Author Topic: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town  (Read 212393 times)

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Nintex

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1320 on: July 13, 2022, 01:25:20 PM »
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Nintex

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1321 on: July 13, 2022, 05:13:19 PM »
You can have a guy that according to the most reliable sources put out a secret service into the hospital or whatever this is.

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1547224469634273280

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Nintex

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Tasty

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1323 on: July 14, 2022, 12:30:31 PM »
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1546134471841292294

Biden officially joining the sub 30 club.

:thinking This feels historical this early into his first term.

Living in rural CT I definitely see Biden bashing pretty much daily, but I figured that was just the area

HaughtyFrank

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benjipwns

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1325 on: July 14, 2022, 01:19:16 PM »
AOC is definitely in the top 1% of Congresspeople attractiveness though. We can't punish a man for telling the truth.

Transhuman

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1326 on: July 14, 2022, 01:29:28 PM »
She did the right thing by not giving him the reaction he wanted by responding angrily, but posting about him afterwards was stupid because that's also what he wanted.

We can't punish a man for telling the truth.

"Big booty"??

benjipwns

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Nintex

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1328 on: July 14, 2022, 01:37:20 PM »
https://twitter.com/PabloReports/status/1547414088363511808

AOC yelling at people in front of the capitol seems to be a new trend.
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Nintex

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1329 on: July 14, 2022, 02:36:30 PM »
:thinking This feels historical this early into his first term.

Living in rural CT I definitely see Biden bashing pretty much daily, but I figured that was just the area
It all went to shit after they lost Afghanistan despite boasting that they wouldn't and denying the things that would literally happen hours later.
That's when it was clear that something wasn't quite right. Before that everyone was sort of in 'wait and see' mode hoping things would return to normal.

Biden didn't even fire the people responsible, nor did they resign. It's like the Obama administration, an economy down the tubes and one foreign policy disaster after another sugar coated by the media.
But they have to stick with Biden because Kamala somehow combines the worst of Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin into one incredibly dumb and unlikable person.

Like I said earlier, the Democrats now have to depend on some kind of military victory in Ukraine, because time is running out for any of their policies to turn around the economy.
Winning Ukraine would likely mean ousting Putin, which would open up the door to cheap Russian energy again. The problem with Ukraine though is that there isn't a strategy or an idea of what 'victory' looks like.
The US and most of their allies just say: "We need to support Ukraine without any limits" and pour more weapons into the country even openly declaring that they don't see the point in diplomacy.
It's absolute madness that we keep fighting and supporting wars without objectives.
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Cauliflower Of Love

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1330 on: July 14, 2022, 04:41:39 PM »
Witness Protection says what?

Potato

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1331 on: July 14, 2022, 07:38:23 PM »
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1547397629260226560

 :lol

That is a pretty shitty thing to do
I don't think anyone with a functioning brain or moral code thinks he's the one who looks good in that video.

Edit: Or that he leaves with any of his dignity intact (not that you would have any in the first place to do something like this).
« Last Edit: July 14, 2022, 07:42:24 PM by Potato »
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Tasty

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1332 on: July 14, 2022, 09:12:47 PM »
:thinking This feels historical this early into his first term.

Living in rural CT I definitely see Biden bashing pretty much daily, but I figured that was just the area
It all went to shit after they lost Afghanistan despite boasting that they wouldn't and denying the things that would literally happen hours later.
That's when it was clear that something wasn't quite right. Before that everyone was sort of in 'wait and see' mode hoping things would return to normal.

Biden didn't even fire the people responsible, nor did they resign. It's like the Obama administration, an economy down the tubes and one foreign policy disaster after another sugar coated by the media.
But they have to stick with Biden because Kamala somehow combines the worst of Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin into one incredibly dumb and unlikable person.

Like I said earlier, the Democrats now have to depend on some kind of military victory in Ukraine, because time is running out for any of their policies to turn around the economy.
Winning Ukraine would likely mean ousting Putin, which would open up the door to cheap Russian energy again. The problem with Ukraine though is that there isn't a strategy or an idea of what 'victory' looks like.
The US and most of their allies just say: "We need to support Ukraine without any limits" and pour more weapons into the country even openly declaring that they don't see the point in diplomacy.
It's absolute madness that we keep fighting and supporting wars without objectives.

I'm really sick of Dems being the hawks.

The one thing I'll give Donald the Dove :trumps

And Obama for Cuba. :obama

Nintex

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1333 on: July 15, 2022, 03:48:06 AM »
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1547397629260226560

 :lol

That is a pretty shitty thing to do
I don't think anyone with a functioning brain or moral code thinks he's the one who looks good in that video.

Edit: Or that he leaves with any of his dignity intact (not that you would have any in the first place to do something like this).

He's a "comedian"

https://twitter.com/WhitlockJason/status/1547701779059511307
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Potato

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1334 on: July 15, 2022, 04:24:23 AM »
As I suspected, no dignity to begin with...
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Cauliflower Of Love

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1335 on: July 15, 2022, 08:52:30 AM »

HaughtyFrank

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Nintex

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1337 on: July 15, 2022, 12:30:32 PM »
Quote
“Everyone I talk to is desperately hoping for it — desperately. I don’t know anybody who is not hoping for it,” said a Democratic operative in frequent touch with the White House. “While it has been good for my mental health that Trump is off Twitter, it also has put him to the side a little bit.”

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/donald-trump-2024-decision.html
Quote
“It’s Trumpworld, man,” the current adviser said. “It’ll be done the way we do everything else. It’ll be very last minute; it’ll be a surprise. We’ll cowboy it like 2016.”
:dead


https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1547963468585742340
 :tocry

https://twitter.com/RSBNetwork/status/1547950055428042754
 :trumps
« Last Edit: July 15, 2022, 01:27:47 PM by Nintex »
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Occam

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1338 on: July 15, 2022, 02:49:45 PM »
His [Trump's] base likes him BECAUSE he's a bumbling idiot, just like them.

That's really the gist of it all, isn't it?
504

benjipwns

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1339 on: July 15, 2022, 03:10:33 PM »
This guy

twitter.com/AriFleischer/status/1547914574686326786
Why does Ari think 2023 would be the one-year anniversary of something that happened in 2021? :hmm

Nintex

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Skullfuckers Anonymous

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Pissy F Benny

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1342 on: July 15, 2022, 07:01:42 PM »
(ice)

Tasty

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1343 on: July 15, 2022, 07:17:32 PM »
That picture incenses me. What the Fuck is Biden doing?

Potato

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1344 on: July 16, 2022, 12:35:53 AM »
(Image removed from quote.)

https://twitter.com/RepAdamSchiff/status/1547996467687616512

 :idont
If high oil prices means Newcastle can sign Lucas Paqueta and Moussa Diaby, then I'm all for it.
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Nintex

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1345 on: July 16, 2022, 06:11:35 AM »
That picture incenses me. What the Fuck is Biden doing?
They're putting together a coalition to bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran. Biden said something like: "using force as a last resort" from stopping Iran to get a nuke.
And then the Israeli PM said that the free world would stop Iran from getting a nuke whatever the cost as Biden was standing next to him. The Saudi's also align with this
https://twitter.com/Naija_PR/status/1548165113668022272

Macron was caught on camera telling Biden (or rather Blinken) the Saudi's are tapped out as far as oil is concerned and thus pressed Biden to produce more in the US instead.
The leaders of most of the Gulf States are in Saudi Arabia this weekend for a summit.

Iran is an important ally for Russia so taking them out kills 3 birds with 1 stone. Russia loses a powerful ally, Iranian oil can be used to fix the energy crisis and Iran's nuclear capability will no longer be a threat to Israel/Saudi Arabia.

The response in the region is mixed, Iraq has declared it won't join a 'Middle East NATO' and won't attack it's neighbours.
Egypt has also said that they aren't planning to join at this time but their leadership is attending the summit.
With the Russians busy in Ukraine and Turkey poised to invade Syria their allies are in no position to help Iran against a joint Israeli/Saudi/US strike.
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HaughtyFrank

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1346 on: July 16, 2022, 08:52:41 AM »

Tasty

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1347 on: July 16, 2022, 10:42:08 AM »
That picture incenses me. What the Fuck is Biden doing?
They're putting together a coalition to bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran. Biden said something like: "using force as a last resort" from stopping Iran to get a nuke.
And then the Israeli PM said that the free world would stop Iran from getting a nuke whatever the cost as Biden was standing next to him. The Saudi's also align with this
https://twitter.com/Naija_PR/status/1548165113668022272

Macron was caught on camera telling Biden (or rather Blinken) the Saudi's are tapped out as far as oil is concerned and thus pressed Biden to produce more in the US instead.
The leaders of most of the Gulf States are in Saudi Arabia this weekend for a summit.

Iran is an important ally for Russia so taking them out kills 3 birds with 1 stone. Russia loses a powerful ally, Iranian oil can be used to fix the energy crisis and Iran's nuclear capability will no longer be a threat to Israel/Saudi Arabia.

The response in the region is mixed, Iraq has declared it won't join a 'Middle East NATO' and won't attack it's neighbours.
Egypt has also said that they aren't planning to join at this time but their leadership is attending the summit.
With the Russians busy in Ukraine and Turkey poised to invade Syria their allies are in no position to help Iran against a joint Israeli/Saudi/US strike.

Damn iran seemed so promising.

Pissy F Benny

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1348 on: July 16, 2022, 11:12:10 AM »
This is a pretty funny contrast

(Image removed from quote.)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62186332

Maybe Biden thinks snitches should sleep in ditches :nothot
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Nintex

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1349 on: July 16, 2022, 04:09:22 PM »
There's a line of thinking that Khashoggi was not the innocent journalist he was portrayed to be. It ranges from claims that he was a propagandist to foreign intelligence.

Biden doesn't have much of a choice on this. He can make an enemy out of Saudi Arabia or force some good old regime change but MBS has the keys to the kingdom and the Saudi military is very ineffective.
Chances are that if you overthrow MBS you'll end up with someone or something much worse or the Saudi's side with China. There just isn't any viable 'democratic' or 'liberal' opposition and no army loyal to anything but petro dollars.
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HaughtyFrank

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Tasty

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1351 on: July 16, 2022, 05:21:29 PM »
These dudes are just LARPing at the end of the day.


Propagandhim

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1353 on: July 17, 2022, 01:34:20 PM »
https://twitter.com/MaxBoot/status/1548632161938538497

The Washington Post is a cold place for coworkers.  :lol
 
 

Potato

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1354 on: July 17, 2022, 02:56:57 PM »
https://twitter.com/MaxBoot/status/1548632161938538497

The Washington Post is a cold place for coworkers.  :lol
MBS had revolutionised Saudi society and culture. He has taken them from Stone Age to Bronze Age. We should be thankful.
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Nintex

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1355 on: July 17, 2022, 03:13:40 PM »
And they got almost nothing in return.

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1548340598326693891

It boggles the mind that Biden hasn't fired Blinken yet.
Macron warned him, the Saudi's wouldn't increase production.

 :doge
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VomKriege

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1356 on: July 18, 2022, 02:09:43 AM »
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Nintex

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1357 on: July 18, 2022, 08:25:13 AM »
Nate's disclaimer
Quote
just somewhat randomly guess based on which candidates are leading in polls

doesn't have the same ring to it as:
Quote
Data-driven news and analysis from Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight

He basically admits it's all just the gut feeling of an autisty  :lol
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HaughtyFrank

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1358 on: July 18, 2022, 09:33:07 AM »
Amazing that the tweet is still up

Nate Silver's site: "Franchot is favored to win"

Franchot: "I'm favored to win"

Nate Silver: "How dare you, apologize for spreading disinfo"

VomKriege

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1359 on: July 18, 2022, 09:37:17 AM »
Amazing that the tweet is still up

Nate Silver's site: "Franchot is favored to win"

Franchot: "I'm favored to win"

Nate Silver: "How dare you, apologize for spreading disinfo"

The guy is saying he's favoured to win the primary but the poll is about his chances in the actual election if he is selected but apparently 538 is not making any calls on the primary.
It's confusing and Nattu Bronze is not really explaining it well.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2022, 10:28:59 AM by VomKriege »
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Madrun Badrun

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1360 on: July 18, 2022, 10:01:32 AM »
I don't see the problem here other than the slightly strong language and over-reaction by Silver.  Would have been a better tweet if it just walked through the misinformation.  Franchot is claiming the poll says something it does not show, which is very obvious by using the poll phrasing 'clearly favored' for the nomination.  Which is really silly since the tweet then implicitly undoes this by saying the poll is for the general in the next sentence. 


Nate's disclaimer
Quote
just somewhat randomly guess based on which candidates are leading in polls

doesn't have the same ring to it as:
Quote
Data-driven news and analysis from Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight

He basically admits it's all just the gut feeling of an autisty  :lol

And your posts just keep getting dumber.  What he said was specifically about primaries, you don't then get to remove the context and make the generalization that 'it's all' just gut feeling just because it fits your conspiratorial worldview.   

Nintex

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1361 on: July 18, 2022, 10:13:02 AM »
It's getting hard to predict the election. On one hand it should be an easy win for the Republican challengers because of the inflation, gas prices, Biden's approval and whatnot.
Possibly losing another chunk of Ukraine after Obama already lost the Crimea and who knows what the state of the world will be by November.

But some of the Republican candidates like Dr. Oz seem both clueless and cringe.
They are hardly 'disciplined' conservatives like Ron DeSantis that the Republican electorate seems to like best right now and Oz's boomer-level meme game sucks too :doge
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Madrun Badrun

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1362 on: July 18, 2022, 10:32:24 AM »
I can't tell if that is a reply to me because, if so, none of that is relevant to what I said other than more evidence to show you are primed to thinking that predicting elections doesn't work and hence why you'd be more comfortable drawing faulty inferences like the one you made.  Again, you don't get to strip away the context of a quote then act as if it's some kind of admission to the thing you believe in. 

Joe Molotov

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1363 on: July 18, 2022, 10:58:45 AM »
That picture incenses me. What the Fuck is Biden doing?

A terrorist fist bump.
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HaughtyFrank

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1364 on: July 18, 2022, 10:59:11 AM »
Amazing that the tweet is still up

Nate Silver's site: "Franchot is favored to win"

Franchot: "I'm favored to win"

Nate Silver: "How dare you, apologize for spreading disinfo"

The guy is saying he's favoured to win the primary but the poll is about his chances in the actual election if he is selected but apparently 538 is not making any calls on the primary.
It's confusing and Nattu Bronze is not really explaining it well.

Ah ok, makes more sense. Though if Silver is that worried about his prediction being misunderstood he should probably do something more than just add an asterisk.

Nintex

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1365 on: July 18, 2022, 11:01:23 AM »
Amazing that the tweet is still up

Nate Silver's site: "Franchot is favored to win"

Franchot: "I'm favored to win"

Nate Silver: "How dare you, apologize for spreading disinfo"

The guy is saying he's favoured to win the primary but the poll is about his chances in the actual election if he is selected but apparently 538 is not making any calls on the primary.
It's confusing and Nattu Bronze is not really explaining it well.

Ah ok, makes more sense. Though if Silver is that worried about his prediction being misunderstood he should probably do something more than just add an asterisk.
Yup he's playing fast and loose with this

I can't tell if that is a reply to me because, if so, none of that is relevant to what I said other than more evidence to show you are primed to thinking that predicting elections doesn't work and hence why you'd be more comfortable drawing faulty inferences like the one you made.  Again, you don't get to strip away the context of a quote then act as if it's some kind of admission to the thing you believe in.
There really wasn't much context. Nate always hides behind asterisks and word salads to both make his numbers and forecasts sound more interesting as well as not take any accountability when he is wrong.

His polling method is basically: "Yes this is the poll, but this is how I feel about the poll". To be fair he usually has buttons on his site to disable his 'analysis' and get the actual numbers.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2022, 11:07:45 AM by Nintex »
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Madrun Badrun

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1366 on: July 18, 2022, 11:41:45 AM »
There really wasn't much context.

Bitch please, the context is the exact words you decided to edit out.  Let me put this a way your rat brain might understand:

Quote
We don't predict primary outcomes just somewhat randomly guess based on which candidates are leading in polls

doesn't have the same ring to it as:
Quote
just somewhat randomly guess based on which candidates are leading in polls

Your basically admitting it's all just the gut feeling of an illiterate  :lol

Saying the words primary outcomes is all the context you need to be understand that he his only talking about models of the primaries.  You then took this to be not only a statement but an admission that all the models are just random guesses and you did so because this is what you already believe.
 

Pissy F Benny

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1367 on: July 18, 2022, 11:52:43 AM »
Settle down girls :badass
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Nintex

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1368 on: July 18, 2022, 12:20:50 PM »
If Nate Silver was a pilot he would've crashed a plane into a mountain but not before ejecting and safely landing with a parachute ready to board the next plane.
Asked if he was to blame for the tragedy because he altered the flight plan: "No I don't think so, I didn't see the mountain but that doesn't mean there's anything wrong with my flight plan or flight skills".
After some deliberation a new group of passengers shows up. Surely anyone could've missed that mountain, who knows maybe the Russians hacked the flight controls!

Before take off a curious passenger asks: "Will we land safely this time?"
"Yes, we will land* safely!" Nate assures them "Read these brochures about our other flights* too" reassured by these words they all happily board the plane as he slightly adjusts the flight plan based on 'new data' that somehow the other pilots missed.
Once in the air one of the passenger calls her family: "Don't worry Nate's not going to crash into the mountain this time grandpa! In fact we're going to land safely!"

"WAIT A MINUTE" Nate yells, "I never said anything about not crashing into a mountain I was just talking about the possible landing at the end of this flight. I would appreciate if you took back what you just said on the phone."
One passenger asks: "So are we crashing into this mountain or what!?". "Shut up rat brain!" Another passenger screams "Nate knows what he's doing!"
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Madrun Badrun

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1369 on: July 18, 2022, 12:40:12 PM »
Of course your defense is an imaginary skit.  You understand that this is how a child communicates right? 

Again the issue is not with the predictive models, I'm not arguing their models are good, that is completely beside the point.  The point is you believe the general models are bad.  You then ignored context to gleefully imply that yourworldview was right all along, it's just an 'autisy' making stuff up and this is an admission of such.  Except that context shows that he is referring to a very specific thing.  So the outcome of this is you're going to go on thinking that Nate Silver admitted his models are just random predictions, when nothing like that happened.  Then when questioned on it your just do word salad about the state of US politics or do your fucking skit thing, since even if you made a mistake here your point still stands because everyone knows the models are bad.  You do this in all the political and culture war threads, just long chains of bad inferences and misreadings but your logic doesn't matter because the thing you believe is true and it's not worth questing how you go there because insert skit with trump or elon arms up emoticons.    Like I can see the cogs in your head turning and I just want to stick my finger in them cause it's so fucking dumb.

benjipwns

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1370 on: July 18, 2022, 01:02:04 PM »
He basically admits it's all just the gut feeling of an autisty  :lol
All 538's model does is slightly skew the aggregate based on past polling performance. The skew is actually arguably less change from the aggregate than it used to be because the aggregate itself is already pretty accurate and the worst pollsters fail out of the business.

Nate's bad at tweeting but you're taking shots at his model while not knowing what it is nor why it's not very important in the first place. Point to 2016 all you want but not only was 538's model the least pro-Hillary of all the public ones it wasn't any different from the polling aggregate. Which makes sense since Hillary did win the meaningless race that most corresponds to a national poll.

It's getting hard to predict the election. On one hand it should be an easy win for the Republican challengers because of the inflation, gas prices, Biden's approval and whatnot.
Possibly losing another chunk of Ukraine after Obama already lost the Crimea and who knows what the state of the world will be by November.

But some of the Republican candidates like Dr. Oz seem both clueless and cringe.
They are hardly 'disciplined' conservatives like Ron DeSantis that the Republican electorate seems to like best right now and Oz's boomer-level meme game sucks too :doge
Nobody cares about Ukraine or memes.

The state-wide polls have drifted away from the Republicans because actual candidates always do worse than Generic Republican/Democrat and the Republican primary electorate followed Trump's advice by picking a bunch of morons for their nominees even though Trump's track record for picking candidates is terrible.

Uncle

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1371 on: July 18, 2022, 01:04:55 PM »
madrun you are being pretty rude

lots of people communicate in different ways, just because they don't engage with the world in the same ways you do doesn't make their way worse

in fact I would say children don't tend to have the capacity yet to create robust comparisons to other situations, generally they take everything at face value

and you're talking about "cogs in his head turning and sticking your finger in it," how is that not a form of illustrative fan fiction?  "the way a child communicates?"
Uncle

Madrun Badrun

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1372 on: July 18, 2022, 01:23:07 PM »
The difference is being a single insult at the end of a post and not being the framing for an entire argument?  If Nintex doesn't want rude maybe he shouldn't be going around calling people autistic based on the fact that he can't read.  I'm tired of his shtick.       

Nintex

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Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1373 on: July 18, 2022, 02:01:02 PM »
Quote
The point is you believe the general models are bad.
Nope I believe polling can be accurate, I just don't believe that Nate Silver's skewing improves on the actual polls.
In general though models don't really have a great track record but that's because most of the time they aren't used correctly, are incomplete or have a bias build-in.

Quote
Nate Silver admitted his models are just random predictions, when nothing like that happened.
He admitted this a couple of times actually. The issue I have with Nate is that he tries to present his data nearly scientific, using specific words, graphs, design and overall making it look corporate slick.
The forecasts, simulations etc. it's all designed to make it look more credible than it actually is.

A quick google search shows that I'm not the only one questioning this type of journalism
https://www.salon.com/2018/11/12/the-needle-and-the-damage-done-another-election-night-fueled-by-garbage-data-journalism/

and yes, bad nintex for using the word autisty  :duh


In other news the 'find a jury that doesn't hate Steve Bannon' challenge
https://twitter.com/glennkirschner2/status/1549065732473880586
« Last Edit: July 18, 2022, 02:56:01 PM by Nintex »
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benjipwns

  • your bright ideas always burn me
  • Senior Member
Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1374 on: July 18, 2022, 03:32:14 PM »
Quote
The point is you believe the general models are bad.
Nope I believe polling can be accurate, I just don't believe that Nate Silver's skewing improves on the actual polls.
In general though models don't really have a great track record but that's because most of the time they aren't used correctly, are incomplete or have a bias build-in.

Quote
Nate Silver admitted his models are just random predictions, when nothing like that happened.
He admitted this a couple of times actually. The issue I have with Nate is that he tries to present his data nearly scientific, using specific words, graphs, design and overall making it look corporate slick.
The forecasts, simulations etc. it's all designed to make it look more credible than it actually is.

A quick google search shows that I'm not the only one questioning this type of journalism
https://www.salon.com/2018/11/12/the-needle-and-the-damage-done-another-election-night-fueled-by-garbage-data-journalism/
You're conflating multiple things to attack something you apparently refuse to understand if your claims are to be taken seriously.

That article is doing the same thing. It's complaining that a projection model can't react in real time to new unimpeachable information, a literally impossible standard. It's asking a projection model based on past data to somehow project "future" election result data minute by minute by including new election result data as it comes in even before those election counts are complete. No new polling information is coming in to update the model, all polling data has to be rejected by the model to insert new onetime experiment results and extrapolate this election data as somehow applying to independent races for which only past polling data is known. This literally cannot be done. It's objectively impossible.

The rest of it is complaining about presentation much of which doesn't even apply to 538 (which isn't just Nate Silver btw) even if it did stop people from interpreting things wrong. The rest of it is complaining that idiots are misinterpreting other people's work while citing that work and using that to attack the work being misinterpreted.

You continue to claim that 538's models don't have a great track record when they do and I'm not sure you can find a more accurate and transparent model. I'm not even sure what you could possibly be referring to when claiming this. Especially when you're pointing to "actual polls" yet whining about the models not being used correctly, "are incomplete or have a bias built in" when this is every "actual poll" you can possibly name. All 538's "skew" does is attempt to hold these standardized across cycles and polls based on past performance, the reason it (and the other various models) doesn't do better than RCP where RCP just aggregates the polls without any model applied isn't a fault of the models it's a fault of the fact that when you aggregate polls you're already becoming too accurate for too few tests so there's not much accuracy to add by improving the model beyond the aggregate. If the aggregate calls 18 of 20 races, then 538 (or any other election forecast) calling 19 of 20 isn't an actual improvement because it might have been due to the inherent margin of error.

Silver has never "admitted" his models are random predictions because that would be doing what you claim he does when he pretty clearly does not do that. Random predictions would actually have an atrocious track record and would be blatantly obvious.

The entire instance which started you off on this probably isn't going to be wrong. A Democrat winning Maryland's Governor's race should probably be 97% expected based on available information. If Franchot wins the nomination and then goes on to win as expected are you going to come back and say you were wrong, Nate was right and proclaim adherence to models from now on or are you going to act like this never happened since your personal model doesn't allow for results that go against it?

VomKriege

  • Do the moron
  • Senior Member
Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1375 on: July 18, 2022, 05:40:34 PM »
Amazing that the tweet is still up

Nate Silver's site: "Franchot is favored to win"

Franchot: "I'm favored to win"

Nate Silver: "How dare you, apologize for spreading disinfo"

The guy is saying he's favoured to win the primary but the poll is about his chances in the actual election if he is selected but apparently 538 is not making any calls on the primary.
It's confusing and Nattu Bronze is not really explaining it well.

Ah ok, makes more sense. Though if Silver is that worried about his prediction being misunderstood he should probably do something more than just add an asterisk.

It's one of those things where all the info to see the fallacy is there but it's really easy to be conned by the sleight of hand (it took me a minute).
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Tasty

  • Senior Member

Propagandhim

  • Senior Member
Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1377 on: July 19, 2022, 02:14:02 PM »
https://twitter.com/DouglasKBlair/status/1549445391585878022

Is she...pretending to be handcuffed here?  :dead

HaughtyFrank

  • Haughty and a little naughty
  • Senior Member
Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1378 on: July 19, 2022, 02:22:30 PM »
Does seem like she's trying to make it look more dramatic. The woman next to her walks normal despite also being removed

Pissy F Benny

  • Is down with the sickness
  • Senior Member
Re: USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town
« Reply #1379 on: July 19, 2022, 02:35:10 PM »
LOOOOOOOOL, that's some Alex Jones level shit :info
(ice)