It's hilarious they seem to think Obama is gonna "overreach" thus causing republicans to take control in 2010, just like in 94.
Oh he's going to overreach. There's no doubt about that. The DEM congress ensures it. In fact, the bigger the margin he wins by, the greater the overreach will be. "Mandate", etc. Will it be enough to flip congress in 2010? No way. But, it will definately be the start of getting the Senate back in GOP hands.
Dude, what seats do you see the GOP picking up? There are 15 Dem seats vs. 19 GOP seats. Show me which one of these you're gonna take:
Chris Dodd (CT)- lol right. Even if he retires you're not gonna win in New England.
Blanche Lincoln (AR)- possible but I doubt it. Despite voting for Republicans for President Arkansas is pretty comfortable with Dem Senators.
Barbara Boxer (CA)- Don't make me laugh. Even if AHNOLD runs, I doubt it.
Ken Salazar (CO)- Hispanic up for re-election in an increasingly Dem & Hispanic state. Nope.
Daniel Inouye (HI)- If Linda Lingle decides to run it could be possible. But only if Inouye retires.
Obama's seat (IL)- Yeah right.
Evan Bayh (IN)- Bayh can stay in this seat until the end of time, and he might want to run in 2016.
Barbara Mikulski (MD)- While she's old and likely to retire, your side isn't winning in Maryland anytime soon.
Harry Reid (NV)- I doubt it. Increasingly Democratic state, but you guys might try to headhunt here. Good luck.
Chuck Schumer (NY)- Keep dreaming.
Byron Dorgan (ND)- Probably your best shot other than Arkansas.
Ron Wyden (OR)- Haha. NOT.
Patrick Leahy (VT)- Even if he retires, Vermont will just send another Socialist to the Senate.
Patty Murray (WA)- Nope.
Russ Feingold (WI)- Your side would love to take him down as he's so unrepentantly liberal, but he's massively popular in Wisconsin.
So maybe two vulnerable Dem seats in AR and ND, with a shot in HI if Inouye retires.
Now let's look at just the vulnerable GOP seats in 2010:
John McCain (AZ)- Increasingly Dem state with a large Hispanic population. McCain is old and will probably be downtrodden after his upcoming rejection on Tuesday. Napolitano is primed to step in.
Lisa Murkowski (AK)- Emblematic of the old corrupt Alaska GOP. Appointed by her father. Could get primaried by Palin. Could easily lose to Tony Knowles.
Mel Martinez (FL)- Hispanics in Florida are increasingly dem leaning. Florida might flip columns this year. Do I hear "Senator Wasserman-Schultz"? Yes, yes I do.
Chuck Grassley (IA)- Increasingly dem leaning state.
Jim Bunning (KY)- Insane and barely won in 2004. Ben Chandler could probably win.
Judd Gregg (NH)- Even moderate Republicans in the North East are becoming an endangered species. NH is a weird state, tho. I'd give him the edge but it could be a race.
Richard Burr (NC)- Not popular in his home state. Could easily lose to Mike Easley, the current Governor who is leaving office this year. Or Attorney General Roy Cooper. Or my congressman, Mike McIntyre.
George Voinovich (OH)- Always a swing state with close elections. In my dreams, I wake up on an early November day in 2010 to hear the words "Senator Dennis Kucinich" but that's not likely.
Arlen Specter (PA)- Massive Dem voter reg advantage in PA now. Specter is old and cancer ridden, he might retire even tho he says he won't now. He could win if Chris Matthews wins the primary, but I'm betting on Joe Sestak.
So that's 9 GOP seats I see as vulnerable in 2010, wouldn't be surprised if we pick off another 4-5. Especially if Schumer is still running things.
