Author Topic: Corona Thread |OT| Nu variant, who dis?  (Read 1073588 times)

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james

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #300 on: February 07, 2020, 09:29:27 AM »
:O

Lonewulfeus

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #301 on: February 07, 2020, 01:17:11 PM »
Nyc about to fall

https://twitter.com/AlexButlertv/status/1225745065408155648

Only positive test is for influenza A, the cruise was 12 days and the passengers from China were last in China 14 days ago.  If they had coronavirus it’s likely they’d have symptoms by now.  The CDC declared this ship low risk.

Nintex

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #302 on: February 07, 2020, 01:25:17 PM »
🤴

VomKriege

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #303 on: February 07, 2020, 01:31:39 PM »
He doesn't look like a feeble old person with preexisting breathing/lung issues.

I'm not a doctor but considering who he was it doesn't seem unreasonable he would have been exposed more severely and without some of the protections in place yet ?
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ToxicAdam

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #304 on: February 07, 2020, 01:36:29 PM »
The coronavirus subreddit has been the most hilarious honey-hole I've discovered in awhile.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f056zn/whats_the_end_game_here/

Quote
It’s China’s Chernobyl. Don’t forget, super bowl ended a couple of days ago. So let’s pay attention to the 2 week time frame. I’ll bet my money that IF (theorizing here) we get an outbreak here. The first 2 epicenters will be Kansas City and San Francisco

james

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #305 on: February 07, 2020, 02:01:09 PM »
WTF is a honey-hole
:O

Ghoul

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #306 on: February 07, 2020, 02:02:43 PM »
So apart of my work is in events and there’s a big show next week with 70% Chinese attendance, one sales girl is refusing to go but wants her bonus even though she’ll potentially lose sales because not going. If I’m going you’re going. I got some hand sanitizer and a mask, despite feeling I’m already infected. We shall see!

ToxicAdam

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #307 on: February 07, 2020, 02:14:14 PM »
WTF is a honey-hole

It's a fishing/hunting term for a secret spot that yields good luck.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honey_hole

TVC15

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #308 on: February 07, 2020, 02:34:34 PM »
serge

james

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #309 on: February 08, 2020, 01:06:47 AM »
This guy proved that China has been faking the numbers.

He predicted 7 days of data and nailed them all

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ez13dv/comment/fgkkh59
:O

Occam

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #310 on: February 08, 2020, 04:42:13 AM »
A communist regime fabricating data? Why, I never!
504

Transhuman

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #311 on: February 08, 2020, 04:49:05 AM »
Maths don't lie.

Raist

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #312 on: February 08, 2020, 05:33:27 AM »
:picard

who is ted danson?

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #313 on: February 08, 2020, 07:38:57 AM »
If anyone here catches it, remember to post your hog pics before you RIP
would be a shame for them to go to waste
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Nintex

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #314 on: February 08, 2020, 09:08:50 AM »
I read some horrible stomach turning stories about how crematoriums are filled to the brim and working overtime to get rid of the dead bodies and families barely get a look at their diseased relatives if at all.
People are starting to notice a lot of families send to the hospitals don't return.
 
They're also welding shut the doors of entire apartment buildings
https://twitter.com/ASBreakingNews/status/1226131773576425473
« Last Edit: February 08, 2020, 09:32:40 AM by Nintex »
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james

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #315 on: February 08, 2020, 11:33:52 AM »
France and Switzerland have fallen
:O

Occam

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #316 on: February 08, 2020, 08:12:26 PM »
805 dead reported (=off by 3). So the Chinese numbers are indeed bullshit.

EDIT: I was wrong, the timeframe is too short to jump to any conclusion. It makes perfect sense that a function created by using regression analysis fits for a few days- until it doesn't.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2020, 09:16:28 AM by Occam »
504

samir

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #317 on: February 08, 2020, 11:58:05 PM »
This shit always starts in China. Maybe they should stop eating weird animals and shit in the streets. Just an idea.

BIONIC

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #318 on: February 09, 2020, 12:59:45 AM »
I read some horrible stomach turning stories about how crematoriums are filled to the brim and working overtime to get rid of the dead bodies and families barely get a look at their diseased relatives if at all.
People are starting to notice a lot of families send to the hospitals don't return.
 
They're also welding shut the doors of entire apartment buildings
https://twitter.com/ASBreakingNews/status/1226131773576425473

This is how the Death Stranding starts :expert
Margs

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #319 on: February 09, 2020, 01:13:53 AM »
Feel like this whole thing is petering out idk.

thisismyusername

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #320 on: February 09, 2020, 01:13:59 AM »
If anyone here catches it, remember to post your hog pics before you RIP
would be a shame for them to go to waste

Who is Hobby Lobby? keeping me in their thoughts. :heart

Raist

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #321 on: February 09, 2020, 03:57:15 AM »
805 dead reported (=off by 3). So the Chinese numbers are indeed bullshit.

Why should it be a surprise that a model based of off a couple of weeks of data continues to hold true for a few days?

People screaming "it's not exponential therefore it's all made up!" off the rooftops have no idea what they're talking about.

Transhuman

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #322 on: February 09, 2020, 04:14:19 AM »
Figures probably real but I guess there is a natural distrust of China doing it's own death tolls ever since Tiananmen Square

Occam

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #323 on: February 09, 2020, 04:20:05 AM »
805 dead reported (=off by 3). So the Chinese numbers are indeed bullshit.

Why should it be a surprise that a model based of off a couple of weeks of data continues to hold true for a few days?

People screaming "it's not exponential therefore it's all made up!" off the rooftops have no idea what they're talking about.

I think you don't understand. The numbers that are reported daily by the Chinese government are supposed to be a count of the actual number of people that have died that day, not an estimate. The problem is that day after day numbers are reported that EXACTLY confirm to that equation mentioned above. Meaning, it's impossible those are the real number of deaths.

EDIT: I was wrong, the timeframe is too short to jump to any conclusion. It makes perfect sense that a function created by using regression analysis fits for a few days- until it doesn't.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2020, 09:16:06 AM by Occam »
504

Transhuman

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #324 on: February 09, 2020, 04:43:16 AM »
Quote
Liu Mei told the Caijing reporter that the elderly had symptoms of suspected new type of coronavirus pneumonia on January 21, and the diagnosis results showed that the lung was highly infected in the fourth hospital of Wuhan. However, the old man has not been admitted to several hospitals, and can only isolate himself at home until his illness.

After the old man was taken to the ambulance, the family never saw her again. All they received was a cremation note, indicating that the cause of the death of the elderly was: viral pneumonia. However, according to family members, the death of the elderly was not included in the number of confirmed deaths from new coronary pneumonia-because she did not qualify for hospitalization and was not diagnosed with new coronary pneumonia until her death.

https://chinadigitaltimes.net/chinese/2020/02/%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F-%E7%BB%9F%E8%AE%A1%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%97%E4%B9%8B%E5%A4%96%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%9A%E4%BB%96%E4%BB%AC%E6%AD%BB%E4%BA%8E%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E8%82%BA%E7%82%8E/

They have a lot of people to test so if someone dies and they havn't been tested, they're just going to cremate you without adding you to the official figures.

tldr: China lie

Potato

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #325 on: February 09, 2020, 05:20:38 AM »
To reiterate what Occam said a few posts up...

A communist regime fabricating data? Why, I never!

It's not like China has a free press or any public organisations willing to expose government lies and propaganda.
Spud

Nintex

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #326 on: February 09, 2020, 06:27:12 AM »
Quote
Liu Mei told the Caijing reporter that the elderly had symptoms of suspected new type of coronavirus pneumonia on January 21, and the diagnosis results showed that the lung was highly infected in the fourth hospital of Wuhan. However, the old man has not been admitted to several hospitals, and can only isolate himself at home until his illness.

After the old man was taken to the ambulance, the family never saw her again. All they received was a cremation note, indicating that the cause of the death of the elderly was: viral pneumonia. However, according to family members, the death of the elderly was not included in the number of confirmed deaths from new coronary pneumonia-because she did not qualify for hospitalization and was not diagnosed with new coronary pneumonia until her death.

https://chinadigitaltimes.net/chinese/2020/02/%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F-%E7%BB%9F%E8%AE%A1%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%97%E4%B9%8B%E5%A4%96%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%9A%E4%BB%96%E4%BB%AC%E6%AD%BB%E4%BA%8E%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E8%82%BA%E7%82%8E/

They have a lot of people to test so if someone dies and they havn't been tested, they're just going to cremate you without adding you to the official figures.

tldr: China lie
They lock people in their homes and then return later to collect the bodies. The 'hospitals' and 'quarantine' zones are just halls with beds, barely running water or medical staff other than those who also have the virus.

Because the supply lines are distorted farm animals are dying in large numbers and they could soon have food shortages as well.
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Raist

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #327 on: February 09, 2020, 07:51:53 AM »
805 dead reported (=off by 3). So the Chinese numbers are indeed bullshit.

Why should it be a surprise that a model based of off a couple of weeks of data continues to hold true for a few days?

People screaming "it's not exponential therefore it's all made up!" off the rooftops have no idea what they're talking about.

I think you don't understand. The numbers that are reported daily by the Chinese government are supposed to be a count of the actual number of people that have died that day, not an estimate. The problem is that day after day numbers are reported that EXACTLY confirm to that equation mentioned above. Meaning, it's impossible those are the real number of deaths.


He didn't come up with said "equation" out of nowhere. It's based on the first couple of weeks of data.

The fact that subsequent data points fall into the predicted curve based off of a regression analysis of existing prior data isn't shocking at all, let alone be evidence that the numbers are fake. It's the whole goddamn point of regression analyses.


As for the reported numbers being most likely underestimating the actual number of cases, well duh. That happens all the time, everywhere.

Nintex

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #328 on: February 09, 2020, 09:21:41 AM »
In lighter news the Chinese are triggered because the Dutch are making jokes and songs about the Corona virus.
Based on the phrase: "Beter voorkomen dan genezen" (It's better to prevent than to cure).
The word 'Genezen' (to cure), is very similar to 'Chinezen', which means "The Chinese" but in most cases means: "Let's go eat Chinese".
So the song is about that it's better to prevent getting sick by not eating Chinese otherwise you end up being quarantined or euthanized.

https://twitter.com/shanetlie/status/1226162485725626368

There was also an incident on a talk show where they discussed dogs wearing face masks and the guest quipped that he thought Chinese only ate dogs.
https://twitter.com/shanetlie/status/1226222972412813313

Of course the Chinese don't enjoy edgy Dutch humor.  :idont

The state is even launching their dumb bot armies
https://twitter.com/Catheri77569890
https://twitter.com/Candicelalala/with_replies
« Last Edit: February 09, 2020, 09:30:10 AM by Nintex »
🤴

MMaRsu

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #329 on: February 09, 2020, 09:47:21 AM »
Dutch humor  :whatsthedeal
What

MMaRsu

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #330 on: February 09, 2020, 09:47:48 AM »
I ordered some shit from china, How at risk am I right now
What

Nintex

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #331 on: February 09, 2020, 10:02:51 AM »
I ordered some shit from china, How at risk am I right now
RIP  :chinacry
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Raist

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #332 on: February 09, 2020, 10:05:36 AM »
I ordered some shit from china, How at risk am I right now


You'll be fine.


spoiler (click to show/hide)
Here's our chance to get rid of the Netherlands, brehs :hyper.
[close]

Great Rumbler

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #333 on: February 09, 2020, 07:41:43 PM »
I ordered some shit from china, How at risk am I right now

I dunno, did you specifically order novel corona virus samples?
dog

Occam

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #334 on: February 11, 2020, 06:47:58 AM »
805 dead reported (=off by 3). So the Chinese numbers are indeed bullshit.

Why should it be a surprise that a model based of off a couple of weeks of data continues to hold true for a few days?

People screaming "it's not exponential therefore it's all made up!" off the rooftops have no idea what they're talking about.

I think you don't understand. The numbers that are reported daily by the Chinese government are supposed to be a count of the actual number of people that have died that day, not an estimate. The problem is that day after day numbers are reported that EXACTLY confirm to that equation mentioned above. Meaning, it's impossible those are the real number of deaths.


He didn't come up with said "equation" out of nowhere. It's based on the first couple of weeks of data.

The fact that subsequent data points fall into the predicted curve based off of a regression analysis of existing prior data isn't shocking at all, let alone be evidence that the numbers are fake. It's the whole goddamn point of regression analyses.


As for the reported numbers being most likely underestimating the actual number of cases, well duh. That happens all the time, everywhere.

The point is that the reported data quite precisely fit the quadratic function many days in a row, which isn't how reality works. The data points should be scattered around the line (the graph of the function) and not lie directly on it. The statistical probability of this is near 0. Meaning, unlike a graph based on a quadratic function, a graph based on real world data should occasionally go zigzag.

EDIT: I was wrong, the timeframe is too short to jump to any conclusion. It makes perfect sense that a function created by using regression analysis fits for a few days- until it doesn't.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2020, 09:15:29 AM by Occam »
504

Raist

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #335 on: February 11, 2020, 07:22:55 AM »
:picard


You have absolutely no clue dude.

Fifstar

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #336 on: February 11, 2020, 07:46:07 AM »
Can you quickly explain why? What's wrong about the notion that the predicted data for each day shouldn't be that close to the actual data? Especially considering that outside factors (like correctly determing cause of death, change in patient treatment and so on) probably have changed over the last couple of weeks?
Gulp

Raist

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #337 on: February 11, 2020, 07:58:13 AM »
Because growth curves will always follow an exponential (although that's actually extremely rare in real life conditions) or sub-exponential (i.e. polynomial - which a quadratic is) trend over a few days - or hours for things that multiply real fast, like bacteria.
There is absolutely nothing surprising about this.

It's incredibly easy to take a handful of data points and find a really really good fit, in particular with a polynomial function, ESPECIALLY when it's overfitted - which you can see in that reddit post given that it does not trend towards 0 but instead curves upwards.

The next few data points will inevitably fall right around the trend curve - again, there's nothing surprising or dodgy about this at all. They're no going to suddenly wildly diverge from the trend established from the prior few days.
It will however invariably fall part really quickly, which is starting to be the case for this example.

But of course, instead of thinking "well maybe it was just really easy to have a really good fit for a few days, but that's not the case anymore because this is how these things fucking work", now we're seeing the classic "THEY MUST HAVE NOTICED US AND ARE CHANGING THE NUMBERS TO MISLEAD US".

It's pretty much exactly like flat earth distinguished mentally-challenged fellows who demand proof, and when you show them pictures of the earth taken from the moon or satellites that are far away enough to capture the whole thing, their answer is "oh but those pics are CGI". ::)

Occam

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #338 on: February 11, 2020, 07:58:45 AM »
Please explain where I am in error. Is it that the timeframe is too short to expect much deviation?

For comparison:


Edit: Sorry, posted this reply before seeing yours.
504

Transhuman

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #339 on: February 11, 2020, 08:08:46 AM »
CCP is evil as shit so I can understand why the rumours

Raist

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #340 on: February 11, 2020, 08:29:23 AM »
Here, have another example.

Small random subset of the reported case numbers for the Ebola outbreak in WA in 2014:




Oh wow, surely Africa and the WHO just made up those numbers. Look at that R2!!1!! See how those data points line up perfectly. As we've just learned, this just doesn't happen in real life.


But then they must have known that in 2020 I'd uncover their evil plot to distribute fake numbers to the populace, because they started fudging the numbers again, those bastards!
There should have been 5,000 cases by day 150 from that starting point, but they reported 5,300 by day 126.

Someone call the Daily Mail.

Occam

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #341 on: February 11, 2020, 08:46:22 AM »
CCP is evil as shit so I can understand why the rumours

Influenza killed about 80,000 Americans in 2018 (which was unusually high, normally it's between 12,000 and 56,000). U.S. population: 320 million. The official number reported by China for 2018 was 144 deaths (population: 1.4 billion).
It makes sense to be wary of anything they report.

It's just that in this instance, the data is insufficient to be able to tell if it's falsified.

@Raist: Ok now?
504

Occam

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #342 on: February 11, 2020, 09:14:29 AM »
So, I have edited all my above posts to include the following:

I was wrong, the timeframe is too short to jump to any conclusion. It makes perfect sense that a function created by using regression analysis fits for a few days- until it doesn't.
504

Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #343 on: February 11, 2020, 10:54:53 AM »
https://www.thedailybeast.com/north-koreas-secret-coronavirus-crisis-is-crazy-scary/?via=twitter_page
Quote
Kim Jong Un canceled a big parade with no real explanation just as the South Korean press reports coronavirus has hit North Korea hard and could explode there.
Those North Korea concentration camp could be fucked if this hits them.

Ghoul

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #344 on: February 11, 2020, 11:00:21 AM »
when a virus breaks out in China and they say that X number infected and Y die, I'm gonna x10 on those figures.

Huff

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #345 on: February 11, 2020, 11:31:44 AM »
Had a another 40 year die of the flu on us, and a second is currently on ecmo (look that up if you haven’t heard of it - It’s p cool)
dur

Nintex

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #346 on: February 11, 2020, 06:01:44 PM »
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1227303789205417984
Sounds serious

https://twitter.com/ChinafricaMag/status/1227275855363297283
What's worse, dying or having to star in propaganda videos as your life ends.
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Potato

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #347 on: February 11, 2020, 06:21:19 PM »
when a virus breaks out in China and they say that X number infected and Y die, I'm gonna x10 on those figures.
I always figure 25% of the total deaths are just political assassinations and summary executions of "undesirable" citizens.
Spud

james

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #348 on: February 12, 2020, 08:22:16 PM »
No more formula

:O

shosta

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #349 on: February 12, 2020, 08:37:00 PM »
Quote
Hubei’s health commission said in its daily statement that it had changed the diagnostic criteria used to confirm cases, effective Thursday, meaning that doctors have broader discretion to determine which patients are infected.

Previously they were using test kits.
每天生气

benjipwns

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #350 on: February 12, 2020, 09:21:42 PM »
https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1227657884395327489

edit: yessss, it's the same shit that turned that Libertarian guy blue :lawd

Occam

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #351 on: February 13, 2020, 06:35:24 AM »
https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1227657884395327489

edit: yessss, it's the same shit that turned that Libertarian guy blue :lawd

Awesome, hope he and his followers start consuming large quantities of this. For science.
504

VomKriege

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #352 on: February 13, 2020, 07:08:01 AM »
Alex Jones is big on the silver and nano-silver shit right now, as well.
ὕβρις

Pissy F Benny

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #353 on: February 13, 2020, 07:20:00 AM »
He’s gone off the fish oil now?  :doge
(ice)

VomKriege

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #354 on: February 13, 2020, 07:55:11 AM »
He’s gone off the fish oil now?  :doge

He's always pushing everything but last two weeks he's shilling extra hard food buckets and silver supplements.
ὕβρις

Pissy F Benny

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #355 on: February 13, 2020, 08:00:26 AM »
I saw the food buckets earlier 700 dollars for a 3 month supply   :-*
(ice)

Joe Molotov

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #356 on: February 13, 2020, 08:43:30 AM »
edit: yessss, it's the same shit that turned that Libertarian guy blue :lawd

Yeah, but he didn’t have coronavirus. Checkmate, liberal.
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Joe Molotov

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #357 on: February 13, 2020, 08:49:20 AM »
Quote
Jones developed argyria, which permanently turned his skin a blue-grey color, by consuming home-made colloidal silver, which he made due to fears the Year 2000 problem would make antibiotics unavailable, an event that did not occur.

Wikipedia just twisting the knife.
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Transhuman

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #358 on: February 13, 2020, 08:54:00 AM »
I hope his kids decide to cremate him so they can get those sweet silver nuggets.

Great Rumbler

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Re: Corona virus megathread |OT|
« Reply #359 on: February 13, 2020, 09:27:56 AM »
Jim Bakker is proof that no matter how awful you are you can still make a come-back and sell snake oil to stupid people.
dog