Xbox and PS5 are basically PCs with their own personal operating system this time around. $600 is fooling the stans

[Nintex]

Some of those idiots really think the PS5 and Xbox Series X are going to cost $399 

[Uncle]

Imagine if that person spent as much time playing video games as analyzing whatever that shit is.  Also imagine spending the rest of this page quoting it

It actually looks like we've been talking about more than we have because people keep quoting the text version when they can clearly just erase that part in their quotation.

In fact, the image version of my post already automatically collapses itself, so it's not nearly as bad you make it out to be.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

you should've wrapped all the images in left tags like I did 

[close]

[Clockwork5]

If we first assume... then we can suppose.... then if we project... we can then assume ...which all shows that I am right.

[VomKriege]

This is why I come to Era

[EightBitNate]

spoiler (click to show/hide)

Holy shit.

Are there a bunch of missing pets in this guy's neighborhood?

https://www.resetera.com/threads/analysis-why-does-sonys-operating-profit-forecast-indicate-ps5-will-probably-cost-less-than-499.268251/

I hope it comes out at 599 just for the lulz.

It will be a long read guys

Informations before we start :
Q1 = April-June / Q2 = July-Sept / Q3 = Oct-Dec / Q4 = Jan-March
PS5 = PS5 standard / PS5 DE = PS5 Digital Edition
PS4 sold 4.5m units during Q3 FY13 (Oct-Dec) and 3.1m during Q4 FY13 (Jan-March 2014)
PS4 BOM according to research firm IHS was $372, and higher at $381 once per-unit cost of assembly included
PS4 was sold at $399 and was sold at a loss at first, probably between $40-60, easily offset by the purchase of a game & PS+
We assume here that WSJ (Wall Street Journal), Nikkei and Bloomberg are right with their various reports about PS5
PS5 BOM (Bill of Materials) would be around $450 per unit
Sony reportedly increasing PS5 production to 10m units by March 2021 (end of Q4 FY20), up from 6m previously reported
So with a cost of $381 for Sony's PS4, we can add around $50-60 for additional expenses (inventory, distribution, transport, etc...) if PS4 was sold at a loss at around $40-60
If we follow the same path for PS5, we would add $10 for the cost of assembly with a total of $460 and then $55 for the additional expenses
--> PS5 total cost would be around $515
--> PS5 DE total cost would be around $487 ($515 minus $28 for optical drive)


Now look at the table below, for each quarter, there are some colors (think traffic light) :
Red : Biggest number ever for that quarter
Orange : 2nd biggest number ever for that quarter
Green : 3rd biggest number ever for that quarter
Blue is my own predictions for this current fiscal year
As you can see, for Revenue and Operating Profit, PlayStation saw its 3 biggest results for each quarter during PS4 generation
(except few ones)

You can also see that during Q3 FY13 (PS4 release), PlayStation saw ¥12.4bn Profit and the next quarter, ¥10.7bn Loss

For FY2020, Sony expects ¥2500bn Revenue and ¥240bn Op. Profit

Disclaimer : If you add up Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 Revenue fo FY2020, you won't have ¥2500bn Revenue but ¥2464bn, I probably underestimated my Q2 Revenue forecast

I will focus this analysis on Profits, but will talk about Revenue a bit too when it's relevant.
I will also explain quarters from previous years to put these into context and to explain why I chose my estimates !

Of course, I will skip Q1 Results because we already had these results some time ago.

Q2 FY20 (July-Sept) :
Q2 FY18 had ¥90.6bn Profit, biggest profit ever for PlayStation during Q2
It had Fortnite + Spider-Man and major releases like Tomb Raider (and annual sports titles)

Q2 FY19 reached ¥65bn Profit with a weaker line up and without first party games
It had Control, MH Iceborne, Man of Medan and Borderlands 3 (+ annual sports titles)

Q2 FY20 will have TLOU Part II spillovers + Ghost of Tsushima success + HZD on PC
+ major releases like Tony Hawk and Avengers (+ annual sports titles)
+ strong F2P (Fortnite, Warzone) and the launch of Hyper Scape

Here is a list of games released during Q2 in previous years
Red titles = first-party titles or major releases

Click to expand...I also expect bigger Revenue from PS Store year-on-year due to :
Digital growth (compared to last year)

• COVID (from countries with still partial lockdown, people who buys more digital now because they changed their habits)
  Bigger F2P spendings (Warzone was not there last year for example, Fortnite is stronger than last year [Epic expect bigger Revenue this year])
  Less people on vacation this summer combined with huge back-catalog available for cheap on PS Store with regular sales

Bigger Revenue from Services too due to record numbers of PS+ subs + growth of PS Now subs too
Previous quarter (Q1 FY20) saw +$100M Revenue year on year and I expect the same this Q2 FY20 due to strong PS+ line up in July/Aug.
And I said strong PS+ line-up because they had record user engagement on social media during their announcements (NBA 2K20/Tomb Raider and MW2 Remastered/Fall Guys), PS+ subs will likely go up quarter-on-quarter and obviously year-on-year.

Here is a table where you can see my Revenue forecast for Q2, it will be, without a doubt, bigger than last year
I expect Software and Services to represent 83% of total PlayStation Revenue during this quarter, where margins are better and therefore better profits (vs Hardware revenue)



If Q2 FY19 without first-party games, without Warzone, with a weaker Fortnite (than this year) and an equivalent slate of third-party releases, reached ¥65bn Profits.
Well Q2 FY20 with all the above-mentioned reasons, makes me think Profits will be better this year.

That would give +¥9bn (+$95M) in Profits year-on-year for a growth in Software/Services Revenue of ¥55.1bn ($540M)
So an operating margin of 16.33% which would be realistic given first-party releases this quarter (Ghost/TLOU2)

For the total results of Q2 FY20, ¥473bn Revenue and ¥74bn Profits would give an operating margin of 15.6%
It was 16.5% in Q2 FY18 (thanks to huge Spider-Man success) and 14.3% in Q2 FY19, still a good operating margin but less than Q2 FY18 due to the lack of first party titles (which are highly profitable)

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, we have Q1 results (from their financial results that you can find in this thread) + we have just done Q2 forecast
I remind that Sony expect ¥240bn Profits this fiscal year.

Q1 Profits saw ¥124bn and Q2 Profits would reach ¥74bn = ¥198bn Profits
So at this point, Sony expects only ¥42bn ($393M) Profits for Q3 and Q4 combined

I repost the same table to avoid you to scroll up/down to see the numbers !

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Now Q3 FY20 (Oct-Dec) :
We will start with Q3 FY13 (PS4 release), surprisingly Sony had ¥12.4bn Profit thanks to PS4 release
The amount of games & PS+ subs sold managed to offset the loss for each PS4
Profit also came from cost reductions (PS3)

Q3 FY17 had ¥85.4bn Profit, biggest profit ever for PlayStation during Q3
Explained by big increase for sales on PS Store (+43% year on year) with the release of Fortnite Battle Royale + increase in software units sales + GT Sport release
Combined with huge PS4 sales + big increase in Services revenue (+35%, to reach $600m for that quarter)

Q3 FY18 had ¥73.1bn Profit, decrease but still the 3rd biggest Profit ever for PlayStation during Q3
The decrease is explained by PS4 lower sales (8.1m this Q3 vs 9.0m in Q3 FY17) and promotional prices during Holiday season.
Despite really bigger spends on Store (+52% to reach $3.13B, 2nd biggest spending ever during a quarter on Store behind record Q1 FY20) + bigger revenue from Services (+$100M year-on-year) + Spider-Man keep selling

Q3 FY19 had ¥53.5bn Profit, big decrease due to no Spider-Man and Death Stranding not having the effect Sony expected (as stated in their financials) + big decrease in PS4 sales revenue (6.0m units this Q3 vs 8.1m previous year) and a weaker line up of third party games (compared to AC Odyssey/RDR2/Black Ops 4/Battlefield 5 in 2018)

Q3 FY20 will have the one the strongest Q3 line-up this generation combined with the huge install base of PS4 and PS5 backward compatibility
FIFA is now a Q3 release, unlike previous years
Crash 4 will likely perform very well on PS4 and is bigger than 2019's releases like GR Breakpoint / The Outer Worlds / NFS Heat / Death Stranding
+ likely strong performance of Watch Dogs Legion and AC Valhalla
+ one of the biggest release of the year, Cyberpunk 2077 which will probably make a good part of its initial sales on PS4 (like The Witcher 3)
+ COD 2020 release

Here is a list of games released during Q2 in previous years
Red titles = first-party titles or major releases

Click to expand...For Q3 FY20 estimate, we know that PS5 will have Miles Morales at launch
A game that will be highly profitable, being a first party game

We will assume a $399 for PS5 DE/$449 for PS5 and that it will sell as good as PS4, so 4.5m units
We will now do 2 hypotheses, one with PS5 costing $487/$515 to Sony like I said at the start of the OP and one with PS5 costing $472/$500

Afterwards, another 2 hypotheses with PS5 costing $487/$515 to Sony but one with $449/499 retail price, the other with $499/549
The optical drive would cost about $28 in this hypothesis

Hypothesis 1 : $487/$515 cost for Sony with a retail price of $399/$449
So it would be a $66 net loss for each PS5 sold and $88 loss for each PS5 DE
We will assume that 20% of PS5 sold are PS5 DE so 80% is PS5 Standard (and then 40%/60% for the high range)

20%/80% : (3.6m PS5 x $66) + (0.9m PS5 DE x $87) = $238M + $79M = 317M loss
40%/60% : 178M + 157M = 335M loss

Hypothesis 2 : $472/$500 cost for Sony with a retail price of $399/$449
So it would be a $51 net loss for each PS5 sold and $73 loss for each PS5 DE
We will assume that 20% of PS5 sold are PS5 DE so 80% is PS5 Standard (and then 40%/60% for the high range)

20%/80% : (3.6m PS5 x $51) + (0.9m PS5 DE x $73) = $184M + $66M = 250M loss
40%.60% : 138M + 131M = 269M loss

Hypothesis 3 : $487/$515 cost for Sony but with a retail price of $449/$499
So it would be a $16 net loss for each PS5 sold and $38 loss for each PS5 DE
We will assume that 20% of PS5 sold are PS5 DE so 80% is PS5 Standard (and then 40%/60% for the high range)

20%/80% : (3.6m PS5 x $16) + (0.9m PS5 DE x $38) = $57.6M + $34M = 92M loss
40%.60% : 43M + 34M = 77M loss

Hypothesis 4 : $487/$515 cost for Sony but with a retail price of $499/$549
So Sony would gain $34 for each PS5 sold and $12 for each PS5 DE sold
We will assume that 20% of PS5 sold are PS5 DE so 80% is PS5 Standard (and then 40%/60% for the high range)

20%/80% : (3.6m PS5 x $34) + (0.9m PS5 DE x $12) = $122M + $11M = $133M profits
40%.60% : 92M + 11M = 103M profits

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Before I continue, just take a look at the Network Revenue (FY13/18/19 + my estimates for FY20)
Like before, Red means biggest number but for any quarter, Orange is 2nd biggest and Green is 3rd biggest

With only ¥50bn Network Revenue in Q3 FY13 (PS4 release), Sony managed to have ¥12.4bn Profit during that quarter
And now, during Q3 FY18/19, there are more than ¥390bn Network Revenue, coming from PS Store and PS+/Now
It's almost 8x the Revenue of Q3 FY13

I estimated ¥435bn Network Revenue for Q3 FY20 which would be 8.7x Q3 FY13 Network Revenue
That would also be the 2nd biggest Network Revenue during any quarter
(4-5m PS+ subs in Q3 FY13 vs probably 47m+ PS+/Now subs in Q3 FY20)

--------------------------------------------------------------------

I repost the same table to avoid you to scroll up/down to see the numbers !

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Even with a weak Q3 (like Q3 FY19), Sony still posted ¥53.5bn Profit ($491M)
This Q3 FY20 has a lot more of major third party releases + highly profitable and probably successful first party (Miles Morales) compared to last Q3 (FY19) and next-gen releases should boost spending on PS Store compared to last Q3

Even if Hardware Revenue will increase the overall Revenue from the entire PlayStation division,
(I expect biggest Revenue ever during any quarter for any platform holder with about ¥865bn/$8.08B)
Software & Services Revenue should increase too year-on-year thanks to bigger line-up of third party releases + first-party release + next-gen boost

If we sum up :
Big releases planned for Q2 went to Q3 (FIFA/Cyberpunk)
Bigger releases planned this Q3 (for Sony and publishers)
Bigger Revenue from Software year-on-year due to bigger line up overall
Bigger Revenue from Services year-on-year
Those Network Revenue (PS Store + Services) are 8x higher than the same quarter in 2013

All guesses pointed to a better Revenue for this Q3 than Q3 FY19 but also better profits ! (so minimum ¥53.5bn like Q3FY19)
My forecast would have been ¥70-75bn Profits (if there wasn't any loss due to the launch of a new console)

But I remind you that Sony expects only ¥42bn ($393M) Profits for Q3 and Q4 combined

If we take into account an expected loss of about $317-335M (¥34-36bn) due to PS5 launch (for $399/$449 retail price)
My forecast of ¥70bn Profits would go down to about ¥34-36bn Profits for Q3 FY20

In the table, I forecast ¥29bn Profits to not exceed the ¥240bn Profits Sony forecasted for the fiscal year !

--------------------------------------------------------------------

I repost the same table to avoid you to scroll up/down to see the numbers !

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Now Q4 FY20 (Jan-Mar 2021) :
Q4 FY13 (Jan-Mar 2014) saw ¥10.7bn Loss despite huge PS4 sales (3.0 units) with about 5.7m PS+ subs
That loss shows how weak was PS3 software wise and how low PlayStation Network spendings were
Take a look at the table below to see the Network Revenue during Q4 FY13 (only ¥70bn)
And compare that Network Revenue to PSN nowadays (5x higher now)

Q4 FY18 (Jan-Mar 2019) posted ¥63.9bn Profit, biggest profit ever for PlayStation during Q4
Explained by Fortnite and big releases (AC7, KH3, RE2 Remake, Far Cry New Dawn, Anthem, Sekiro, The Division 2, Metro Exodus) + Apex Legends release

Q4 FY19 (Jan-Mar 2020) posted ¥46.2bn Profit, 2nd biggest profit ever for PlayStation during Q4
Explained by Fortnite/Apex + Warzone release + big Q3 releases keep selling (MW/Jedi Fallen Order) + some major releases despite being weaker (DBZ Kakarot, Nioh 2, KH3 Re Mind, Dreams, Doom Eternal, MW2 Remastered)
But especially major spending on Store due to lockdowns (almost flat from Q4 FY18 despite way weaker line-up of games)

Q4 FY20 (Jan-March 2021)
With a probably big 1st party game planned for that quarter + PSN stronger than ever (Store + Services) + strong PS4 game sales + PS5 games sales, unlike Q4 FY13, Q4 FY20 will be likely profitable (a forecast of ¥35-45bn Profits would have been realistic)

We will assume 3.0m PS5 units sold with the same loss than Hypothesis 1
That would give $211-223M loss (¥22.6-23.9bn)

Overall, Q4 Profits would be ¥11-21bn ($103-196M)
--> In the table, I put ¥13bn for Q4 Profits forecast


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In conclusion, I think I showed why, in my opinion, Operating Profit forecast from Sony definitely hints to a price at less than $499.

You can't have the biggest Revenue ever during any quarter (Q3 FY20), of course inflated by Hardware revenue boost but also with Software & Services Revenue this high (as previously explained/shown) and having not this much profits, especially when you have a major first party planned for launch !

You can't have a record breaking Q1 FY20 with more than ¥124bn Profits ($1.152B) and forecast "only" ¥240bn for the the entire fiscal year when you will post some great profits during Q2 following TLOU Part II/Ghost success, as well as HZD PC release

Q2+Q3+Q4 FY19 Profits reached ¥164.6bn ($1.52B)
Q2+Q3+Q4 FY20 Profits would be ¥116bn ($1.08B) with a better/bigger line-up of first party games, third party games and stronger F2P ?

The only explanation for only ¥240bn (2.24B) Profits is because Sony expect some loss with PS5 launch, and the loss will come from Hardware.
A price under $499 would explain why they expect only ¥240bn ($2.24B) Profits and not ¥300bn+ ($2.80B+)

 

That's not even all the text mark-ups... the OP looks like this:
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Imagine if that person spent as much time playing video games as analyzing whatever that shit is.  Also imagine spending the rest of this page quoting it

It actually looks like we've been talking about more than we have because people keep quoting the text version when they can clearly just erase that part in their quotation.

In fact, the image version of my post already automatically collapses itself, so it's not nearly as bad you make it out to be.

[close]

Quoting for posterity

[Straight Edge]

 

[HaughtyFrank]

[Nintex]

How era thinks these decisions are made:
*100's of people calculating the perfect price for the new console based on production costs, value and demand*

What actually happened somewhere in Amsterdam early 2020.

Herman: "So we will launch the PS5 this year, the production cost is ~$400 so we figured $450"

Sony CEO: "Make it $499 so we turn a profit"

Sony CFO: "Actually $599 sounds good more expensive like Apple"

Herman: "Maybe too expensive?"

Sony CEO: "You know, 550, we have two fives. My brother in law says consumers love 5's now. How about 555, PlayStation 5, $555"

Sony COO: "Wow, that's so great"

Herman: "Oh my god boss, you are a genius"

[Nintex]

Oops, Xbox price possibly leaked through a Monster promotion.

Price = Xbox Series X, value = $599

[Nintex]

"Halp I'm starving, I can't breathe and I was removed from the voter rolls"

"Wow we're very sorry to hear that but can I interest you in this $599 Xbox Series X"

"Does it have a new HALO?"

"Eventually but it runs thousands of your favorite Xbox games in 4K"

"Isn't that what my $499 Xbox X was for?"

"Well, this one does it better"

[Hermit]

what the fuck is happening

[Nintex]

"Oh I couldn't help but overhear your conversation just now"

"So you can help me?"

"Certainly!, I'm offering you a much better value! For just $649 you get a brand new PlayStation 5"

"That sounds even more expensive"

"Well as I said, our value is much better. First you get a brand new TouchSense(TM) controller and of course a pre-installed copy of the latest installment in our hit Astrobot series"

"Well as I said that sounds very expensive and I'm kinda broke right now"

"Don't worry friend, if you insist we also have a limited number of PlayStation 5 All Digital systems just for consumers such as yourself. For just $599 this is a great entry point into the world of PlayStation"

[thisismyusername]

what the fuck is happening

21337 not shutting the fuck up and everyone quoting his bitch ass.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

Post hog.

[close]

[Hermit]

what the fuck is happening

21337 not shutting the fuck up and everyone quoting his bitch ass.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

Post hog.

[close]

I'm drinking tonight so hog will be posted

[thisismyusername]

what the fuck is happening

21337 not shutting the fuck up and everyone quoting his bitch ass.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

Post hog.

[close]

I'm drinking tonight so hog will be posted

oh god oh fuck top of the page

I'll hold you to that, then.

[GreatSageEqualOfHeaven]

(Image removed from quote.)
Honestly if you (general you) look at this and think there's nothing wrong with it, you might be part of the problem.

Yeah I still don't get it.

It's a prom. It's a pretty dress. It's not being worn as a costume. Is there something about the pose I'm not getting? Nothing about the picture seems wrong.

You said here's a hint, and then just linked the photo 3 more times. Could you elaborate?

The qipao is fine. What’s not fine is “hey guys you know what would be really funny, if all the dudes did the vape naysh sign and all the girls put their hands together in prayer like a Chinese stereotype” which is almost certainly how that photo went down. You don’t get that kind of coordination without intent and that pose in particular comes from decades of stereotypical depictions of Chinese.

They went for the nearest “Chinese” joke they could think of and it was a stereotype. At least they didn’t slant their eyes like those football players.

What's more likely, the guys decided to do a dumb hand sign from a Youtube meme, and the girls decided to do a stereotype around one person's outfit, or the girls were also doing a dumb "papa bless" pose from the same YouTube personality as what the guys are doing?

I honestly think this is more likely.