International Politics Thread - Disease and Disaster

[benjipwns]

In the interest of being Fair and Balanced™, for Jack:

*lights up the Jack Remington signal again*

SHILLARY SHILLARY SHILLARY EMAILS EMAILS EMAILS.

Ok, you here?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/05/01/midterm-elections-republicans-hillary-clinton-political-ads-congress-ohio-governor/565800002/

When Hillary Clinton lost her 2016 bid for the presidency, she retired from politics.

In Ohio, it's as if she never left.

More than 5,000 TV commercials this year have mentioned Clinton, all in the state's nasty GOP primary for governor. Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor and Attorney General Mike DeWine are each trying to claim real-Republican status, using Clinton to cast doubt on their opponent's conservative credentials.

As a U.S. senator, "D.C. DeWine voted with Hillary Clinton 962 times" in six years, says one TV commercial from Taylor's campaign. The Senate roll-call voice then reads out "Aye" for both Clinton and DeWine on immigration, spending and gun control bills.

GOP ads around the country echo the Taylor campaign's use of Clinton. That's desperate, Democrats say: Republicans are pointing to a defeated presidential candidate to avoid talking about their party's short list of accomplishments since they took control of Washington.


In a GOP primary, though, it's actually a smart strategy, said Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes governor and Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

"The end goal is to taint somebody as not conservative enough, and there are limited ways to do that," she said. "If you tie them to an unpopular Democrat, that helps really hammer home that message."

In total, nearly 13,000 TV commercials Jan. 1 through April 24 mentioned or showed a photo of Clinton, according to data compiled for the USA TODAY Network by Kantar Media's Campaign Media Analysis Group.

Republicans in the Ohio governor's race ran the most ads, followed by West Virginia Republicans running for governor and the GOP candidates for Indiana Senate.

In fact, only former President Barack Obama has appeared in more ads. Clinton's total even tops that of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, who has been mentioned in nearly 10,000 commercials in 2018.

The strategy could forecast a slew of anti-Clinton ads this fall in states President Trump won handily, as Republicans try to beat back Democrats' push to regain control of Congress. In the same way, Democrats will be tying GOP candidates to Trump in the states where Trump's margin was thin, or where Clinton won, Duffy said.

Republican strategists say Clinton remains a deeply polarizing figure, even in defeat. Clinton proved that herself in March. During a trip to India, the Democratic nominee argued she won parts of the county that were more economically vibrant, while Trump won in the Midwest and other places by appealing to voters who want to move “backwards.”

“His whole campaign — ‘Make America Great Again’ — was looking backwards,” Clinton said in response to a question about how Trump won. “You know, you didn’t like black people getting rights, you don’t like women, you know, getting jobs, you don’t want, you know, to see that Indian American succeeding more than you are.”

National Republicans pounced on Clinton’s comments. The GOP’s Senate campaign committee immediately launched a digital ad campaign targeting 10 Senate Democrats in states that Trump won with spots reminding voters of their support for Clinton.

“She called you ‘deplorable,” one spot reminded voters in Missouri. “Now she’s called you ‘backwards.’ … And if Claire McCaskill had her way, Hillary Clinton would be president.”

McCaskill is one of the most vulnerable incumbent Senate Democrat up for re-election this year, running in Missouri where Trump won by 19 percentage points. The NRSC ads also ran in Ohio, Montana, and elsewhere — sending Democrats into a scramble to distance themselves from Clinton.

“Whenever (Clinton) inserts herself into the conversation and continues to make comments that Trump voters are backwards or deplorable, it’s a reminder to folks in red states that supported him that you’re sitting senator sided with her over the president you voted for,” said Katie Martin, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Republicans are the ones looking backward, Democrats say — because the GOP has nothing else to talk about as Republicans try to maintain their grip on power.

“It’s obvious that Republicans are desperate,” said David Bergstein, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. The GOP tax cut isn’t as popular as Republicans had hoped, he said, and Republicans haven’t accomplished much else. Moderate and independent voters may be worried about losing health care coverage or paying more under GOP proposals.

“This election will be a referendum on how Republicans have used their control of Washington to make life more difficult and expensive for working families,” Bergstein said.

But using Clinton makes it possible for GOP candidates to change the conversation. Voters know her, and it's easy to associate lesser-known candidates with what voters know — and don't like — about Clinton.

"She is a loser," said Andrew Downs, director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics. "Candidates are going to want to tie Democratic candidates to the person who lost. 'You rejected her. You should reject this person, too.' "

So far, in each of the states where negative ads mentioning Clinton have aired — Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana, Mississippi and Idaho — she lost badly to Trump in 2016. 

She lost by 42 points in West Virginia, which has a crowded GOP primary for U.S. Senate. There, Clinton was a natural tool in ads against U.S. Rep. Evan Jenkins, a former Democrat who switched party affiliations in 2013.

Although Jenkins backed Obama's successful 2008 bid for president, he attended an economic policy town hall meeting with Clinton in 2007. Ads accuse him of participating in a campaign rally for Clinton.

Jenkins is fighting back by using Clinton in his own ads. One spot shows her comment about Trump's campaign moving "backwards." "It's Hillary who's got it backwards," Jenkins says, looking into the camera. "I approve this message to help President Trump move America forward."

Trump and Republicans in Congress may be struggling with national approval, but there's no doubt where voters stand on Clinton, Republican strategists say. So Democrats may see Clinton-focused attacks this fall.

Take Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio. Polls show Brown leading his re-election bid. But Republicans could try to link him to Clinton, who lost Ohio by 8 points in 2016.

"For all the ups and downs across the country in polling, Ohio was a state for Donald Trump that he always had on lock," said Ethan Zorfas of Axiom Strategies, the GOP firm behind Taylor's anti-Clinton gubernatorial campaign in Ohio. "Democrats across the state of Ohio are going to have to weigh the support they gave to Hillary Clinton in 2016. It could affect the Senate race."

Brown appeals to Trump's working-class voters in Ohio, in part because of his longstanding concerns about free trade. When Trump was first elected, Brown wrote him a letter suggesting they collaborate on trade. Republicans, Duffy said, will try to tell voters: "Really, he was with Hillary and Obama. He's not who he says he is."

Even some conservatives disapprove of that strategy.

Commentator Tucker Carlson of Fox News has derided Republicans for running against "the ghost of some elderly retired nominee from last cycle," instead of telling voters what they would do with another two years in power. "Hillary Clinton doesn't run anything anymore — she doesn't represent the modern Democratic Party," he said last week.

But Clinton's ongoing comments, such as the "backwards" remark, show she never actually left politics, said Rob Secaur, executive director of the Ohio GOP. "If Hillary Clinton isn't the leader of the Democratic Party, who is?"

It's a bold strategy, but the democrats are right: She's no longer a front-runner. Attacking with that isn't a good move, but given Trump's states: It's preaching to the choir (his stupid voting bloc) and will energize them, likely. Will it work? Hard to say, but I wouldn't be surprised if it does.

That aside:

"the ghost of some elderly retired nominee,"

Hello there, new tag.

wrong thread you dummy

[curly]

Jack Remington wins this round

[Great Rumbler]

trolled the mustachioed man super hard

(Image removed from quote.)
(Image removed from quote.)
(Image removed from quote.)

Hope this shows up right cause it’s hilarious and I’m on my phone.

Your links aren't working.

[Great Rumbler]

At least your dad knows that Fox News is trash.

[curly]

IMPORTANT UPDATE FROM THE UK, THE TORIES ARE STANDING WEIRD

[Rufus]

These are probably just sneakily grabbed from a side-step, but funny nonetheless, bc silly island people.

[Broseidon]

Clearly you don't know about the Tory Power Stance

[Rufus]

Oh boy.

[Raist]

They've been shitting themselves ever since the Brexit vote. Of course they're going to stand like that.

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/AgniaGrigas/status/992499471538884608

TFW you beat everyone to the InfoWars

[Corporal]

Germany now has a solid 50-50 chance to get a (time-limited) seat in the UN security council. Probably even bigger than that, because lol Belgium, amirite.

Look forward to our crazy antics. What could possibly go wrong^TM? Last time we turbo-snubbed NATO with the Lybia issue, and since we've been unreasonably addicted to Russian pipe laying in recent times...

I just wonder what caused Israel to back off. Their vague "we've talked it over with our special friendos and other partners" makes it sound like there were loads of backroom dealings. Or maybe they were told that the Arabs would burn the building down if the jews were to succeed. Probably both.

[benjipwns]

Clearly you don't know about the Tory Power Stance

for anyone who hasn't, listen to our Bro and totally look this up, it's apparently an actual deliberate thing, they got it from some body language seminar bullshit snake oil salesman, even though every other expert quoted in the media about it says it's horseshit and makes you look stupid rather than "dominant"

spoiler (click to show/hide)

also i'm still not convinced george osbourne is human

[close]

[curly]

Hezbollah cleaned up in the Lebanese elections. Saudi Arabia really fucked up by pulling that stunt with Hariri.

[Nintex]

Hezbollah cleaned up in the Lebanese elections. Saudi Arabia really fucked up by pulling that stunt with Hariri.

Wait those fuckers actually vote literal terrorists into power. 

Move over Trump and Brexit 

[Atramental]

One person's terrorist is another person's freedom fighter. 

[VomKriege]

https://www.acast.com/warcollege/northkorea-slonggame

A good podcast with an academic based in Busan who helps understand some of the South Korean politics who most of us do not fathom and operate under very different assumptions (the academic thinks the main gradient from "left" to "right" may be the support to the USA more than European conceptions of progressives and conservatives)... It's a follow up to an episode they did one year ago and generally their NK episodes have been very good. President Moon is presented as a suave, cunning, smart politician who may be paving the road for US troops to ultimately leave.

Not all roses and pleasantries, obviously.

French commenters were similarly struck by how the recent summit was heavily leaning in symbols (more than practical, tangible measures) and that South Koreans do NOT want a Germany style reunification (they studied it closely and they know they would pay and suffer through the nose for it even in a best case scenario).

[VomKriege]

All of the Russia podcasts with academic Galeotti are excellent too.

[Nola]

https://www.acast.com/warcollege/northkorea-slonggame

A good podcast with an academic based in Busan who helps understand some of the South Korean politics who most of us do not fathom and operate under very different assumptions (the academic thinks the main gradient from "left" to "right" may be the support to the USA more than European conceptions of progressives and conservatives)... It's a follow up to an episode they did one year ago and generally their NK episodes have been very good. President Moon is presented as a suave, cunning, smart politician who may be paving the road for US troops to ultimately leave.

Not all roses and pleasantries, obviously.

French commenters were similarly struck by how the recent summit was heavily leaning in symbols (more than practical, tangible measures) and that South Koreans do NOT want a Germany style reunification (they studied it closely and they know they would pay and suffer through the nose for it even in a best case scenario).

I'd add this Lawfare podcast as a really solid compliment to the War College one:
https://lawfareblog.com/lawfare-podcast-mira-rapp-hooper-and-steph-haggard-preview-north-korea-summit

All three guests end up coming to fairly similar conclusions about the prospects of the summit and where they have some major concerns. Mira Rapp-Hooper and Steph Haggard both have some really interesting perspectives looking at this primarily from a US diplomatic perspective, though also showing a solid foundation of understanding about the region and US geopolitics within it. I think hearing all of them definitely gave me a number of really well-rounded set of insights into this that I didn't have coming into this.

[Raist]

https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/13/17349910/uk-newsstands-porn-pass-age-verification-digital-economy-act-2017


 

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/995783323770376193

So uh, are the polls a little off again?

This is the guy who was leading the insurgency against US troops during the Iraqi occupation. I believe it was Mattis who had to invade half a city to defeat most of his 'Sadr army'.
He's no longer aligned with Iran but in bed with the Iraqi commies.

This is very bad.

[Mandark]

This is the guy who was leading the insurgency against US troops during the Iraqi occupation. I believe it was Mattis who had to invade half a city to defeat most of his 'Sadr army'.
He's no longer aligned with Iran but in bed with the Iraqi commies.

You getting your info from Bush-era DoD press releases?

[Mandark]

Just a reminder that when the US invaded the people in charge thought they could install Ahmed Chalabi and that the new regime would be a staunch US ally and recognize Israel.

[Brehvolution]

We would be greeted as liberators and be in and out in 2 weeks.

MissionAccomplished.jpg

[curly]

the guy who threw his shoes at Bush got elected to the Iraqi parliament as part of Muqtada al-Sadr's coalition

If he actually hit W he would probably be prime minister now

[Mandark]

The best part of it was American media explaining how it was an insulting gesture because the feet are considered a dirty body part by Arab Muslims.

Sure, there could've been a bit of extra cultural weight there. But I think we all got the gist of what that dude was trying to express.

[Nintex]

Bush dodged that shoe like a pro

That was some Neo Matrix shit 

[Raist]

Bush dodged that shoe like a pro

That was some Neo Matrix shit 

What a legend.

[Nintex]

How long before Frau Merkel sends in the troops lol 
https://twitter.com/fborello1/status/996465386362163201

[Skullfuckers Anonymous]

International Relations in 2018:

[kingv]

Clearly you don't know about the Tory Power Stance

for anyone who hasn't, listen to our Bro and totally look this up, it's apparently an actual deliberate thing, they got it from some body language seminar bullshit snake oil salesman, even though every other expert quoted in the media about it says it's horseshit and makes you look stupid rather than "dominant"

spoiler (click to show/hide)

also i'm still not convinced george osbourne is human

[close]

That consultant watched a shit ton of He-Man as a kid and then basically just told the Torres to adopt the “I have the power!!! “ stance.

They forgot the swords though.

[Nintex]

International Relations in 2018:

(Image removed from quote.)

You could say international relations got
T R U M P E D 

[etiolate]

HEY I THINK MARX'S COMMUNIST MANIFESTO AND ITS IDEAS THAT FUCKED OVER FARMERS AND THE UKRAIN AND ANY POLITICAL DISSENDENTS MAY HAVE LEAD TO THE DEATH OF MILLIONS

curly and Mandark: NO WAY! EVERYONE HATES YOU! YOU DUMMY!

BUT HE SAID NATIONAL IDENTITY AND PROPERTY WERE THE BAD STUFF!

curly and Mandark: That's not really what he meant! He did propose national healthcare too!

GOLLY GEE, SO THERE IS NOTHING THE COMMUNSIT MANIFEST THAT RELATES TO ITS SUGGESTIONS ON POLICY THAT MURDERED PEOPLE?

curly ad Mandark: No! You silly EVIL PERSON! Just because one person said that Nationality and property are evil, doesn't mean Ukranians eating their own harvest shouldn't be starved and killed!

[jorma]

yup, that's exactly what happened 

[Rufus]

Look, you just don't understand the conversation.

[Kara]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/20/spain-podemos-leader-pablo-iglesias-no-confidence-vote-anti-austerity-principles-house-purchase

The kids are all right.

[Momo]

good to see roberto baggio landed on his feet

[benjipwns]

Nicolas Maduro won a resounding mandate from the Venezuelan people though neoliberal imperialist groups that likely have ties to the American Military Corporate Empire are claiming that turnout was only 17%. True free social democratic nations like Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua and Russia have endorsed the election as completely fair and free despite massive US, UN and EU pressure to spread lies and likely secret movements to declare war and invade.

Unbiased analysis that pro-war CNN don't want you to see:

We salute brother president Maduro on his candidacy for a democratic and constitutional reelection in Venezuela. We are certain that with truth and the support of the Venezuelan people, brother Maduro has a certain victory over Trump’s interventionism and his agents Almagro and Tuto Quiroga.

I bet Nola, stalker beaks and the other soft liberal pansies are crying and can't believe that people would actually want to run their own government instead of be blindly led by corporate media propaganda.

[team filler]

stalker beaks

[VomKriege]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/20/spain-podemos-leader-pablo-iglesias-no-confidence-vote-anti-austerity-principles-house-purchase

The kids are all right.

*Picture of dead children*

[Kara]

I know you're a communist now benji but calling Cuba social democratic wouldn't even fly in Hoxhaist circles.

[Nintex]

Nicolas Maduro won a resounding mandate from the Venezuelan people though neoliberal imperialist groups that likely have ties to the American Military Corporate Empire are claiming that turnout was only 17%. True free social democratic nations like Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua and Russia have endorsed the election as completely fair and free despite massive US, UN and EU pressure to spread lies and likely secret movements to declare war and invade.

Unbiased analysis that pro-war CNN don't want you to see:

We salute brother president Maduro on his candidacy for a democratic and constitutional reelection in Venezuela. We are certain that with truth and the support of the Venezuelan people, brother Maduro has a certain victory over Trump’s interventionism and his agents Almagro and Tuto Quiroga.

I bet Nola, stalker beaks and the other soft liberal pansies are crying and can't believe that people would actually want to run their own government instead of be blindly led by corporate media propaganda.

Wow the god emperor already has agents everywhere.

[benjipwns]

I know you're a communist now benji but calling Cuba social democratic wouldn't even fly in Hoxhaist circles.

So you trust Miguel not to roll back the victorious revolution as part of a neoliberal entryist scheme?

[benjipwns]

Hezbollah cleaned up in the Lebanese elections. Saudi Arabia really fucked up by pulling that stunt with Hariri.

Wait those fuckers actually vote literal terrorists into power. 

Move over Trump and Brexit 

https://twitter.com/AP/status/995783323770376193

So uh, are the polls a little off again?

This is the guy who was leading the insurgency against US troops during the Iraqi occupation. I believe it was Mattis who had to invade half a city to defeat most of his 'Sadr army'.
He's no longer aligned with Iran but in bed with the Iraqi commies.

This is very bad.

For the record, with the counting finished, Hezbollah themselves wound up with about 10% of the parliamentary seats in Lebanon. They won the popular vote, but that 16% only led to 13 seats, one more than they already had. The total alliance bloc got 40 seats. The Christian-associated alliances got 44 between the two of them.

In Iraq, al-Sadr's group got 54 which is ten more than the main Kurdish parties in the 329 seat legislature. The Pro-Iran but Anti-Sadr party got 47 seats. The "moderate" parties still dominate the parliament especially as we can assume that any two of the Shias, Kurds and Sunnis will all back the "moderates" versus the other two. al-Sadr already had come in second in 2014 but al-Maliki's coalition breaking up into new parties, along with his broadening the tent (I mean, they elected an atheist Communist woman as part of the coalition) helped him slide up to first place.

The most important thing from these two elections is that in Lebanon someone registered and ran the party "You Stink" but it only got 328 votes. r.i.p. Lebanese democracy :'(

[benjipwns]

In an upcoming election recap, we have Ireland voting to repeal the "right to life" on Friday, Columbia's first round for President on Sunday, and June 3rd will be a Slovenian parliamentary election. And I'm mentioning the last one for one reason, they held a debate with representatives from twenty parties and it looked like this:



They needed so many podiums that the Ontario election debate apparently had to do without:

[team filler]

are the torries still standing weird?

[Kara]

I know you're a communist now benji but calling Cuba social democratic wouldn't even fly in Hoxhaist circles.

So you trust Miguel not to roll back the victorious revolution as part of a neoliberal entryist scheme?

[Corporal]

So, did anyone watch the farce where a lizardman wearing a Zuckerberg shaped synthskin vomited useless words at politicians in the EU, a few hours ago? Best part was where he was all like "Okay kiddos time's up, I'm running low on batteries" and most of the MEPs thought he was joking.... except for Farage, who knew what was going to happen and promptly got up and left.

You didn't? Well, in that case: Good on you. was a waste of time, as expected. There were a bunch of interesting questions, but apparently the MEPs bent over backwards to get Zuckerberg on that livestream, leading to a humiliating non-event that had them talk for 2/3rds of the time and Zuckerberg slither away in his distinct Zuckerbergian way.



...He should seriously apply for the role of Data in the next Star Trek movie/series. He's got the look down. Probably won't even need to use weird contact lenses.

[Crash Dummy]

he stuck around for selfies with the meps tho

[benjipwns]

There are only two things I can't stand in this world: Centrists, and the Dutch.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/23/opinion/international-world/centrists-democracy.html

[Kara]

There are only two things I can't stand in this world: Centrists, and the Dutch.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/23/opinion/international-world/centrists-democracy.html

[Kara]

Abortion ban repeal is going to pass by a lot in Ireland.

[curly]

Italy just formed a new government, composed of two populist parties: the right-wing Northern League and the more-difficult-to-categorize Five Star Movement. They have quite different platforms and bases of support, but both are critics of the EU. The new finance minister has called the Euro "a straightjacket produced in Germany" and said the Germans still hold onto the desire for European supremacy from the days of the Nazis. This rhetoric alongside plans to cut taxes and boost social spending has Eurozone officials rattled.

Didn't curly post one like that too, where the centrist one was "Everything is rent-seeking, except rent-seeking, which is fine"? That was a good one as well

I've seen three or four variations on that meme

[Corporal]

Man, Italy once again betraying Germany and fucking everything up. 
No but seriously, this is major trouble in the making. Even if it accounts to nothing in the long term, markets are already plenty spooked, so the damage has been done. 

Here in good old Germoney, we have further issues with our army. The numbers are already hilariously bad (only 4 Eurofighters are actually ready to sortie, etc), but now some sleuthing by the gubbermint has unveiled that the military has a very broad definition of what constitutes a "usable" machine. For example, missile ships that have no ammo, tanks stripped down to training loadout, 8 minesweeper ships but only 6 available crews - yet all those cases show up as "ready for deployment" in the statistics. Good grief. 

Also, what's up with Brazil. Telling the military to do away with protesters and their trucks, if necessary by violent means... cripes. While the protesters themselves seem hellbent on deadlocking the country. Sounds like a hop and skip away from civil war. I mean, yes, it's South America, so it's probably just another Saturday for them, but still.

[Corporal]

Meanwhile Turkey continues to crash and burn. There's a sizable Turkish population in Germany, so seeing the state the country is in (and the trajectory, the worst is yet to come)... 

I mean, Erdogan is now groveling in front of his subjects and begging them to buy Lira while spouting conspiracy theories. How long until he swears brotherhood with Venezuela and introduces branded bitcoins or starts a war against the Kurds or whatever. So depressing.

[curly]

Italy just formed a new government, composed of two populist parties: the right-wing Northern League and the more-difficult-to-categorize Five Star Movement. They have quite different platforms and bases of support, but both are critics of the EU. The new finance minister has called the Euro "a straightjacket produced in Germany" and said the Germans still hold onto the desire for European supremacy from the days of the Nazis. This rhetoric alongside plans to cut taxes and boost social spending has Eurozone officials rattled.

Well that didn't last long

The compromise prime minister the League and Five Star Movement agreed on has given up on forming a government. I guess that means they try to find somebody else or new elections? Italy

[Nintex]

Italy just formed a new government, composed of two populist parties: the right-wing Northern League and the more-difficult-to-categorize Five Star Movement. They have quite different platforms and bases of support, but both are critics of the EU. The new finance minister has called the Euro "a straightjacket produced in Germany" and said the Germans still hold onto the desire for European supremacy from the days of the Nazis. This rhetoric alongside plans to cut taxes and boost social spending has Eurozone officials rattled.

Well that didn't last long

The compromise prime minister the League and Five Star Movement agreed on has given up on forming a government. I guess that means they try to find somebody else or new elections? Italy

I wonder who they can find that has the experience of being prime minister and that made this seemingly impossible deal between the two parties happen.

Oh wait. We know who. 

[Nintex]

No, Berlusconi is barred from public office.

The ban was scrapped in May
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44092700

5 stars probably won't go with it but if they just want to fuck with Europe for a few months well...

[Nintex]

Putin, Trump, Berlusconi, Johnson

Please make it happen just to see Merkel's face when they meet for talks 

[curly]

Berlusconi's party isn't in the proposed coalition. Now if they hold new elections, I guess there's a chance...

[Nintex]

This thread is quite something.
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1000834362248695808

Calls for the President to be impeached
https://twitter.com/SMerler/status/1000823861745737728

Gray Connolly with the best hot take of the day
https://twitter.com/GrayConnolly/status/1000858200273440769

The president seemingly wants to put an IMF guy in charge. Much like the Mario Monti situation before.
https://twitter.com/BRyvkin/status/1000818007793422339