Author Topic: International Politics Thread - Disease and Disaster  (Read 1302090 times)

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shosta

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That graph is annoying because HDI should be the independent variable, not %votes for Bolsonaro.

 ::)

anyway another way to interpret this is that Bolsonaro is primarily an urban phenomenon.
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Tiops

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This also happens because he lost in the Northeast, that is by far the poorest region in Brazil. Bolsonaro won by a mile in every center/southern State, which are in way better conditions. So it's expected.

Situation improved in the Northeast during Lula's years, and the Worker's party have a high dominance there, because even though the situation is absolutely terrible there, it's less terrible than it was on the 90s. If Bolsonaro manage to do a good job there during his government, the left is absolutely fucked here, because at the moment, they managed to convince everyone there that PT is the only party that will do everything good for them. I mean, during Lula and Dilma years, they had TV commercials that displayed food being removed from the plates of poor homes, saying in threatening voices that they would return to hunger if PT lost.

« Last Edit: October 29, 2018, 02:23:56 PM by Tiops »

Broseidon

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The interests of international businesses and those of the people of [LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRY] are aligned
bent

Nintex

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Yeah politics in general in Brazil seemed fucked up with the corruption, jailed presidents and a country on the brink of becoming the next Venezuela.

If anything Bolsonaro might 'wake up' the left that they need to change course and can't coast to victory automatically. As for Bolsonaro. When you dig into the details you figure out that his most controversial statements were made on a television show that specifically had him on to say those controversial things. Overall he seems more 'bark' than 'bite' and on some points he already backtracked during the campaign. There's also lawmakers and such who have to enact any of his policies to begin with.
Unlike what the '#resistance' thinks dictatorships don't happen overnight. They're planned and they're usually backed by business interests and/or the military.
Hitler wasn't elected he was appointed. A fact that seems to be overlooked everytime a politician raises his or her voice.

It doesn't seem like a President who got in with 55% of the vote is a prime candidate to launch a dictatorship. On the long term that could be a risk if checks and balances on power fail.
But let's be real here. The media acts as if Steve Bannon has a copy machine in his basement and churns out 'The German Trump', 'The Tropic Trump', 'The Japanese Trump' or wherever elections are held.
Bolsonaro is nothing like Trump. He uses hand gestures and he says controversial things. That's about it in terms of things they have in common. Bolsonaro is pretty much a carreer politician.
He didn't 'hijack' an established party as his vessel to avenge a roast at a dinner party.

The media also doesn't seem to realize that calling Bolsonaro 'The Trump of the Tropics' makes him more likely to succeed electorally. Especially countries with deep economic problems (Italy, Brazil etc.) look at Trump as if he's created an economic miracle and wish the same for their own countries. Because that's how Trump portrays his victories and that's pretty much the only thing the media backs him on. Also compared to HITLER or a Military dictatorship Trump doesn't seem that 'scary' as a leader of your country.
So the media kinda creates this ridiculous narrative that this Trump-like guy will launch a military dictatorship.

In reailty though the media and liberals have a terrible 'radar' to detect dictators.
People they backed that turned out to have dictatorial ambitions include:
- Vladimir Putin (who the media and liberals portrayed as a 'boring bureaucrat' who in the revolving door of Russian Prime Ministers would be gone within a year)
- Xi Jinping (again a boring loyal party member who was picked for the job because he wouldn't threaten those in power and didn't have any grand ambitions)
- Recep Tajip Erdogan (who as 'liberal' mayor of Instanbul showed that he preferred markets over religion)
- Kim Jun Un (I'm not even kidding. The media predicted that Un was a liberal and would dismantle the dictatorship because he had studied abroad)
- Muhammed Morsi (the 'moderate' leader of the Muslim Brotherhood who filled a stadium to declare war on Israel and Syria on the eve before he was ousted by the military and had started to purge his political opponents)

And they failed to see it coming with all of them. :lol
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Mandark

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- Kim Jun Un (I'm not even kidding. The media predicted that Un was a liberal and would dismantle the dictatorship because he had studied abroad)

You're lying again.

Also, do you really want to talk about who was making dumbass predictions about the DPRK? Really?
« Last Edit: October 29, 2018, 04:09:36 PM by Mandark »

Nintex

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- Kim Jun Un (I'm not even kidding. The media predicted that Un was a liberal and would dismantle the dictatorship because he had studied abroad)

You're lying again.

Also, do you really want to talk about who was making dumbass predictions about the DPRK? ReallY?
Nope, the media did extensive coverage about his time in Switzerland.
Calling Kim a moderating force and worrying that the miilitary would overthrow the 'weak' new leader who was well educated and played PlayStation games during college.
Kim had to be protected from the countries hardliners such as his uncle. Who the 'moderate' allegedly strapped to a pole and shot to pieces with an anti-aircraft gun.
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Mandark

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- Kim Jun Un (I'm not even kidding. The media predicted that Un was a liberal and would dismantle the dictatorship because he had studied abroad)

That's a lie there buddy.

Assimilate

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- Kim Jun Un (I'm not even kidding. The media predicted that Un was a liberal and would dismantle the dictatorship because he had studied abroad)

That's a lie there buddy.
That's actually not a lie. It's a stretch, but not a blatant lie. There were media outlets trying to warm up to the guy, saying he could potentially dismantle the dictatorship and he still can so who knows.

https://twitter.com/Estadao/status/1056860697160609792

"Bolsonaro wins in 97% of the richest cities and Haddad in 98% of the poor"


I wonder if you think the "poor" in Brazil is the same as the poor in the United States. They are A LOT poorer. Also a lot more violent, a lot more ignorant, a lot more uneducated, it just keeps going from there.

And when it says 97% of the richest cities.... how rich do you think they are talking? There's nothing here that can compare to a Manhattan, or San Fran, not even fucking close. One of the richest cities here is Leblon and you'd think it was upper middle class at most.


Mandark

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nah it's a lie

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It being widespread was never the point, friendo. I ask again, is disrupting classes and confiscating material on the history of fascism (presuambly handed out during those classes), just honky dory?

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stop it for fuck sakes. until there is military marching on the streets arresting people for innocent protest move on bro. seriously, move the fuck on. find something else to hot take about.
"Shut up until it's too late." :rofl

First they came for...

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- Kim Jun Un (I'm not even kidding. The media predicted that Un was a liberal and would dismantle the dictatorship because he had studied abroad)

That's a lie there buddy.
That's actually not a lie. It's a stretch, but not a blatant lie. There were media outlets trying to warm up to the guy, saying he could potentially dismantle the dictatorship and he still can so who knows.

Sure he went all in developing ICBMs to give up all his power and create a stable democracy  :doge

curly

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nintex why are you trying to pass off obvious lies at a place where everyone (including you) knows you're full of shit? do you just enjoy roleplaying as a fash propagandist as a distraction from your dull, meaningless Dutch existence?

shosta

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When I found out he was an upper level manager, I was completely unsurprised.
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Nintex

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I know the entire planet is hit by amnesia. But when Kim Jun Il died speculation was rife that this new young leader would reform the country just because he was young and had studied abroad or that he would be a puppet for the military.
None had predicted he would kill his own family members to assert control.

And even if you debate me on Kim, fine. But what about the other 5 that they didn't see coming like the boring Russian bureaucrat and Erdogan?

The point still stands, the media is terrible in spotting those that aspire to dictatorial power.
Or am I lying too that Vladimir Putin was considered a boring bureaucrat not meant to last for politics.
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shosta

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Predicting is hard, I think you have some experience with that, yourself, as Mandark points out.
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curly

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Notice the change from "a liberal who would dismantle the dictatorship" to just a general reformer

Mandark

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Some chutzpah to whinge about "amnesia" while retconning a post from two hours ago.

Nintex

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🤴

Mandark

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Also yes, you're lying about coverage of Erdogan too.

Assimilate

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why is the left eating a bag of dicks all over the world?


Nabbis

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I know the entire planet is hit by amnesia. But when Kim Jun Il died speculation was rife that this new young leader would reform the country just because he was young and had studied abroad or that he would be a puppet for the military.
None had predicted he would kill his own family members to assert control.

And even if you debate me on Kim, fine. But what about the other 5 that they didn't see coming like the boring Russian bureaucrat and Erdogan?

The point still stands, the media is terrible in spotting those that aspire to dictatorial power.
Or am I lying too that Vladimir Putin was considered a boring bureaucrat not meant to last for politics.

Putin was very different before becoming a President. I don't know if he just gave up or was in it for the long game but old Russian interviews certainly paint a different trajectory compared to what happened. Then again, the dude was KGB. I do remember that Kim stuff though, dunno if media championed him but there was some speculation.

agrajag

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Did u know

Vladimir Putin's middle name is Vladimirovich

That's because his father's name is Vladimir also. Very common occurrence in Russia.

Nintex

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Also yes, you're lying about coverage of Erdogan too.
Erdogan was seen as a reformer. Which is why the EU wanted to explore EU membership for Turkey and foreign investors poured in.
He was expected to take the country from a military state to a democratic state. He started peace negotations with the Kurds, liberalized the markets and ran on a social-democratic program with the AKP.
At one point he used the Gulen movement to purge the military only to purge the Gulen movement years later.
Over the years his rule over the country turned more authoritarian, Islamist and conservative.
 
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Rufus

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So, where does the terrible radar come in again?

Nintex

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So, where does the terrible radar come in again?
They always give those guys the benefit of the doubt.

- Putin has to look strong because that's how Russia works but deep down he is a liberal
- Erdogan needed to do this to stop the military from taking over but as soon as things have settled down he will tone down his rhetoric and start reforming again
etc. etc.
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Mandark

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When Erdogan became prime minister, media coverage heavily featured his Islamist ties (it would be dumb to assume they didn't since this was at the peak of the Bush-era War On Terror). They did not describe him as "liberal."

You realize we can look this stuff up, right?

Nintex

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When Erdogan became prime minister, media coverage heavily featured his Islamist ties (it would be dumb to assume they didn't since this was at the peak of the Bush-era War On Terror). They did not describe him as "liberal."

You realize we can look this stuff up, right?
Nope, Erdogan was the liberal reformer who was unjustly barred from politics.
For years his Islamism was promoted as a sign that an Islamic Democracy could work and was an example for the rest of the Middle East which at that point were mostly (military) dictatorships (Egypt, Syria, etc.).
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Mandark

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I'd love to read five major outlets referring to him as a "liberal."

jorma

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I'd love to read five major outlets referring to him as a "liberal."

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2004/01/29/the-importance-of-backing-erdogan

He isn't wrong about Erdogan. I'm not sure that makes the media stupid or whatever, because Turkey were going more liberal back when they were striving for EU membership.

Nintex

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I'd love to read five major outlets referring to him as a "liberal."

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2004/01/29/the-importance-of-backing-erdogan

He isn't wrong about Erdogan. I'm not sure that makes the media stupid or whatever, because Turkey were going more liberal back when they were striving for EU membership.
The same economist today:
https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1057037007061467136

Who the fuck are these people kidding.  :lol
Hungary is a shit show, Russia has always been a 'democracy' in name only, China is a communist state.
Those are facts for decades. Yet, suddenly democracy is dead.  :huh

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starting with a charismatic leader who pledges to save the people
This literally describes 99% of the politicians. I didn't know Bill Clinton turned the USA into a dictactorship smh.  :lol
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Assimilate

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not gonna lie he can be intimidating.



I'll jump ship if he loses his head

benjipwns

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It being widespread was never the point, friendo. I ask again, is disrupting classes and confiscating material on the history of fascism (presuambly handed out during those classes), just honky dory?
When I saw this the first question I had was "how many classes could this possibly be?" Especially about fascism specifically.

Not to get into the fight on whether it happened or should happen, as I think most election "silence" or "pause" type laws in better states than Brazil are myopic and silly in the first place so it wouldn't entirely surprise me. (And I do recall some instances elsewhere where these kinds of laws or election display laws were interpreted in quite draconian ways by local officials who were strongly for a party/candidate in that region/city/whatever.)

benjipwns

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I want to say there was a low tier GOP candidate in the last presidential primaries who had to be shuffled off because he came out after voting personally and some incoming voters stopped him to talk and he was like two feet within the exclusion zone. :lol

shosta

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China is a communist state.
FACT CHECK: China is a socialist state with Chinese characteristics.
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curly

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Lyin' Nintex at it again

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China defies categorisation

Mandark

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China is communist if we're talking about its human rights records, capitalist if we're talking about its economic growth.

One of those "guess what your child did at school today" situations.

curly

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China defies categorisation

Nah they're pretty clearly state capitalism

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There is a strong push from the state against some western things like idolisation of stars etc.

And yes its capitalist but the state has a final say and also does things for the greater good

benjipwns

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*runs*

Rufus

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(And I do recall some instances elsewhere where these kinds of laws or election display laws were interpreted in quite draconian ways by local officials who were strongly for a party/candidate in that region/city/whatever.)
Seems like this was one such instance.

Or, instead of my flippant nonsense:
https://soundcloud.com/watsoninstitute/making-sense-of-brazils-2018-presidential-election-1
https://soundcloud.com/watsoninstitute/making-sense-of-brazils-2018-presidential-election-part-2
(part 3 forthcoming)
https://soundcloud.com/watsoninstitute/making-sense-of-brazils-2018-presidential-election-part-3

agrajag

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Brehvolution

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What Glen, and people like Glen keep saying is that people are voting for balls and trump because they want the government to eliminate their political opposites. It's not "maybe embrace fascism" as he says, it is embracing fascism. They also never speak about how it will make their lives better with these people in charge.
©ZH

agrajag

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I think Glenn is right. I mentioned this in another thread, but I have a Brazilian buddy who lives in US. He absolutely despises Trump, yet he supported Bolsonaro. And my buddy is definitely does not belong to the white ruling class. I think people underestimate just how desperate the folks in countries like Brazil are. Those kind if people are always vulnerable for an authoritarian strongman to swoop in and take control. Plus, I have a theory that most people have an innate desire for someone to lord over them and make decisions for them.

I don't believe the voters in Brazil are a direct equivalent of Trump voters.

Mandark

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lol greenwald

Mandark

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greenwald calling for self-examination and an end to name-calling mwahahahaha

Brehvolution

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"You can't just call a racist a racist and fascist a fascist and expect them not to vote for a racist fascist!"  :doge
©ZH

Mandark

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That video is just "The western media sees Bolsonaro through the prism of Trump, but that's a big mistake... in conclusion, the underlying forces that led to Trump and the solutions to defeat him are exactly the same as with Bolsonaro. Also throw Brexit in there."

:derp

Tiops

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I think Glenn is right. I mentioned this in another thread, but I have a Brazilian buddy who lives in US. He absolutely despises Trump, yet he supported Bolsonaro. And my buddy is definitely does not belong to the white ruling class. I think people underestimate just how desperate the folks in countries like Brazil are. Those kind if people are always vulnerable for an authoritarian strongman to swoop in and take control. Plus, I have a theory that most people have an innate desire for someone to lord over them and make decisions for them.

I don't believe the voters in Brazil are a direct equivalent of Trump voters.

That's a good analysis. People are definitely desperate here, and the left likes to pretend everything is fine when they're in charge. But as said before, most of us do not want a dictator, fascism or whatever. But security issues here do need a firm stance, and that's why he won.

Nintex

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Democracies in the globalized world made a big mistake. They took away social security, jobs, healthcare and even housing. And handed it all to the banks and corporations.
What they didn't take away were voting rights. So what's an evicted, sick and/or unemployed pissed off citizen going to vote for? The guy that promises to lob a grenade into parliament.

The establishment then turns to the media that support and depend on their funding (and the business interests that support the establishment) to 'smear' this challenger, which only makes him look stronger in the eyes of the public and the establishment more desperate.

Trump was the only candidate that literally said this to African Americans on the campaign trail. "You're getting shot, your schools are bad, you're are unemployed... what the hell do you have to lose?"
In Brazil, if you're getting murdered and fucked over anyway why not take a chance with Bolsonaro? What's the worse thing that could happen to you if you already live in shitty conditions?

And the solution tot his? Well the political elite has started to target extremist media outlets and social media first. But sooner or later they will simply go for the voting rights instead.
Deny the poor and disenfranchised their votes. Perhaps tie the ability to vote to credit ratings.
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shosta

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why are you so goddamn stupid
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agrajag

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I don't think he's stupid, he is very smart. He has a humiliation fetish, and he found a way to get a steady source of verbal abuse here on The Bore without having to pay for it. I see what you're doing Nintex




Nintex

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why are you so goddamn stupid
People want their government to handle 3 things
- Economy
- Security
- Health

Most don't care about 'tone', 'foreign policy' and/or infrastructure (until it collapses).
If a party or government fails in all three sectors they lose the support of their citizens.
That's how the EU got onto the bad side of many people as well. They bungled the Euro crisis, they bungled the migration crisis and in some cases they've ravaged healthcare (Greece for example) through austerity.

You can continue to call people who see this trend that you're missing 'stupid' but that won't change the reality of the situation.
Unless the establishment and especially the left embrace that they've betrayed the working classes they won't win elections.
There's 0 reflection. It's either the Russians or the Nazi's who are to blame for problems that have simple explanations and solutions.
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shosta

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From your first post: Which governments cut social security, national healthcare services, and federal housing programs, handed them to the "corporations", and caused a populist demagogue to be elected? How do you hand jobs over to the corporations when corporations are the ones employing people anyway? Where's your polling evidence that the people who were most affected economically were the ones who voted for, say, Trump? And how do you explain the fact that it's the right wing populists who clamor for voting restriction laws, not the liberal establishment? You mentioned that Trump was the only one who offered an alternative to black voters but 88% of them voted for Hillary Clinton; how do you reconcile this?

From your second post: you said no one cares about foreign policy but at least in the United States, terrorism was the number one or two concern for conservative voters in the last presidential election. You said that the eu debt crisis was bungled but why wouldn't this translate into anti-bank pro-left sentiment?

Almost everything you said is either outright wrong or nonsense.
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Nintex

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Which governments cut social security, national healthcare services, and federal housing programs, handed them to the "corporations", and caused a populist demagogue to be elected?
Nearly all governments did post the economic crisis and some before. People were evicted from their homes by the banks, living in tent cities. Savings and pensions went up in flames while the banks got bailed out.
That left a bigger mark than the political elite dares to admit. Most democraties are in various stages of being taken over or being influenced by rightwing/populist movements.

Italy: Lega Nord and their rising star Salvini have overtaken the M5 movement in the most recent polling despite them governing together
Germany: Afd is steadily climbing in the polls, Merkel is losing support left and right
France: If it wasn't for Macron they might've had Le Pen. Macron's approval currently sits at <30%
The Netherlands: Rise of both the PVV(anti-muslim freedom party) and FvD (new rightwing movement)
Greece: Ruling political parties decimated by new populist progressive movement
Hungary: Orban won
Austria: Kurz won
UK: Brexit won
US: Trump won
Brazil: Bolsonaro won
Poland/Baltics: Nationalist movements continue to grow

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How do you hand jobs over to the corporations when corporations are the ones employing people anyway?
The corporations move those jobs abroad to low-wage countries such as China and India leaving large parts of the population unemployed.

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Where's your polling evidence that the people who were most affected economically were the ones who voted for, say, Trump?
Because he won a lot of loyal democratic states by supporting the working classes such as coal miners, small business, construction workers etc. .

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And how do you explain the fact that it's the right wing populists who clamor for voting restriction laws, not the liberal establishment?
Because they can't 'sell' it yet. It took a whiile for the alternative media to be silenced but it's slowly happening. The liberal thinking was that if more people voted they'd be more certain of a victory.
But pissed off people don't vote for liberal policies. In the Netherlands we shortly had a referendum. We held two of them which the establishment both lost and soon after they abolished this method of 'direct democracy'.
Also they tend to centralize decision making. If decisions are made by the UN or Brussels a national vote isn't that important anymore. So they use a different method in voting restrictions, one that makes the votes and voting itself meaningless.
Another example from my country. The new leader of a liberal party has said that he wants EU membership to be added to our constitution so no matter which party gets in power, they can't pull us out of the EU.

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You mentioned that Trump was the only one who offered an alternative to black voters but 88% of them voted for Hillary Clinton; how do you reconcile this?
I mentioned that episode because it was the first time that a populist made the argument: "Vote for me, you got nothing to lose losers" which they usually bring in a much more subtle way.
"Do you think your country has improved?" , "Do you think those other guys will make your lives better?" is usually the rhetoric that they use. As for black voters, we'll see where they stand at the end of Trump's presidency.
They didn't turn out for Hillary like they did for Obama either.

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Almost everything you said is either outright wrong or nonsense.
This is false. What I'm saying is also being said more or less by the likes of Mark Blythe and Ian Bremmer. There's a correlation between the policies enacted by the democracies during the economic crisis (mainly austerity) and their current woes at the hands of populists.
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Cerveza mas fina

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If the left in the EU has failed in anything it is in making people understand that in a free market capitalist world the EU is the best bet to stop bleeding wealth to who knows where and keep it somehow local.

You cant keep the wealth in western europe forever in an open economy.

It just slows the decline though.

Mandark

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As for black voters, we'll see where they stand at the end of Trump's presidency.

Amazing.

Dickie Dee

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Kanye tho
___

agrajag

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Instead of "look at my African American" he'll be using plural

#blexit