Some reports emerging from China that Xi's grip on power might be under threat within the next 18 months.
Interesting times...
There's a power play in China going on right now. Dutch media also reported on it.
First there was the policy advisor that basically made the case to drop support for Russia and instead follow the EU / US as that would be in China's best interest.
Basically Shanghai is the economic center and Xi is trying to minimize their influence with the extended lockdowns.
However, Shanghai and many other economic centers want to follow the Dutch/UK model of "LET IT RIP" or at least the French and German model of 'controlled spread'.
Which means that the Zero COVID policy that Xi has pushed for is over. Same as the idea that Russia and China can become the 'Dragonbear' i.e. the power players in a multipolar world.
However, this is more ingrained into the political 'toolbox' of China and Xi than most in the west are aware of.
The COVID lockdowns / quarantine camps is basically the 'Uyghur isolation methods' applied to the pandemic.
Xi stands a crossroads. Either he can continue to support Russia and decoupling from the west (trying to push the Yuan as a reserve currency for non-US aligned nations) or he can accept that he's part of the EU/US supply chain and Dollar world and China has to operate within those boundaries (which means you can do whatever the fuck you want in Africa and Central Asia but Taiwan and other contested areas that supply critical products(computer chips, oil, grain, gas etc.) are a no-go). Or he can work together with the EU and US.
Xi is more inclined to launch an attack on Taiwan than join forces against Russia, which would end in a bigger failure than Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Given the fact that Taiwan is an island that has prepared all their defenses to deal with such an assault.
The weapon systems and tactics of China would look much like those of the Russian Empire. In reality most landing ships would be sunk before they would ever reach the shore of Taiwan and that's before the US would enact a naval blockade.
However, CCP power struggles are slow. It took Xi a long time to get rid of his main opposition and claim power.
How it pans out is everyone's guess but the most likely scenario is that Russia will change course before August.
August is the window for the Ukrainians to launch a big counter attack on the exhausted Russian BTG's with arms supplied by NATO countries.
Russia would have to literally nuke themselves to stop such an assault and prevent Ukraine from taking the Crimea or even Belgorod.
Russia's play right now is to create another 'frozen' conflict and keep their gains, like they did in Ukraine in 2014 and Georgia before.
However this depends on Ukraine playing ball with this strategy and they've already shown in Kharkiv and other places that they won't accept a frozen conflict.
With the dire state the Russian airforce and army are in, in theory 400 - 500 Ukrainian tanks could roll up to Moscow.
Putin has now announced massive exercises across the CSTO this summer to keep Belarus, Khazachstan and the others in line, which just means there will be fewer units to defend the Russian borders.
