Author Topic: Serious stonks strategy talk  (Read 25079 times)

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brawndolicious

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #180 on: March 09, 2020, 03:45:14 PM »
My AMD put from this morning ($44 exp 3/13) has about 10% return so far. I feel like letting it ride.

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james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #182 on: March 09, 2020, 03:51:33 PM »
Managing an international fund has made this harder to do :(
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Nintex

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #183 on: March 09, 2020, 03:57:16 PM »
I have no idea what to buy today :(
Invest in coffins?

Maybe alcohol.

Or we could get some cheap oil before the Russians flatten Saudi oil fields.

Another example of why the James Fund is the best fund. He values your input and opinion.
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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #184 on: March 09, 2020, 05:06:49 PM »
I have no idea what to buy today :(

short italian tinned tomatoes

long other tinned foods
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james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #185 on: March 10, 2020, 04:14:01 PM »
The fuck is the market doing
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shosta

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #186 on: March 10, 2020, 04:19:44 PM »
payroll tax cuts and stimulus promises. it's all hopeless though. we're still 1000 points lower than Friday's close.
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Propagandhim

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #187 on: March 10, 2020, 04:37:58 PM »
The fuck is the market doing

Likely just a resistant bounce from officially becoming a bear market.  It's kind of arbitrary, especially in the current context where the speed of decline is what's relevant,  but what is conventionally understood as a ' bear market' is a 20% drop from the previous high.  We're right at the cusp: (S&P down 18.9%, DIA down 19.3%, Nasdaq  down 19% from all-time closing high.)

Or not.  Who knows.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 04:42:12 PM by Propagandhim »

james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #188 on: March 11, 2020, 03:30:18 PM »
Ive been too busy at work to strade stonks but I took a quick glance at the portfolio today

Disney puts: +341.80%


Get fucked shitty comic book action movie empire

 :tauntaun
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BisMarckie

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #189 on: March 11, 2020, 04:07:06 PM »
How are the Vegas stonks doing? :money

james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #190 on: March 11, 2020, 04:43:35 PM »
How are the Vegas stonks doing? :money

I think it was up 2 hundred something

Oddly, my United puts have done the worst, only up like 30 percent. But theres still time for Trump to declare flying illegal
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Great Rumbler

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #191 on: March 11, 2020, 06:04:10 PM »
dog

jorma

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #192 on: March 11, 2020, 06:43:59 PM »
How are the Vegas stonks doing? :money

I think it was up 2 hundred something

Oddly, my United puts have done the worst, only up like 30 percent. But theres still time for Trump to declare flying illegal

Did you already forget that you didn't actually buy United Airlines?  :lol

BisMarckie

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #193 on: March 11, 2020, 06:45:11 PM »
How are the Vegas stonks doing? :money

I think it was up 2 hundred something

Oddly, my United puts have done the worst, only up like 30 percent. But theres still time for Trump to declare flying illegal

Did you already forget that you didn't actually buy United Airlines?  :lol

That’s why I trust James with my hard earned money.

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james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #195 on: March 12, 2020, 12:17:51 AM »
How are the Vegas stonks doing? :money

I think it was up 2 hundred something

Oddly, my United puts have done the worst, only up like 30 percent. But theres still time for Trump to declare flying illegal

Did you already forget that you didn't actually buy United Airlines?  :lol

I circled back and bought some after my friend Jared told me he was about to ban flights from Europe

Aal puts going to print
:O


brawndolicious

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #197 on: March 12, 2020, 10:10:54 AM »
Holy shit its already a 2000 point drop, (8.5%). Obviously it's the biggest single day point drop but if it doesn't rebound by the end of day, then that makes it the biggest percentage drop since 1987.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 10:15:22 AM by brawndolicious »

shosta

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #198 on: March 12, 2020, 10:11:30 AM »
We're currently 1500 points away from Dow 20,000 :dead
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Flannel Boy

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #199 on: March 12, 2020, 10:11:45 AM »
21,612.53 −1,940.69 (8.24%)

Joe Molotov

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #200 on: March 12, 2020, 10:14:23 AM »
HODL
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shosta

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #201 on: March 12, 2020, 10:16:52 AM »
Who wants to bet on when we hit 15,000?
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brawndolicious

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #202 on: March 12, 2020, 10:29:19 AM »
Who wants to bet on when we hit 15,000?

A 50% drop from the peak? That took like a year to happen after the 2008 meltdown.

If unemployment shoots up then maybe it will but it seems unlikely. WTF knows though.

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #203 on: March 12, 2020, 10:35:57 AM »
Who wants to bet on when we hit 15,000?

Hard pass. 

james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #204 on: March 12, 2020, 11:10:35 AM »
A special fuck you to Occam who told me over PM to sell my SPY puts because it was the smart play

I could have bought the bore dot com with my tendies :(
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brawndolicious

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #205 on: March 12, 2020, 11:59:39 AM »
For everyone who doesn't invest, just know that this is a TERRIBLE time to invest. There is just volatility, these types of events are decades apart and there is no textbook example of how to act.

I do it for fun. Yesterday my put options (betting against a stock) were down 50% and now they're up 80% from what I bought them at on Tuesday. On Wednesday afternoon, I was totally prepared to lose what I put in.

When the market acts smart, you act smart. When it acts dumb, you act dumb. This might be a fun time to invest but be prepared to lose everything for no good reason. And in case you're wondering, I was betting AGAINST a GOOD company (AMD). So it's really not about how much successful a company is being right now. It's just all chaos and fear.

Edit: I'm up over a 100% now. Again, this is why they call it stonks.

shosta

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #206 on: March 12, 2020, 12:10:02 PM »
I think the biggest reason why you don't want to invest right now, even though the economy might "recover" fully in a few years, is that GDP is a unit root process, not trend stationary, so its recovery level might be significantly lower than what the talking heads are expecting. This is what led to a kind of infamous back and forth between Paul Krugman and Greg Mankiw. And this also happens to be why the World Bank growth forecasts from 2010 onward were always way, way off.

https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/03/roots-of-evil-wonkish/
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brawndolicious

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #207 on: March 12, 2020, 12:22:39 PM »
I think the biggest reason why you don't want to invest right now, even though the economy might "recover" fully in a few years, is that GDP is a unit root process, not trend stationary, so its recovery level might be significantly lower than what the talking heads are expecting. This is what led to a kind of infamous back and forth between Paul Krugman and Greg Mankiw. And this also happens to be why the World Bank growth forecasts from 2010 onward were always way, way off.

https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/03/roots-of-evil-wonkish/

We're definitely in a bad spot. The unemployment numbers from the last few years are over-inflated with contractor positions which means people are often poorly compensated and can be laid off easily. I would not be surprised at all if the recovery is slower than 2009-2012.

Propagandhim

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #208 on: March 12, 2020, 12:27:43 PM »
I can't believe Lagarde right now. 

james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #209 on: March 12, 2020, 12:59:09 PM »
My Disney put is up 538.55%  :doge
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BisMarckie

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #210 on: March 12, 2020, 01:00:42 PM »
. When it acts dumb, you act dumb.

Again, this is why gave money to a guy who buys Under Armour put options by accident.  :money

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james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #212 on: March 12, 2020, 01:07:30 PM »
And now my puts are plummeting because the fed is taking all our money and spending it at once  :doge :doge :doge
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james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #213 on: March 12, 2020, 01:08:49 PM »
I lost like $1000 in profits in the last 4 minutes


Dont worry boys, im holding. Feds got nothing on me
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BisMarckie

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #214 on: March 12, 2020, 01:10:23 PM »
Excessive greed is a necessary character trait for a successful options trader.

NEVER SETTLE FOR A MEAGER 500% PROFIT

shosta

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #215 on: March 12, 2020, 01:10:52 PM »
And now my puts are plummeting because the fed is taking all our money and spending it at once  :doge :doge :doge
The federal reserve doesn't spend your money, it creates it ex nihilo.
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james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #216 on: March 12, 2020, 01:11:06 PM »
Can the stock experts please chime in on whats happening right now
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james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #217 on: March 12, 2020, 01:11:50 PM »
Is this how inflation happens
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shosta

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #218 on: March 12, 2020, 01:13:40 PM »
You miming Reddit and making fat returns despite knowing literally nothing is kind of like when Yugi lets the Pharaoh take over the wheel and Yugi wins every match
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james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #219 on: March 12, 2020, 01:15:28 PM »
You miming Reddit and making fat returns despite knowing literally nothing is kind of like when Yugi lets the Pharaoh take over the wheel and Yugi wins every match

Excuse me but I read various options guides and none of them talked about the fed doing this
:O

shosta

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #220 on: March 12, 2020, 01:18:58 PM »
You didn't know what quantitative easing is?
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BisMarckie

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #221 on: March 12, 2020, 01:20:54 PM »
The US government is taking my money. It‘s just like Weimar Germany. :stahp

Propagandhim

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #222 on: March 12, 2020, 01:21:03 PM »
I love you, James.  Read a fucking CNBC article or something .   :lol   Fed ramped up repo program (adding liquidity to bank lending) that it announced a day ago.  Also increased amount of instruments for purchase, including coupon bonds which ppl have been demanding for awhile.  What does this mean for your tendies?  Who the fuck knows.  You're holding onto puts that made 5x it's money on the quickest downturn in decades.  At this point, I'm just impressed that you didn't get suckered into buying weeklies, but the fact that you're still holding onto these things, despite not knowing much of anything (which is okay, if you're new to this), and after that kind of serendipity ...  :lol :lol  You're hilarious and I love you.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 01:25:50 PM by Propagandhim »

shosta

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #223 on: March 12, 2020, 01:25:08 PM »
this is without a doubt the best thread
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james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #224 on: March 12, 2020, 01:31:39 PM »
You didn't know what quantitative easing is?

I know it means we're bailing out wall street again
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shosta

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #225 on: March 12, 2020, 01:34:11 PM »
That's actually not what QE is, it's the federal reserve purchasing bonds back so that banks can lend their money instead of waiting for treasury notes to mature. The bailout was when the federal government purchased toxic assets from failing banks and gave them enough money to stay afloat while they clean up their books and recapitalize.
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james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #226 on: March 12, 2020, 01:35:41 PM »
I'm just impressed that you didn't get suckered into buying weeklies

I didnt understand why the trading volume on some dates was so low (and the bid ask spread so high), but a nice person on wsb explained to me that some weeks are better than others and I should stick to the popular closing dates and thats been working out well for me
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james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #227 on: March 12, 2020, 01:36:36 PM »
That's actually not what QE is, it's the federal reserve purchasing bonds back so that banks can lend their money instead of waiting for treasury notes to mature. The bailout was when the federal government purchased toxic assets from failing banks and gave them enough money to stay afloat while they clean up their books and recapitalize.

Dont bonds make like 1%? Seems pretty toxic to use my tax money to buy something with such small gains. Maybe the feds should start buying puts.
:O

shosta

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #228 on: March 12, 2020, 01:37:44 PM »
I literally just said that the fed doesn't use your tax money to do this, the printer just goes brrrrrr and money floods into the economy.
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Propagandhim

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #229 on: March 12, 2020, 01:39:45 PM »
I'm just impressed that you didn't get suckered into buying weeklies

I didnt understand why the trading volume on some dates was so low (and the bid ask spread so high), but a nice person on wsb explained to me that some weeks are better than others and I should stick to the popular closing dates and thats been working out well for me

Because it's a gambling instrument.  They were not offered in the past because they were such a rotten deal, although they've gotten better in recent years.   Weeklies allow people with small accounts to day trade because you barely need any margin, and the theta decay is so quick on the final moments of expiry.  Legally, you're allowed 3 day trades per week if you have under 25k in your account.  But yes, the bid/ask is terrible. 

A little clarification:  They're a gambling instrument and a poor choice for the average retail trader.  They're a good hedging tool for hedgefunds that can tank market risk, and regularly selling thousands of out-of-the-money weekly options scales well as a strategy, but is obviously out of reach for people like us.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 01:55:17 PM by Propagandhim »

BisMarckie

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #230 on: March 12, 2020, 01:40:45 PM »
Holding onto a put option that already made 500% profit is like, to use a sports betting analogy, betting on a huge underdog that miracolously pulled ahead hoping they would run up the score. :lol

james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #231 on: March 12, 2020, 01:41:42 PM »
I literally just said that the fed doesn't use your tax money to do this, the printer just goes brrrrrr and money floods into the economy.

Who funds the printer dickwad you ever bought toner before it's expensive as fuck

 :karen
:O

james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #232 on: March 12, 2020, 01:43:12 PM »
I'm just impressed that you didn't get suckered into buying weeklies

I didnt understand why the trading volume on some dates was so low (and the bid ask spread so high), but a nice person on wsb explained to me that some weeks are better than others and I should stick to the popular closing dates and thats been working out well for me

Because it's a gambling instrument.  They were not offered in the past because they were such a rotten deal, although they've gotten better in recent years.   Weeklies allow people with small accounts to day trade because you barely need any margin, and the theta decay is so quick on the final moments of expiry.  Legally, you're allowed 3 day trades per week if you have under 25k in your account .  But yes, the bid/ask is terrible.

Someone on wsb posted about their sister being flagged for day trading and luckily I googled that shit and avoided some serious consequences

 :whew

Who knew the free market was so fucking regulated
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james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #233 on: March 12, 2020, 01:43:55 PM »
Holding onto a put option that already made 500% profit is like, to use a sports betting analogy, betting on a huge underdog that miracolously pulled ahead hoping they would run up the score. :lol

Relevant:

 :brazilcry
:O

shosta

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #234 on: March 12, 2020, 01:52:20 PM »
I really don't know anything about gambling on insurance for stocks but QE doesn't satisfy me in the absence of fiscal stimulus and people are saying that the floor could be as low as 30%. I also don't think people understand just how bad the oil price cratering in combination with countrywide lockdowns is going to shake financial markets. Prices recovered slightly today because fickle people reacted to the news but the serious investors have all left the market and are praying to God.

That's also why all these bounces always turn into bigger crashes the next day as smarter investors realize that the price recovery was completely unjustified.
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james

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #235 on: March 12, 2020, 01:53:18 PM »
I really don't know anything about gambling on insurance for stocks but QE doesn't satisfy me in the absence of fiscal stimulus and people are saying that the floor could be as low as 30%. I also don't think people understand just how bad the oil price cratering in combination with countrywide lockdowns is going to shake financial markets. Prices recovered slightly from cratering because people reacted to the news but the serious investors have all left the market and are praying to God.

So youre saying I should hold onto those puts

 :rash
:O

shosta

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #236 on: March 12, 2020, 01:54:08 PM »
chase your tendies
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shosta

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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #237 on: March 12, 2020, 02:05:06 PM »
Quote
Dow is back down 1,600 points as Fed intervention causes just a temporary respite from selling

It lasted only minutes. ::)
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Re: Serious stonks strategy talk
« Reply #238 on: March 12, 2020, 02:15:10 PM »
the only thing more hilarious than james is the fed  :lol

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