I don't mean crash in the Atari crash sense, which I was around for, and remember - I was too young to know what it really meant, but suddenly there were all these dump bins at Camelot Music and Sears filled with 2600 games slashed down as low as $5, and then my folks bought me a brand-new Intellivision with the voice module and a buttload (like, 6) of games (I later found out they paid around $50 total). I was in heaven for a little bit, then everything dried up for several years, and I moved on to other interests.
I think this will be more of a slow-motion crash, which I find more fascinating. Lots of flailing around for several years in a hubris-fueled self-immolation. All of these newer, more drastic measures (if, indeed, the rumors turn out to be true) are going to hit within the same 2-3 year span as the consoles roll out. I'm sure that the thought is people will "get used to" things like the permanent locking of games to consoles, or even more restrictive online passes, but I am fairly positive what most folks in the mainstream will "get used to" is buying fewer and fewer games altogether. The CODs, the Halos, the Gears and Gods of Wars, sure, they'll still be grudgingly purchased at full price. For a while, anyway. The Kingdoms of Amalur and other riskier new games will be the first to disappear, because no one outside of our sphere is going to permanently invest $60 in such games. The result will likely be console games falling back into niche entertainment as the broad genre appeal narrows.
Sony, MS, and Nintendo know they have a symbiotic relationship with stores like Gamestop. They don't want to outright kill them, regardless of all the blustery squawking. They just want another piece of the pie. Only problem is you now own the pie. They'll never come out and say it, but they don't mind Gamestop at all. Gamestop sells new games for them, they're just a scapegoat in this "debate." If they really thought Gamestop was The Big Bad and wanted them gone, they wouldn't be making deals for online codes to be printed on used game receipts. No, what they really mind is YOU, because YOU'RE the one giving away what's left of the pie after you've had your fill. The contempt for the consumer is pretty clear to me in all this, although it's being cleverly hidden behind a finger pointing elsewhere (Gamestop). So they're gonna throw anything they can at the wall to see what sticks, all the while shaking a fist and screaming GAMESTOP, but with full knowledge that you, the real target, are standing in front of the wall. I don't think the vast majority of people are as dumb or as willing to take it as they seem to think, but we'll see. Like I said, it'll be a long, slow burn with lots of twists and turns, and I'll enjoy the hell out of it, because I do love the smell of roasting hubris.
