Corona Thread |OT| Nu variant, who dis?

[jorma]

Don’t worry, Armin Laschet has a plan that allowing 150.000 students back to school next week will not do any harm. 

And I even voted for this guy, that’s what I get for betraying my party due to my problems with their education policy being single-issue scum.

Basing your political decisions on one highly controversial, not even finished study is peak galaxy brain.

Schools have three(!) days to prepare a concept to ensure social distancing measures. Yeah, I deserve all the scorn.   

well at least we know that keeping primary schools open isn't driving the spread significantly according to the experts who has studied it

[Fifstar]

Don’t worry, Armin Laschet has a plan that allowing 150.000 students back to school next week will not do any harm. 

And I even voted for this guy, that’s what I get for betraying my party due to my problems with their education policy being single-issue scum.

Basing your political decisions on one highly controversial, not even finished study is peak galaxy brain.

Schools have three(!) days to prepare a concept to ensure social distancing measures. Yeah, I deserve all the scorn.   

Laschet gambling on that study to rescue his chances to run for Kanzler is pretty disgusting. I guess it's even more tempting now that the CDU chances to win the next election skyrocketed due to the crisis; can't imagine the Greens to rebound with the economic crisis coming and the SPD will stay a walking corpse.

Although I think there are more studies than the Heinsberg study that support the thesis that children and especially small children are a minor factor in the spread of the virus.

Here is a study from iceland where kids below 10 seem to have a significantly lower risk to be tested positive, both in targeted testing and in open testing: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100

Only speculation from me, but it seems likely that infections are mainly transmitted from symptomatic people, especially from people that cough/transmit larger amounts of virus. People that get infected by small doses also seem to develop more mild course of disease. As most infected kids expel only small doses of virus, it becomes even more unlikely that groups of little kids infect each other, even if their behaviour can't be controlled.

[VomKriege]

Wuhan Grift is also getting exponential.

https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/1250595619397386245

[tiesto]

Anybody got any recs for good masks you can order from Amazon? Preferably something reusable...

[Occam]

Don’t worry, Armin Laschet has a plan that allowing 150.000 students back to school next week will not do any harm. 

And I even voted for this guy, that’s what I get for betraying my party due to my problems with their education policy.

Wow, that man is a moron.
There'll be lots of dead people in a few weeks.

[Flannel Boy]

Ontario
Number of cases: 8,961 (+514)
Deaths: 423 (+38)
Currently under investigation: 4,323


The number of new cases per day has been steady (or slightly increasing) for a long time.

[Madrun Badrun]

We still have very restrictive and limited testing measures so I don't think it's a good statistic to estimate actual spread.  Deaths, ICUs, and hospitalization usage are much better statistics (and the ones we actually care about in the end), however, these have the two-week lag.  I might be hopeful if the number of positive cases was steady while testing was exponentially increasing but that's not the case.

[Yeti]

Anybody got any recs for good masks you can order from Amazon? Preferably something reusable...

My mom hand sewed me and the rest of our family a mask 

[Brehvolution]

https://twitter.com/futurecanon/status/1250502000640512000

https://twitter.com/rob_sheridan/status/1250512391650959360

[Pennywise]

Basing your political decisions on one highly controversial, not even finished study is peak galaxy brain.

Schools have three(!) days to prepare a concept to ensure social distancing measures. Yeah, I deserve all the scorn.   

Schools who didn't start preparations yet should be burned to the ground anyway.

Besides you don't have to come to school after those 3 days. They're not going back to the usual schedule and mainly offer options in spread out classes for those that are writing their finals or who are about to gradudate.
However, no one is forced to go yet.
The NRW education department got everything written down on their page with alot of details. The way they communicated everything, especially by Laschet is woeful.
In general I think it would be okay if you focused on the graduates and let them finish everything. Still pretty weird that they're trying to push their own agenda despite all the other states following one roadmap together.
There are still gonna be cases where you've gotta adjust things. I doubt they're gonna push through with Heinsberg 

[Madrun Badrun]

The situation in Quebec care homes is really dire - 1200 staff are sick and they are asking the military for relief.

[VomKriege]

The situation in Quebec care homes is really dire - 1200 staff are sick and they are asking the military for relief.

It's probably gotta be similar everywhere. France care homes account for 35% of fatalities now and I think the reporting is still not complete. Wouldn't be surprised it's half by the end. It's probably overestimated a bit because France, AFAIK, just assume all deaths with symptoms since the start of the epidemic is COVID if they have two positives in any of those institutions. I believe Canada does something along those lines.

You had that horrific case of an elder's home in Spain where there wasn't staff anymore when the army went to it and the residents and dead bodies were just... There. Police receiving a tip and finding 17 COVID related deaths in a New Jersey institution. Sweden hard hit there too, etc..

A controversy in the UK because PPE suppliers said they couldn't take orders for Scotland and other home nations under orders from English Health to prioritise supply to England as far as care home staff was concerned. It's been denied officially but there's apparently written evidence one such supplier did interpret something from the administration like that.

For all the talk of "multigenerational homes in Italy with la mama cooking di pasta, that's why they got hit so hard, it's a me journalist Mario !" I suspect concentrating elders may probably be the riskier of the two. In retrospect it's obvious canceling visits should have happened earlier (mid Feb. perhaps...) and there wasn't tests for the staff or residents anyway.

[bluemax]

https://twitter.com/LANow/status/1250818746672963587

https://twitter.com/KBSpangler/status/1250812001217138689

I saw someone else ballpark it as over a million kids. Dr Oz is okay with killing a million plus kids.

[toku]

You love to see it.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

[close]

[Nintex]

"First we need our Mojo back" 

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/KBSpangler/status/1250812001217138689

I saw someone else ballpark it as over a million kids. Dr Oz is okay with killing a million plus kids.

He's clearly talking about the overall mortality rate. The CFR for children is below 0.1%. Somehow if every school-age child got infected with a CFR exactly at 0.1% (it's probably much lower because serious cases are disproportionately tested), 50,000 children would die.

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1250694035984969732

 

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/BW/status/1250797554087927815
https://twitter.com/BW/status/1250800375512338434

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/FleeboNews/status/1250833610023809024

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ttc-walkout-ppe-bus-drivers-masks-queensway-division-1.5533975

[Flannel Boy]

Quebec just had 140 deaths in one day. Australia has had 63 total!

Canadian politicians are lucky that Canadians only compare themselves to Americans. 

[Madrun Badrun]

https://twitter.com/FleeboNews/status/1250833610023809024

These are old deaths that are now confirmed as covid. 

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1250832589780406278

It was made in a lab

[VomKriege]

Nothing's perfect, OK !

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/FleeboNews/status/1250833610023809024

These are old deaths that are now confirmed as covid.

Ah yes, the good old backlog of doom.

4000 infections in care homes confirmed across the Netherlands now.
usually about 800 people in such homes die a week, now it's double that at 1600 and very few are registered as 'COVID-19' deaths.

Oops.


Some statistics guy who's usually doing our political polling claims it could be the air circulation in such buildings that causes it.

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/tuuliel/status/1250385394258063361

[Great Rumbler]

https://twitter.com/KBSpangler/status/1250812001217138689

I saw someone else ballpark it as over a million kids. Dr Oz is okay with killing a million plus kids.

He's clearly talking about the overall mortality rate. The CFR for children is below 0.1%. Somehow if every school-age child got infected with a CFR exactly at 0.1% (it's probably much lower because serious cases are disproportionately tested), 50,000 children would die.

I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed. But I do say no more than forty to fifty thousand killed, tops. Uh, depending on the breaks.

[thisismyusername]

https://twitter.com/LANow/status/1250818746672963587

China tried that and nobody really came. But sure, open retail back up. Let them bleed faster.

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/KBSpangler/status/1250812001217138689

I saw someone else ballpark it as over a million kids. Dr Oz is okay with killing a million plus kids.

He's clearly talking about the overall mortality rate. The CFR for children is below 0.1%. Somehow if every school-age child got infected with a CFR exactly at 0.1% (it's probably much lower because serious cases are disproportionately tested), 50,000 children would die.

I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed. But I do say no more than forty to fifty thousand killed, tops. Uh, depending on the breaks.

I wasn't agreeing with the idea. I was just disputing the numbers.

And 50,000 doesn't require any breaks. Just the opposite. It's a ridiculously high number assuming an unrealistic CFR where each coronavirus case = a positive test.

[Great Rumbler]

Yo, I wasn't trying to engage the topic seriously, bruh, I just wanted to post a funny line from Dr. Strangelove.

[Flannel Boy]

Yo, I wasn't trying to engage the topic seriously, bruh, I just wanted to post a funny line from Dr. Strangelove.

Can't believe I missed that reference (I've watched the movie several times).

[Leadbelly]

https://twitter.com/tuuliel/status/1250385394258063361

The one thing that has become apparent in this crisis is that, there is no winning in this situation. It could turn out that the economic collapse that follows might have far greater impact on the world and lasting damage than the virus did. It is one thing considering what this might do to first world countries, but imagine the devastation it might cause to developing countries.

I don't think now is the time to get all high and mighty about people's opinions on this. Maybe when things work out just fine, you'll have your chance to act smug.

[Madrun Badrun]

Lead's stance has basically been let people die for the last month. 

[Mandark]

it is my opinion that millions of preventable deaths would be a bad thing

sorry if this offends

[Joe Molotov]

Welp, the Wuhan Biolab story is no longer a conspiracy but just discussed with reporters at length at the white house press briefing.

Trump:  "More and more we're hearing the story" that coronavirus began in a research lab in Wuhan.  "We're doing a very thorough examination of what happened".

This was his answer to the question if he had heard about the theory and read the reports on it.

It's gonna be a Wuhan-ghazi.

Don't believe the fugazi on Wugazi.

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/thebigleboshki/status/1250848688097943554

 

Ohio man > Florida man

[Leadbelly]

Lead's stance has basically been let people die for the last month.

lol

Not exactly. I accept the advice that the lockdown is the way to go with this one. However, I also acknowledge that there is no exit strategy, the virus might come back when lockdown restrictions are lifted, and that the economic consequences to all this might be devastating. The truth is, the lockdown measures were the safest option in a period of uncertainty. We simply didn't know (still don't really) what the outcome would be.

I will make one point though actually. It is basically reiterating the point about there being no winning in this situation. Someone I was listening to made the point that the argument is really 'lives vs lives'. I guess it might turn out that way. Because undoubtedly if there is serious economic collapse it will cost lives. And those worst affected will be those in developing countries.

[I'm a Puppy!]

So in looking at the data that I have access to, we've crushed the curve here in Sacramento area. That's great news. Each day we get the around the same number of cases. That being said, I fear it's leading to a bunch of people thinking we don't need the protective measures. We're good where we are, lifting everything could easily get us in a spot where we can't keep up.

I suspect that here we'll likely open up non-essential businesses but with social distancing, # of occupant restrictions and lessened hours soon. I expect a ban on public gatherings well through summer.  North East coast though? Nope. You guys are fucked.

[Leadbelly]

it is my opinion that millions of preventable deaths would be a bad thing

sorry if this offends

NOOOOOOOO LE PEEPEEPOOPOOPOVERTY KILLS MORE PEOPLE THINK OF ALL THE SUICIDES NOOOOO YOU CANT JUST GIVE PEOPLE THE STUFF THEY NEED WE'LL BE PAYING THIS OFF FOR JENUHRASHUNS

Good point shosta. That is right.

[VomKriege]

I mean it's a reality that governments won't wait for 0% risk to reopen. And I don't think it's really sustainable for SOCIETY  on a very basic level to keep things locked down for months on end.

You already have several countries which started rolling out school openings or go with that as their future first step.

If, really, only 3% (or small amount, you get the idea) of the total population is or has been sick... It may be an acceptable, as negligible as possible, risk to take.

But maybe we're speaking only for the USA here ? Yeah, it's probably premature to be considering this now nationwide in that specific case.

[Joe Molotov]

I'll keep your things licked down for months.

[tiesto]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1250832589780406278

It was made in a lab

Regardless of whether or not it was made in a lab, I'm hoping that this convinces enough people to put more pressure on China and start shifting their supply chains to a bit closer to home.

[Madrun Badrun]

It wasn't made in a lab.  Period.

[Raist]

UK ministers who dodge questions every other minute calling for China to answer questions

[Occam]

I am sure China is trembling right now before the combined might of the United Kingdom.
Stronger Alone!

[Leadbelly]

I don't know what specific questions exactly, but China lied about the virus early on. If you remember it was a doctor that warned the world about the seriousness of the virus and he got in trouble for it. He subsequently died of the virus.

[Tasty]

https://twitter.com/thebigleboshki/status/1250848688097943554

 

Ohio man > Florida man

[VomKriege]

It wasn't made in a lab.  Period.

Poodle then ?

[Tripon]

It wasn't made in a lab.  Period.

Poodle then ?

The thought now is that it may have been a pagolin as an intermediary host before jumping to humans.

[Madrun Badrun]

Think it's gone bat -> pagolin -> human -> tiger -> your mom

[VomKriege]

Or, you know, having some strategic stockpile or nationalized production line of PPE without having to accept literally any supplier or going into bidding wars with every state on the planet ?

(Only talking about PPE here and maintaining / reopening local production lines.)

[Madrun Badrun]

Moving the supply chain away from China is an implicit suggestion that it would be moved back locally, which appeals to a lot of people (until they go to buy something), and won't be what happens in practice.   But you're right we have to be careful in distinguishing moving away from China, and the motives for doing so, and moving back locally. 

[Madrun Badrun]

Or, you know, having some strategic stockpile or nationalized production line of PPE without having to accept literally any supplier or going into bidding wars with every state on the planet ?

(Only talking about PPE here and maintaining / reopening local production lines.)

I think strategic stockpiles have failed - at least Ontario's did (bought after SARS and left to expire).  It's too dependent on government foresight and not being cut.  Also, the next crisis might not being about PPE but some other thing we don't make.   Having national production is a much stronger solution.   

[Nintex]

Moving production back home with government incentives will also cause a temporary increase in employment and investment which will look good in the overall GDP growth numbers.

[VomKriege]

Or, you know, having some strategic stockpile or nationalized production line of PPE without having to accept literally any supplier or going into bidding wars with every state on the planet ?

(Only talking about PPE here and maintaining / reopening local production lines.)

I think strategic stockpiles have failed - at least Ontario's did (bought after SARS and left to expire).  It's too dependent on government foresight and not being cut.  Also, the next crisis might not being about PPE but some other thing we don't make.   Having national production is a much stronger solution.

Same here, they left the H1N1 stockpile expire and didn't renew it for saving 15m euros a year IIRC.
Next crisis might be something else but healthcare is central & essential and in the last... 20 years ? we had SARS, MERS, Avian flu, Swine flu, a couple of Ebola hotspots and some more I forgot.

[Madrun Badrun]

TBH you could have said last year in the last 20 years we had SARS, MERS, Avian flu, Swine flu, a couple of Ebola and it was fine so we can cut supplies to save 15m euros a year.  Those other outbreaks are really only contextualized in light of this one. 

[Madrun Badrun]

It's a valid concern.  The main benefits of globalization are cheaper goods and more global stability.  So the question is can we move away from it with westerners accepting the first point and while still trying to keep the status quo on the second point.  This really makes the last half-decade's rise in right nationalism even scarier.

[VomKriege]

3) Whether the factories are here or in China, we still would have to buy the supplies. If you suggest export controls... that only shifts the shortages somewhere else in the world. So if you're saying the plan is to subsidize our ability to export the pain of our lack of planning to other countries, I just can't support that. It's too cynical for me to bear. There is another timeline where we are not fighting over who gets to have all the deaths.

The plan is more to have a local, public owned if necessary, production line (for say, masks) which primary function is to supply national, public demand / a baseline public stockpile. Any surplus could be exported and it would reduce tension on the open market.

It's not export control, because yeah I agree countries seizing supplies that were to be shipped to legitimate clients who placed their order before is morally not great.

It's not as simple as that because I imagine you could argue it transfers the tension to raw materials.

Obviously more costly and less efficient in theory but considering the circus show we're in...

[VomKriege]

[Fifstar]

Don’t worry, Armin Laschet has a plan that allowing 150.000 students back to school next week will not do any harm. 

And I even voted for this guy, that’s what I get for betraying my party due to my problems with their education policy being single-issue scum.

Basing your political decisions on one highly controversial, not even finished study is peak galaxy brain.

Schools have three(!) days to prepare a concept to ensure social distancing measures. Yeah, I deserve all the scorn.   

Laschet gambling on that study to rescue his chances to run for Kanzler is pretty disgusting. I guess it's even more tempting now that the CDU chances to win the next election skyrocketed due to the crisis; can't imagine the Greens to rebound with the economic crisis coming and the SPD will stay a walking corpse.

Although I think there are more studies than the Heinsberg study that support the thesis that children and especially small children are a minor factor in the spread of the virus.

Here is a study from iceland where kids below 10 seem to have a significantly lower risk to be tested positive, both in targeted testing and in open testing: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100

Only speculation from me, but it seems likely that infections are mainly transmitted from symptomatic people, especially from people that cough/transmit larger amounts of virus. People that get infected by small doses also seem to develop more mild course of disease. As most infected kids expel only small doses of virus, it becomes even more unlikely that groups of little kids infect each other, even if their behaviour can't be controlled.

Took a look at that study and it seems like they only did PCR tests which is more or less useless for testing general infection of a population. So infection rate might actually be much higher.

PCR tests are only useful to detect the virus in the first time after the outbreak because the virus moves from the mucosa/pharynx of the mouth and nose (were samples are usually taken) down to the lungs. After that it can only be detected via ct or with antidote tests. Antidote tests aren't reliable enough/in testing stages as of yet.