International Politics Thread - Disease and Disaster

[Nintex]

Whenever I see the tories fuck about I'm always reminded of one of Adam Curtis' documentaries.

Where he explains that back when the British empire had colonies and none of the spoils actually made it home (i.e. the upkeep of the empire was too expensive and most people lived in poverty in the UK itself) there was a large group of people that had formed their own reality of a 'conservative' Brittain, where everyone was living a happy, wealthy and peaceful family life that didn't really exist. Basically to wash away what they felt were the sins of colonialism and escape from the dismal state of the empire, creating a world that only existed in their fantasies. He said that subjects from abroad (India and the likes) that had learned about this amazing empire from their teachers were nothing less but shocked when they went to Brittain to basically find a dump.

Margaret Thatcher revived the idea of past glory (that didn't really exist) and now the conservatives are again clinging to this idealistic view of a history that was mostly made up.

[Nintex]

UK calls for any British nationals to leave Ukraine immediately.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1492205137342906369

Apparently Putin lectured Macron for 5 hours on history and all the ways NATO deceived Russia since 1997.
US says the invasion is to start as early as tuesday apparently with heavy aerial and artilly bombardments followed by a drive on Kyiv with the aim of regime change.

[james]

Why doesn't the US lend the Ukraine a few defensive nukes

[Nintex]

Why doesn't the US lend the Ukraine a few defensive nukes

Those anti-tank missiles will be devastating for the Russian columns.
Ukraine won't just roll over, they didn't last time when they had no army.

If Putin goes ahead with this it will end in disaster. Especially if they move on Kyiv.

[Potato]

Russian mothers hate body bags. This ain't going to end well for Putin.

[james]

Russia also reporting all-time covid highs (again) so great timing all around

[james]

https://twitter.com/kirkish_john/status/1492242424445292545

 

[Nintex]

I think people are getting caught up in the 'technicality' of Russia invading Ukraine.

They don't have to invade, they can just help the seperatists in the East with the airforce and remote artillery and missiles like NATO did in Libya and take out the Ukrainian airforce with their anti-air weapons stationed across the borders of Belarus and Russia.
All they need to do is cause just enough chaos that in the fog of war they can destabilize the country and ground or destroy the Ukranian airforce and block the navy and merchant shipping routes.
Then they can bring Russian peacekeepers into the East as a stabilizing force with food, medicine and other supplies at the request of the seperatist leaders.

Zelensky would have to flee to Poland and then it would be easy to stage a counter coup to oust the maidan parties in favor of the pro-Russian groups.
If Ukraine decides to fight instead, they have a ground army in place that is not large enough to occupy the country but capable enough to destroy the Ukranian army and the mercenary groups.

Russia could maintain their promise to Macron and the UK that they didn't invade and were invited by the new Ukranian leadership and there would be little anyone can do but to accept the new political reality.
The Russians would explain any incursion into East Ukraine as an effort to defend the Russian seperatists (now citizens) living there.

[benjipwns]

Meanwhile, in Canadian CHOP/CHAZ:
https://twitter.com/pdmcleod/status/1492257724154798082
https://twitter.com/pdmcleod/status/1492311271194054658

[fizzel]

Good on them.

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/1492346573031890947

https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/1492364416997801990

It's like we're living through a persistent Mandela Effect where the world has turned upside down.

[Rufus]

Why doesn't the US lend the Ukraine a few defensive nukes

They used to have a huge arsenal, but
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

[who is ted danson?]

https://nypost.com/2022/02/11/prince-andrew-was-obsessed-with-anal-sex-physical-therapist/amp/

   

[Nintex]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/lavrov-russia-diplomacy-ukraine/622075/

Why the West’s Diplomacy With Russia Keeps Failing

Instead of offering empty language about rules and values, she could have started the press conference like this:

Good Evening, ladies and gentlemen of the press. I am delighted to join you after meeting my Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. This time, we have not bothered to discuss treaties he won’t respect and promises he won’t keep. We have told him, instead, that an invasion of Ukraine will carry very, very high costs—higher than he has ever imagined. We are now planning to cut off Russian gas exports completely—Europe will find its energy supplies somewhere else. We are now preparing to assist the Ukrainian resistance, for a decade if need be. We are quadrupling our support for the Russian opposition, and for Russian media too. We want to make sure that Russians will start hearing the truth about this invasion, and as loudly as possible. And if you want to do regime change in Ukraine, we’ll get to work on regime change in Russia.

No one has taken seriously the idea that Germans should now make themselves independent of Russian gas

FACT CHECK

“If you look at it, Germany is a captive of Russia. They got rid of their coal plants, they got rid of their nuclear, they’re getting so much of their oil and gas from Russia. I think it is something NATO has to look at. It is very inappropriate.”

Never thought Anne Applebaum would write a story that essentially says: "We need Trump back" probably without realizing it or mentioning him by name but here we are.

[Nintex]

Zelensky wants Biden to come and visit. Most oligarchs have already fled the country.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1492968672889122820

[benjipwns]

Minister of Defense of Ukraine out here tweeting Battlefield 3 keyart:
https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1492519198056235010

[benjipwns]

https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1492904639427190788

[Nintex]

Zelesnky has declared the invasion day a national holiday.
He has also summoned MP's and Oligarchs back to the country.
MP's will face 'serious consequences' if they don't return.

https://twitter.com/GreenhalghSarah/status/1493284810726551553

Putin met with Lavrov

https://twitter.com/dimsmirnov175/status/1493214921802330119

Apparently only 24 members of parliament out of 400 showed up today
https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/status/1493280167648710669

[who is ted danson?]

https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1492904639427190788

https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1493251278746570760

 

every fuckin time

[Nintex]

Maybe they just like the brand


Breaking US says Russians are moving into firing positions

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1493294188716335110

US evacuating their embassy all the way to the west

https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1493298704127823879

[Nintex]

US has decided to scuttle their equipment in Kyiv.
https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1493297907977629699

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/vplus/status/1493306416525942785



https://twitter.com/TheRealKeean/status/1493292414441857034

Ukraine won't invoke martial law with half the Russian army at their doorstep.
Trudeau might invoke martial law to deal with a bunch of honking truckers.

[james]

I feel like there wasnt be enough discussion about how the president of the Ukraine is an actor who was elected after playing the president on TV.

It should lead every article.

IE:

"A senior Ukrainian official has denied that President Zelensky, a former actor best known for playing the president of the Ukraine on TV, was being literal when he said in an address to the nation that he'd been told a Russian attack would begin on February 16th. Mykhailo Podoliak, a Presidential adviser, that Zelensky was being ironic."

[BisMarckie]

I'm not a president, but I play one on TV

[Potato]

Eastern European politics is like a bunch of scifi authors got together to create the ultimate "what if" speculative fiction reality ever...except its real.

[Potato]

Interesting take from the Australian Financial Review on the Ukraine situation.

https://www.afr.com/world/europe/how-biden-is-using-putin-s-playbook-against-him-20220214-p59wg4

The US and Britain have warned a Russian invasion of Ukraine could come in days, and well it might.

President Vladimir Putin’s troop build-up around the country has reached what most analysts agree is its very pointy end.

On the other hand, the Kremlin repeatedly says it has no intention to invade – a move that would, after all, be costly and potentially catastrophic for Russia.

So, why exactly are US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson sounding so alarmed? Why are they evacuating diplomats and military staff, and making increasingly dire prophecies of conflict?

Maybe their intelligence is saying something different to the Kremlin’s most recent soothing words, which would be no surprise.

But maybe Washington and London are actually engaged in a bit of Putin-style gamesmanship.

This idea starts from the premise that unless Putin is feeling particularly reckless about the reputational consequences for Russia that could follow an invasion, he needs a pretext.

If Biden can establish the idea that Russia is pre-planning an invasion – including the possibility of staging a “false flag” incident to justify it – this would make things more difficult for Putin.

It would undermine the plausibility of any Kremlin claim that Russia had been forced to respond to provocation or was taking defensive action.

Putin is the past master of disinformation and legerdemain, which he has used in previous military offensives on his western fringe. But the US-led strategy is turning his weapons back against him.

In the face of Biden’s intelligence barrage, it would be difficult for Putin to follow his usual invasion-annexation playbook – that he is helping oppressed Russian minorities, or responding to threats, or keeping the peace.

His ambassador to the EU was flying that kite on Monday, so it’s still out there. But it would surely be much harder for Russia to bring fellow travellers – other countries, and anti-American constituencies worldwide – along with this story. Even the task of selling it to the Russian public could be more tricky.

Other Western countries, such as France and Germany, seem to be trying a different, more traditional tack to Biden and Johnson.

‘A whiff of Munich’
By playing the role of peace-seeking diplomats against Putin’s militarism, they hope to seem like the good guys, painting the Russian into a corner where he has no moral authority to invade.

But this is a game Russia understands how to play. It is less likely to stop an invasion, leaving more space for Moscow to find the right “we had no choice” narrative. And to Putin, the Franco-German approach seems more like weakness.

Little wonder that British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said acidly on Sunday he could detect “a whiff of Munich in the air from some in the West”.

The other dissenter from the American strategy is Ukraine itself. President Volodymyr Zelensky has criticised the US for spreading anxiety and panic with its predictions of imminent invasion.

His immediate concern is that the US strategy of maximal alarm is turning Ukraine into an economic pariah, which could sap his ability to maintain the authority and credibility of his regime and its liberal, Western orientation.

He might also be concerned that the Biden-Johnson strategy could blow up in their faces. The febrile atmosphere the White House has created could open up an opportunity for Putin to engineer a misstep that gives him the pretext he needs.

Western hysteria
It’s always possible that Putin himself will be wrong-footed, or misstep. An invasion certainly looks like a big stumble into high costs and unclear benefits. Putin would face a fiercer and united NATO on his doorstep, and a new round of sanctions and diplomatic isolation, and a truculent Ukraine to keep under control.

Interestingly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the weekend made the first rhetorical intimations of what a Putin climbdown might look like. He said the West had mistaken routine military manoeuvres for something more sinister, and had over-reacted.

“After Russian troops finish drills and return to barracks, the West will declare ‘diplomatic victory’ by having ‘secured’ Russian de-escalation,” he said. Nothing to see here, is the suggestion, just Western hysteria and Russophobia.

[Nintex]

Some European diplomats and journalists believe that with Zelensky's approval rating tanking, the withdrawal from Afghanistan and COVID taking up all the headlines the government in Ukraine wanted more attention and aid from the US, EU and NATO in general.
Mostly because they're not yet in the EU or NATO they won't receive any COVID aid from the various EU programmes.
So in the second half of 2021 they pointed the US and NATO to the Russian build-up of forces among the border. Estimating and warning their allies that there was an 80% chance that Russia would invade.
The US doubted this but went to work anyway to counter this threat in various ways such as providing Ukraine with indeed more aid and military training and threatening Russia with consequences as well as putting NordStream 2 under pressure again.

Russia noticed this and in response increased their hostility towards the US and Ukraine in particular. Fearing Ukraine with US help would make a move on the Crimea (something he has been paranoid about ever since he took it).
Putin is also under quite a bit of pressure domestically and dealing with crises in Belarus and Kazachstan. In such situations he often resorts to a 'show of force'.

In conclusion Ukraine got the attention that it wanted from various countries (US, UK, France) but more than they bargained for because most leaders are under pressure and looking to increase their approval ratings.
All this has done is pour gasoline on the fire that is the collapse of the economy of Ukraine. And that is why Zelensky has been acting all 'why doesn't anyone think about the economy?' as of late and downplaying the threat of invasion.

Meanwhile by playing ball Putin got what he wanted without firing a single shot so far.
Completing the 'exercises' as a show of force, a parade of 'failed' diplomatic missions from the west, keeping Belarus in line, possibly a 'diplomatic' solution on the Crimea (because the EU doesn't want a conflict) and the US pulling out their military advisors and diplomats from areas that matter.
https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1493364058480955395

The Duma has now voted and asks Putin to recognize the Donbass as independent from Ukraine (and Russia).
https://www.dw.com/en/russian-duma-asks-putin-to-recognize-ukrainian-regions-as-independent/a-60783596

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1493594086946836484

https://twitter.com/TRTWorldNow/status/1493596347676741633

Do you hear a protest from the German chancellor as Putin says they talked about rolling back NATO to the 1997 borders?

[Raist]

You're flip-flopping as quickly as Boris, impressive

[benjipwns]

https://twitter.com/SethAMandel/status/1493600934508863499

[Nintex]

Reuters seems to think this thing is still on.

https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/status/1493681084084760578

Power cut during Biden remarks

https://twitter.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/1493688179270070281

[Nintex]

The Sun writes surprisingly specific that this thing will go off at 1AM UK time so in about 2 hours from now.
Some DDOS and Cyber attacks seem to have started.

Scholz asked Zelensky to recognize Moscow's interpretation of the Minsk agreements by granting the Donbass autonomy but Zelensky refused.

A US Black Hawk just landed at the border with Poland
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1493712454802624523

US says they can now see the Russians heading towards the border
https://twitter.com/CBSWalsh/status/1493688067361849349

[james]

Nintex do you think the EU will draft you into the war against Russian Aggression?

[Nintex]

Nintex do you think the EU will draft you into the war against Russian Aggression?

Like I said before, if I was commanding the NATO forces we would be holding a victory parade in Moscow next week.

CBS thinks Russia's move is bigger than just Ukraine
https://twitter.com/NorahODonnell/status/1493690041465548800

[BisMarckie]

I wish I was some "geopolitical expert" that gets paraded around on TV to spout his World War 3 fanfictions.

Benji, you work in polsci, can you help me out there?

[james]

Nintex you have my number text me if you see nukes overhead heading to the US

[BisMarckie]

Nintex you have my number text me if you see nukes overhead heading to the US

Look at a globe you dummy, you need a Canadian to do that for you.

[Nintex]

Ok, 4chan controls the play list on the Reuters stream.

So far we've had the Russian Anthem and the Rick Roll song.
I can't quite make out what is playing now, but it sounds like the Evangelion theme?



Yes they're playing KOMM, SÜSSER TOD

[BisMarckie]

Putin is a mean man. He's always been one to put others before himself, and he's done it again. He's decided to invade the Netherlands, and he's doing it with the help of his friend, the Dutch Prime Minister. The Dutch are defending their country, but Putin is determined to take it. He's made his decision, and now it's time to take action

Pay me CNN

[benjipwns]

I wish I was some "geopolitical expert" that gets paraded around on TV to spout his World War 3 fanfictions.

Benji, you work in polsci, can you help me out there?

Have you tried writing your fan fiction in the form of a stupid book that plays to Thomas Friedman's personal interests and insecurities?

[benjipwns]

Speaking of, I had no idea Fareed Zakaria was such an unaccomplished fuckup until I read his Wikipedia page the other week. I had always assumed he had like written a book or something at least to earn his international platform.

Best part is the page was illustrated with pictures of him holding court with Barack Obama, John Kerry and Henry Kissinger at various important sounding conferences.

[BisMarckie]

Have you tried writing your fan fiction in the form of a stupid book that plays to Thomas Friedman's personal interests and insecurities?

That sounds like a lot of work, wouldn't a semi-successful twitter account with a blue checkmark suffice?

[BisMarckie]

According to a story in The New York Times on Woodward's book, the Wolfowitz meeting ultimately produced a report for President George W. Bush that supported the subsequent invasion of Iraq. Zakaria, however, later told The New York Times that he had briefly attended what he thought was "a brainstorming session

Whoops 

[james]

Nintex you have my number text me if you see nukes overhead heading to the US

Look at a globe you dummy, you need a Canadian to do that for you.

Do they not teach geography in Europe?

[shosta]

[Nintex]

The Russians built a new bridge to quickly enter and cross the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone
https://twitter.com/ameliairheart/status/1493744616448970755



Also what's with Chernobyl being close to Kiev, another Mandela effect?
I remember that it was in the east. In fact, I distinctly remember people being worried about the Sarcophagus being damaged when the Donbass fighting began.

[BisMarckie]

This was all a ploy by the American Miltary Industrial Complex to sell more of their crap to Ukraine in the future.

[benjipwns]

Nintex you have my number text me if you see nukes overhead heading to the US

Look at a globe you dummy, you need a Canadian to do that for you.

Do they not teach geography in Europe?

(Image removed from quote.)

Earth ain't flat, Kyrie. Get vaccinated.

[tiesto]

Speaking of, I had no idea Fareed Zakaria was such an unaccomplished fuckup until I read his Wikipedia page the other week. I had always assumed he had like written a book or something at least to earn his international platform.

Best part is the page was illustrated with pictures of him holding court with Barack Obama, John Kerry and Henry Kissinger at various important sounding conferences.

He wrote a few... "The Post American World" is one I actually read (I don't read very often tbh, really need to fix that).

[chronovore]

Nintex you have my number text me if you see nukes overhead heading to the US

Look at a globe you dummy, you need a Canadian to do that for you.

Do they not teach geography in Europe?

(Image removed from quote.)

Earth ain't flat, Kyrie. Get vaccinated.

Yeah, one side effect of global warming is that ships are going to be sailing over that polar region, as it's a shorter route.

...

[who is ted danson?]

It's a nothingburger 

[Nintex]

The armchair generals are taking it well

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1493827239531667461

[james]

What if they invite Russia to join NATO?

[Nintex]

What if they invite Russia to join NATO?

This is basically what Putin and Merkel wanted, a free trade zone from Vladivostok to Lisbon and some sort of alliance between NATO and Russia to fight common enemies.

But there's 3 main problems.
- Putin wants it to happen on 'equal' terms for 'his side', which means all of the eastern block at once on Russia's terms or no one at all (the EU prefers to do it step by step)
- The US doesn't like the idea as it would undermine their favorite weapon of choice: sanctions. And the EU wouldn't demand regime change (remember that Yanukovich started the process for Ukraine).
- For Europe NATO is supposed to be the military alliance and the EU is the political body. But NATO has become more political in its decision making and the EU wants to have an army of its own

The US wants NATO to be more of a political tool rather than just a deterrent and they want a bigger commitment from its members to act in unity as long as the US is carrying most of the costs.
A crisis like this used to be a boon for NATO but now only increases support for an EU army instead. One that doesn't necessarily answer to NATO and by extension the US.

And finally the biggest irony is of course that even though the Americans complain that Europe doesn't want to pay for its own security, countries like France and Germany don't necessarily think the type of 'security' the Americans offer against Russia is necessary.
As they've long stopped believing that Russia would attempt a land invasion past Kiev and all NATO needs to do is secure the border with Poland and the Baltics. They think it's more important that NATO can respond to an international crisis with a mobile and aircraft carrier force than defend national borders they prefer to remove entirely.

[Pissy F Benny]

I cant help put think that has played the west like a damn fiddle

[who is ted danson?]

I cant help put think that has played the west like a damn fiddle

I'm now contractually obliged to post:

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1493993342333558792

[Nintex]

Attention Russia watchers, February 20th is the new date to watch for reasons.

https://twitter.com/alexbward/status/1494058265642254344

[james]

Nintendo blackboard meme but with russian invasion dates

[benjipwns]

https://twitter.com/wounddwrrior420/status/1493580304316915713