I am picking up Heavy Rain but that's a QTE-fest, not really a game.
Shit, even the developer admits it isn't a real video game 
Interactive movies, ohboy ohboy
It's as much a real video game as any old PC graphic adventure. If you consider Grim Fandango or Monkey Island 3 a video game then so is Heavy Rain.
Heavy Rain seems like an evolution of that formula, really. Will they succeed? Let's wait and see.
Quantic Dream has always produced games like this. Omikron attempted to be Shenmue before Shenmue and, in some ways, did a much better job. Fahrenheit also gave the adventure genre a shot, but got muddled up with a misguided story and simon-says QTEs. The QTEs used in Heavy Rain seem much less static and less divided from the regular adventuring/exploration portions.
I think the biggest concerns I have with the game are its voice work (which seems a bit off) and the poor facial expressions (considering the hype behind this side of things, it's disappointing that the eyes look so dead). It should at least be an interesting experiment.
The Lair comparisons are unfounded. This is just Quantic Dream doing what Quantic Dream has always done. People are simply taking sides due to its exclusivity. PS3 fans are giving it more attention that it probably would have received while PS3 haters are giving it a lot of extra shit that it probably doesn't deserve. If it had been multiplatform it still would have received a decent amount of attention just due to the potential their last game had.
