After these riots there is a (good) chance Trump will get reelected.
Nothing to change some allies and undecided people into enemies then some "if you are not with us then you are against us and a racist" rhetoric and seeing your country burn.
I'll be the one to agree in a sense: Riots do have a voting affect. There's been studies done on this...
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/06/will-todays-riots-spur-electoral-backlash-like-1967s.html
I however don't agree in the sense that "Trump will win, for sure." I was 80% sure of it when Bernie dropped out (#NoTNoShade) but now? I'm about 60-65% sure. It's iffy only because a lot of folks in America are tired of the police and the system abuse of the police.
Now where I'll agree with you on "Trump will win," is that it depends on white folks. Do they balk at the riots in greater numbers than the ones that agree? Hard to say. They may, but I can't say with any certainty that they do right now.
Will they vote in greater numbers than the other races/PoC/whatever you want to put as a term here? Eh... maybe? Thing is, whites are a declining majority with birthrates/etc. But that point hasn't been reached yet, if research/estimations are holding (IIRC, it's another 4 election cycles away? 2040-2050 or so before the White Majority is a minority in America).
Trump is doing a dismal job, everyone knows it. The question is: Will his voting base turn out to vote him again MORE than the folks that want to get him out. AND know the Electorial College system (aka: Midwest gets bigger votes than NYC/NY state) to beat because "popular vote ain't shit!" like Gore and Clinton should have drilled into the folks head after the previous 20 years that had them lose despite popular vote.
That's where I get my 65% confidence in that: The "rural" states are the ones that generally probably won't see too much brutality. Yeah, Michigan and Minnasota have seen it, but smaller towns generally don't. That's where the question of "is the message hitting?" comes to. Do those rural places that maybe have 1-2 cops seeing them understand that those cops MAY not be as good as they appear? *shrug* Can't say. Depends on if the message sticks until November, 4-5 months away.
BUT ANYWAY: You're Polish/non-American. Like Trashy (and Sage): You should shut the fuck up. Because the police brutality issue going on in America doesn't affect your day-to-day.
Trump is handling the situation like an absolute bitch.
However bad Biden is as a contender, i can't see these riots helping him [Trump] in the slightest.
That said, regarding the big text: You guys are constantly shoving your ass in everybody's face, so you'll just have to suffer everybody talking about your shit regardless of their qualification.
Sure. But a Polish person living in
Europe coming in and going "
This is why Europe is better" (when they have the same issues just different) can promptly
fuck off.
As for your former point: Yeah, Trump is bungling it. But that doesn't mean shit to his base. That's what a lot of you are missing: Bush absolutely bungled the 9/11 response, and yet he got voted in a second time. I'm on the opinion of "don't underestimate the power of stupid people in America" because 1) it's been proven repeatedly and 2) no matter how bad Trump is, if his base has stuck with him over the past 4 years, they'll stick with him in the election.
So again: It comes down to: Which voting bloc will turn out on the Electorial College map. The "ORANGE MAN BAD" is popular opinion, yes.
BUT is it the "electorial" opinion in places that aren't NYC, LA, Miami, Detroit... etc.