Author Topic: International Politics Thread - Disease and Disaster  (Read 1303299 times)

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shosta

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*in mandark's voice* Can you show us an article like that? One that says Facebook literally caused the uprising in Egypt, neglecting to mention underlying grievances. Most articles I remember said that social media was critical for organizing.
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shosta

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Just look at how easy the military disposed of Mursi without Facebook
yeah, a military can do things effectively because there is a chain of command, the notable thing about social media is the ability to organize leaderless mass movements. popular support is different from popular action.
But this fire has been smoldering all over Europe for a while.
Taking the yellow vest movement which is france specific and about taxes, and tying it to the "fire smoldering all over Europe", which I read as "anti-EU nationalism." Classic Nintex.

how are you for real?
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Nintex

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Well during the uprising stuff like this was written
https://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/19/books/review/how-an-egyptian-revolution-began-on-facebook.html

And Zuckerberg had to actually come out and say that FB wasn't responsible
https://www.jpost.com/International/Facebook-didnt-cause-Arab-Spring-says-Zuckerberg

Then years later the narrative changed:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/25/egypt-5-years-on-was-it-ever-a-social-media-revolution

Just look at how easy the military disposed of Mursi without Facebook
yeah, a military can do things effectively because there is a chain of command, the notable thing about social media is the ability to organize leaderless mass movements. popular support is different from popular action.
But this fire has been smoldering all over Europe for a while.
Taking the yellow vest movement which is france specific and about taxes, and tying it to the "fire smoldering all over Europe", which I read as "anti-EU nationalism." Classic Nintex.

how are you for real?
Well there's Yellow Vests in France, the Netherlands and Belgium but the Yellow Vests are just another extension of the London riots, Brexit, Salvini, Afd zeitgeist.

However it doesn't seem to be just the right or the left this time but fairly bipartisan. Both the far left and far right in France are rising in the polls while the center that Macron represents collapses.
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shosta

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The press mixed up the methods to organize with the cause.
Can you show us an article like that? One that says Facebook literally caused the uprising in Egypt, neglecting to mention underlying grievances.
Well during the uprising stuff like this was written
https://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/19/books/review/how-an-egyptian-revolution-began-on-facebook.html
Quote from: NYT
Technology, of course, is not a panacea. Facebook does not a revolution make. In Egypt’s case, it was simply a place for venting the outrage resulting from years of repression, economic instability and individual frustration.
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Broseidon

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for-real deep state military that had basically enforced a dictatorship upon Egypt for half a century staging a coup against the one leader who wasn't one of theirs after a couple years to put themselves more openly back in charge somehow proves a point about social media's role in helping organise protests in nintex's fevered mind
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zepblackstar

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Shit is about to go down!


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-protests-security/france-to-deploy-89000-security-personnel-ahead-of-saturday-protests-idUSKBN1O52BS?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter
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PARIS (Reuters) - French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe said 89,000 members of the security forces would be deployed nationwide on Saturday, including 8,000 in Paris, where armored vehicles will also be out on the streets.

“We are facing people who are not here to protest, but to smash and we want to have the means to not give them a free rein,” Philippe told TF1 television’s evening news program on Thursday, revising an earlier figure of 65,000 forces.

VomKriege

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https://twitter.com/BreakingNLive/status/1069340718844522496

Well there was some discussion on radio about that second clip that went viral and what the video omits is the yellow vest with a loudspeaker explaining that riot police agreed to remove helmets if the protestors accepted to disperse right afterwards. Basically they were doing their jobs and not displaying "solidarity".

If only you hadn't been fooled by the impeccable credentials of "BNL Breaking News".

Like seriously, there's no need to sensationalise the whole thing further than it is.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 02:51:28 AM by VomKriege »
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VomKriege

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Otherwise the French government has started to try to make it rain. Basically a numbers of the offending tax reforms are delayed to be dropped if no consensus is reached. They're brainstorming with companies a plan for an optional bonus plan of 1000 euros to employees (tax + charge free). Plus a number of other signals, none very successful. Macron allegedly ruled out in the last cabinet meeting to reinstate the former wealth tax he stripped down a few months back.

All the big ticket mediations fell through last week because the somewhat arbitrary chosen yellow vests leaders received death threats from within the movement if they met with the Prime Minister. Not that was any guarantee they could speak on behalf of their movement or make them stand down anyway.

700 arrests were made yesterday among students as hundreds of colleges were blocked.

A lot of football games have been rescheduled and a number of shops, museums and colleges will be closed in Paris tomorrow, mostly through the northwest quarter around the Champs.

Not sure how things will evolve into but I think the back of that Cabinet (and to some extent of Macron's mandate) is broken. A lot of big reforms or big heads will have to roll to convince people things are changing. Biggest worry is that green policies will be put back to the back burner again : one justification for the fuel tax was to desincentivise people out of diesel, which France has a recent history of being very lenient towards in order to placate working classes.

Last Saturday violence shocked people but didn't deter the diffuse sympathy for their demands, as 77% of polled citizens still think they're "justified" though 59% are "worried".
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 03:32:47 AM by VomKriege »
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Nintex

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What are the chances that Macron decides that he should resign?
I mean, the protests are more and more aimed at him personally.
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VomKriege

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What are the chances that Macron decides that he should resign?
I mean, the protests are more and more aimed at him personally.

Unlikely. Things would have to get much worse and if so there surely would be a popular counterreaction, not unlike how a massive Gaullist protest closed the 1968 events. Macron probably don't elicit the same loyalty as De Gaulle but with no credible moderate alternative he's de facto the last embodiment of liberal democracy before the far right and left and the appetite for that is not there yet.

Before going to such extremes, he can change the cabinet (though the backbench is pretty poor) or dissolve the Assembly for a snap election. But he may just keep everything in place and just go with a much neutered policy from now on.
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Nintex

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4chan has a thread on a leaked document that describes the locations, transport routes and plans of the Paris police and security forces.
What are the chances that Macron decides that he should resign?
I mean, the protests are more and more aimed at him personally.

Unlikely. Things would have to get much worse and if so there surely would be a popular counterreaction, not unlike how a massive Gaullist protest closed the 1968 events. Macron probably don't elicit the same loyalty as De Gaulle but with no credible moderate alternative he's de facto the last embodiment of liberal democracy before the far right and left and the appetite for that is not there yet.

Before going to such extremes, he can change the cabinet (though the backbench is pretty poor) or dissolve the Assembly for a snap election. But he may just keep everything in place and just go with a much neutered policy from now on.
That's the weird thing. There's no support for Macron. Even the Middle East despots manage to get some of their supporters out there in the streets to counter protest.
Maybe it helps if he shuffles the cabinet and he announces he's not up for re-election. That worked for Hollande I think.
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VomKriege

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It's not like you could show support for him in a proactive manner :yeshrug he already have thousands of dark blue subordinates to support him.
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Raist

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Having lived on both sides of the channel, the culture difference is pretty damn amusing to me.


"We're going to gut the NHS. And education. And law enforcement."

"... OK" *goes back to sipping a cuppa*



"We're going to significantly raise taxes on fuel"

*Paris burns*

Nintex

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https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1071351432757067776
 :doge

It's not like you could show support for him in a proactive manner :yeshrug he already have thousands of dark blue subordinates to support him.
There are ways like writing an op-ed in his defense and publishing it internationally in say the WSJ.
But none of that.
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VomKriege

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Ah yes the WSJ, the most efficient outreach to French middle classes...
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Nintex

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When Paul Manafort, BLM, Boogie and Bernie Sanders write your manifest.
https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1071004810214891520

Our PM decided to troll the movement on the public broadcast

https://twitter.com/HansAckerNY/status/1071099215680598017

"Nice jacket people, good quality  :teehee"

« Last Edit: December 08, 2018, 06:35:25 AM by Nintex »
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VomKriege

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Why the quotes on unofficial ? :confused
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VomKriege

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Nintex

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I think Macron wins this round. In Paris some cars went up in flames as usual but that's about it.
No further escalation despite some folks looking to stir shit up. A government that allows the public to protest and doesn't bring down the hammer but manages to keep order is hard to unseat.
The PM has called for a dialogue. I think it'll be hard for the yellow vests to again say they don't want to talk.

In other ciities protests also errupted but every camera is fixated on Paris.
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shosta

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hoping these protests get to 2006 levels
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benjipwns

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Having lived on both sides of the channel, the culture difference is pretty damn amusing to me.


"We're going to gut the NHS. And education. And law enforcement."

"... OK" *goes back to sipping a cuppa*



"We're going to significantly raise taxes on fuel"

*Paris burns*
"We're going to cut the fuel taxes"

*Paris burns*

VomKriege

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I think Macron wins this round. In Paris some cars went up in flames as usual but that's about it.
No further escalation despite some folks looking to stir shit up. A government that allows the public to protest and doesn't bring down the hammer but manages to keep order is hard to unseat.
The PM has called for a dialogue. I think it'll be hard for the yellow vests to again say they don't want to talk.

In other ciities protests also errupted but every camera is fixated on Paris.

:what

I'm not sure you get that there's no leaders, no spokesperson and no representative to "say anything" on behalf of the "movement". Every pseudo prominent yellow vest figure head get quickly threatened back into the fold by more radical elements. "Free yellow vests" were supposed to meet the Prime Minister two days ago : it happened and absolutely nothing of consequence came of it and absolutely no one talked about it yesterday.

Macron is supposed to talk tomorrow or Tuesday and he's the only one who can do anything about it. What it will take is pretty hazy and unclear because of how shapeless the movement is.

The government only won in the sense that public order didn't break down horribly, and that's after a week of lowering the bar through insane fear mongering ("some people will come to Paris to KILL this Saturday !"), hundreds of preemptive arrests, APCs and not allowing an actual mass gathering for the protest (police in Paris kept pushing back groups all around to keep it in small parcels). Police unions are basically going to the press saying that the current level of readiness cannot be prolonged too long (basically every cop was called back to duty yesterday) and that a political solution needs to be found because they're worried they can't handle a fifth week at this rate.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2018, 06:22:00 AM by VomKriege »
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VomKriege

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Paris town hall seems to think that that the material damages were bigger this week than last Saturday, though less spectacular... Shops are on lockdown all over major cities every Saturday three weeks from Christmas. Tourism, which is the biggest economic sector, may suffer.

And I mean... Macron already lost. The only question now is how much. All the new fuel taxes have, for all intents and purposes, been binned. His national and international credibility has been severely impacted. He may have to walk back on some of his major policy reforms from last two years and will have to walk on eggshells from now on.
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Nintex

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I do think that on the short term time is on his side. With the holidays coming up it will be hard to keep up the momentum of the protests.

Still it is shocking to hear the personal stories of the protestors. Some are single moms with 3 children, not able to sustain their families.
It seems that most of all people are fearful of their country and childrens' future and what it would mean for them if the current course is kept.
Macron should try to appeal to the moderates with programs to lift people out of poverty and aid the middle classes.

However then Brussels will come knocking asking him to keep his spending in check.  :doge
In the mean time the Belgium government has pretty much collapsed over the Marrakesh pact.
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VomKriege

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https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2018/12/priyanka-chopra-nick-jonas/577504/

Wasn't aware of the wedding but I found the article interesting.
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kingv

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I do think that on the short term time is on his side. With the holidays coming up it will be hard to keep up the momentum of the protests.

Still it is shocking to hear the personal stories of the protestors. Some are single moms with 3 children, not able to sustain their families.
It seems that most of all people are fearful of their country and childrens' future and what it would mean for them if the current course is kept.
Macron should try to appeal to the moderates with programs to lift people out of poverty and aid the middle classes.

However then Brussels will come knocking asking him to keep his spending in check.  :doge
In the mean time the Belgium government has pretty much collapsed over the Marrakesh pact.

People seem to forget not have ever realized that Macron was always about as popular in France as Trunp is in the US. France wised up and chose him over Marine Le Pen, but his unpopularity is what allowed her to run competitively in the first place.  Very reminiscent of Trump/Hillary, in a way.

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kingv

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I had forgotten about the blue passports.

Clearly brexit must happen.

shosta

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Vom Kriege discovering Nintex :lawd
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Raist

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benjipwns

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-09/pro-russia-social-media-aims-at-macron-as-yellow-vests-rage
Quote
France opened a probe into possible Russian interference behind the country’s Yellow Vest protests, after reports that social-media accounts linked to Moscow have increasingly targeted the movement.

According to the Alliance for Securing Democracy, about 600 Twitter accounts known to promote Kremlin views have begun focusing on France, boosting their use of the hashtag #giletsjaunes, the French name for the Yellow Vest movement. French security services are looking at the situation, Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said Sunday in a radio interview with RTL.
Quote
Much of the tweeted material comes from Russian state media outlets including the Sputnik news website, the RT television network, and Ruptly, a German-based video news agency that belongs to RT. These outlets are covering the French crisis closely; RT has said that 12 of its journalists have been injured in the protests, far more than any other news organization.

Sputnik and RT have reported in recent days that most French police no longer support Macron and are siding with the protesters. Their sources: representatives of two small police unions that together won less than 4 percent of votes in nationwide union elections this month. Sputnik and RT also have shown a video – widely shared on French social media -- of police in the southwestern town of Pau removing their helmets in what was described as a sign of solidarity with protesters. Local police and journalists on the scene said the description was untrue. They said some officers had briefly removed their helmets to talk with protesters before putting them back on.
:putin

VomKriege

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Macron will broadcast tonight but if we're to believe ministers there will be no increase in the minimum wage ("it destroys jobs" ahem...) which is the major thing that could be decided immediately and qualify as "concrete" to help with the cost of life. They're still working on an exceptional bonus, various subsidies at companies level (like covering more transport costs) and further detaxing overtime.

Oh well...
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Madrun Badrun

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Cerveza mas fina

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May should quit and let these hardcore brexiters clean up their own shit

Nintex

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What happened to : "This is the best deal, there's this deal or no deal"

Ah well, now the tories have some time to put together a Leadership Challenge  :teehee
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kingv

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Isn’t the EU just going to let them leave with no deal if they don’t take this one? What’s the EU incentive to negotiate?

I suspect they might accept a request to withdraw their notification of push came to shove, but they don’t have a ton of reason to do much more than that.

Nintex

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« Last Edit: December 10, 2018, 01:40:02 PM by Nintex »
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Nintex

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Our useless PM is quicly becoming the kingmaker in Europe
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1072214310355697664
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VomKriege

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Macron spoke and it's pretty meager :

The salary of "people at the minimum wage" will increase 100 euros (before tax) starting January 2019. The phrasing is ambiguous but it's apparently not a rise in the minimum wage itself (it will not cost a thing to companies he said) but something more indirect, probably piling up all the supposed increases that were planned over the complete mandate.

The potential bonus I mentioned upthread for the end of year.

Overtime hours will be tax free and social contributions free. Sarkozy made it so back then, Hollande scrapped it.

The planned CSG tax hike for 2019 on pensions will be withheld (on pensions below 2000e).

That's it folks. Otherwise a lot of fluff ("we're in a state of social and economic emergency"  :ussrcry ) and trying to look more humble.

:yeshrug
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Raist

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I've seen that vid ages ago. Can't remember what the actual context was.


Nintex

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Wow Mandark spreading fake Russian news again.

Yikes
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Joe Molotov

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France, Germany, or a Buffalo Bills tailgate party?
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Nintex

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https://twitter.com/danwnews/status/1072217256619360257

Excuse me sir who bungled it he first time.... what should we do now?  :lol
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Nintex

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https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1072250448101498880

https://twitter.com/MonarchyUK/status/1072234893227237376

Emergency debate tommorow. But the house of commons almost lost its power and legitimacy as an MP tried to remove the ceremonial Mace.

(which apparently gives this government body its authority)  :lol


This whole system is just incredible
Quote
The remaining two days of a planned five-day debate on May’s proposals will be postponed, along with votes on her agreement with Brussels, to a date yet to be fixed.

This was done by a parliamentary procedure which does not require approval from MPs - despite Speaker John Bercow saying it would be “discourteous” to do so. In fact, all it required is a government enforcer - known as the whip - to shout “tomorrow”.
:lol
« Last Edit: December 10, 2018, 06:26:03 PM by Nintex »
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Madrun Badrun

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Great Rumbler

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Virgin Congress vs. Chad Parliament
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benjipwns

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But the house of commons almost lost its power and legitimacy as an MP tried to remove the ceremonial Mace.

(which apparently gives this government body its authority)  :lol
Most all British descended legislatures have a mace that signifies the literal earthly authority. Canada, Australia, Ireland, etc. and even an escapee like the United States (and thus the Philippines) has a version of it. (For the House, the power of the Senate is from the States.)

Picking up the mace has been a relatively common protest in the UK House of Commons. Funny enough the mace has actually been a symbolic thing far far longer than it was a literal thing the King or Speaker or whoever used. IIRC, the oldest use of the mace was post-Magna Carta, but less than a century or so later it was already purely symbolic. I believe that's when it started growing in size and becoming silly looking, the U.S. House's is even crazier and stands in a block of marble rather than lying on a table.

France at one time also used a mace, but since its state has not been historically continued, it was dropped at some point. As most of the mainland legislatures take after French and German customs rather than British and many of the oldest are just entering their second century, such old timey traditions are limited. The States-General, for example, was reconstructed entirely post both the American and French Revolutions, not to mention the refounding of the Kingdom. The British Parliament's traditions predate that by five hundred years or so. Which is one reason it and its spin-offs have so many "outdated" things like voting by going through doors or physically standing in a location.

This whole system is just incredible
Quote
The remaining two days of a planned five-day debate on May’s proposals will be postponed, along with votes on her agreement with Brussels, to a date yet to be fixed.

This was done by a parliamentary procedure which does not require approval from MPs - despite Speaker John Bercow saying it would be “discourteous” to do so. In fact, all it required is a government enforcer - known as the whip - to shout “tomorrow”.
:lol
The British government has absolute power and authority within Parliament until it loses the confidence of the House. Procedure is almost entirely within its purview of powers if it chooses (it usually defers to the Speaker) but on scheduling matters like this the assumption of the confidence of the House means that it is presumed that a vote would come out the same as the government's order.

To use Congress again, the Speaker and Majority Leader in the House and Senate have equally comparable power to dismiss things like that in terms of controlling the schedule. Theoretically, yes, the remainder of the body could challenge, but it probably would mean the resignation of the Speaker/Leader as they clearly no longer control their caucus let alone the body. In the UK the same thing would signify loss of confidence and thus the collapse of the government.

Where there's a difference is in the power of the whip, in most other legislatures it is presumed to vote as your party whip demands unless stated otherwise, in the U.S. Congress, especially the Senate, this has less tradition (and they have less power) so "conscience votes" are literally all the votes. Generally, Republicans and Democrats will still vote procedure matters with party leadership, if only to vote against the bill itself. (ex: John Kerry's "I actually did vote for the $87 billion, before I voted against it.")

benjipwns

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Re: going through doors, this can still be called for in most German legislatures; outside a German Landtag:


I assume "Ja" gets entered a lot more based on the discoloration on the other two doors.

Nintex

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https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1072549842721886208
I believe 48 letters are needed to call for a leadership challenge.
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VomKriege

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Macron secured with banks that no banking fees will increase next year.

The needle has moved a bit but almost half the sample in the most recent poll believe the movement should carry forward.
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Dickie Dee

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Why do you guys feels Native Americans and Indigenous people in general are ignored in social justice crusades?

Data shows Native American men are killed by police more often than even African American men, but its never discussed.

http://www.cjcj.org/news/8113

Or the fact that native women go missing in Canada at alarming rates and... no one outside their communities do anything about it?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/indigenous-missing-women-police-data-1.4449073

Just curious. I've always wondered it myself but never really put any effort in to understanding it. Been looking in to getting some books that talk about it.

Missing native women is very much big issue in Canada. Why would you say it isn't?
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Nintex

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This chart is really great to catch up on Brexit

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1072618529986412544
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BIONIC

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Re: going through doors, this can still be called for in most German legislatures; outside a German Landtag:
(Image removed from quote.)

I assume "Ja" gets entered a lot more based on the discoloration on the other two doors.

What does Ja Rule think of the German immigration crisis?
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Raist

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Hasn't happened yet, that's a live feed.

Raist

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Get on with it
Take back control
Will of the people

Blablabla