International Politics Thread - Disease and Disaster

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/spaikin/status/1058526862979133440

Yikes

[Mandark]

https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1058757797234520064


This was corrected a full day before your post. Keep up!

[El Babua]

Honestly wouldn't be surprised either way considering David Frum could probably convince me to kill myself by arguing the opposite.

[Broseidon]

Qassem Suleimani will take power and de-Islamize

 

[kingv]

Imagine believing that Bannon (or anybody really) is so persuasive that he could convince 0% of the viewing audience to completely change their political preferences by talking to Bushs speechwriter for an hour and thinking this is actually plausible.

[Nintex]

Imagine believing that Bannon (or anybody really) is so persuasive that he could convince 0% of the viewing audience to completely change their political preferences by talking to Bushs speechwriter for an hour and thinking this is actually plausible.

Remember that the audience volunteered to listen to Steve Bannon and David Frum and not forced at gunpoint.

[kingv]

People in the US do not watch debates because they’re open to both sides. Primarily they watch them to see their preferred candidate dunk on the other guy.

[benjipwns]

https://www.afp.com/en/news/15/macron-urges-european-army-defend-against-russia-us-doc-1al83s2

"We have to protect ourselves with respect to China, Russia and even the United States of America," Macron told Europe 1 radio.

"When I see President Trump announcing that he's quitting a major disarmament treaty which was formed after the 1980s euro-missile crisis that hit Europe, who is the main victim? Europe and its security," he said.

"We will not protect the Europeans unless we decide to have a true European army," he said in the interview, recorded Monday night in Verdun, northeast France, as Macron tours the former Western Front during week-long World War I centenary commemorations.

Faced with "a Russia which is at our borders and has shown that it can be a threat", Macron argued: "We need a Europe which defends itself better alone, without just depending on the United States, in a more sovereign manner."

"Peace in Europe is precarious," Macron told Europe 1.

"We have been hit by intrusion attempts in cyber-space and multiple interventions in our democracies," he said in an apparent reference to Russia.

He also warned of "authoritarian powers which are reemerging and rearming within the confines in Europe".

Macron has been warning of rising nationalism as he prepares to host dozens of world leaders, including Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, on Sunday to mark 100 years since the World War I armistice.

He repeated his warning Tuesday that he was struck by similarities between the world today and the financial crisis and "nationalism playing on people's fears" of the 1930s.

[Nintex]

When the boss drops by the office

https://twitter.com/CapaMagMoments/status/1061579417338740736

[Nintex]

Looks like Israel is softening up Gaza for an invasion this time.

- TV station hit
- Hamas HQ's hit
- Parliament notified of incoming strikes
- Large number of tanks seen moving towards border

They've been going at it back and forth. From Gaza 400 rockets were fired onto Israel.
Hamas just announced they will start firing more rockets much further into Israel.

[Raist]

Good news. May got her Brexit draft agreement with the EU!

Bad news, it's a shit show as everyone is mad as fuck

[Nintex]

The guy that negotiated it resigned as did 4 other members of her cabinet.
Her own former chief of staff called the deal 'suicide'.

Now she's in Parliament.
- There is no majority for her deal
- She doesn't want to call off the Brexit
- They all think it's very irresponsible to go with a 'no deal' brexit


- Now Rees Mogg is calling for a vote of no confidence. Which is basically the turn the debate has taken. Will May still be PM at the end of the day?

 

[kingv]

I don’t understand the politics of Brexit at all. It’s clearly a bad idea that seems to have gotten less popular over time, and there’s a ton of questions about the original vote and campaign becauand yet the UK government seems hellbent on going through with it for some inexplicable reason.

[Nintex]

I don’t understand the politics of Brexit at all. It’s clearly a bad idea that seems to have gotten less popular over time, and there’s a ton of questions about the original vote and campaign becauand yet the UK government seems hellbent on going through with it for some inexplicable reason.

It basically comes down to this:

- A majority of the people voted to leave the EU
- After dragging her feet May has finally negotiated a deal that is worse than staying in the EU, this means
> Brexiteers are against (they don't want to pay the 39 billion in financial settlements for starters)
> Remainers are against (they want a new referendum)
> Labour is against (because they're not going to help her wiggle out of this one)

May does not seem to have the votes to get this deal through the House of Commons so now there's a plot set in motion to oust her as PM with a vote of no confidence which she is likely to lose.
If May's out the tories will have a new leadership challenge, which equals them selecting a new PM.

Which could be someone like David Davies (to again try to get more favorable terms from the Europeans and/or postpone or revoke Brexit), Rees Mogg himself (as he called for the vote) and/or Boris Johnson (who would crash out of the EU, give them the finger and try to deal with the US or other countries).

However, the EU on their part has already said that the UK can't revoke article 50 and thus Brexit has to go ahead no matter what.
The smart money was actually betting on May dragging her feet so a deal wouldn't happen and she and former Brexit Secretary Davies would revoke article 50.
However, the UK will have to start the entire process of becoming a new EU member all over again.

May's snap election was also designed for prevent something like this from happening. She would increase her support and vote tally so she'd be able to get 'any' deal passed through the house of commons easier.
That all backfired because she actually lost support and also relies on a coalition partner which is also against the deal.

So a new referendum wouldn't work because the EU won't take the UK back. And this Brexit deal won't work because the EU has demanded political suicide of May.

Elections you ask?
Well, no sane opposition party would call for elections without assurances from Brussels. So this hot potato remains in Tory hands unless their new leader calls for elections to shore up support but that is unlikely given how that backfired on May.

However, the UK will leave the EU by the end of March. And as it stands now, likely without any sort of deal or transition.

[kingv]

Why wouldn’t the EU just say “hey do a new referendum and we’ll call it good”?

It’s madness. They hold the cards, but brexit is going to be bad for the entire eu and not just the UK. You eurotrash  are a vindictive lot.

[Nintex]

And you guys say I don't understand politics

https://twitter.com/C4Ciaran/status/1063070170564976640

Why wouldn’t the EU just say “hey do a new referendum and we’ll call it good”?

It’s madness. They hold the cards, but brexit is going to be bad for the entire eu and not just the UK. You eurotrash  are a vindictive lot.

Because then the Italians, Greeks etc. would also bail from the EU or play the same will they/won't they game.
The UK is getting punishment for leaving to keep the others in. And yes that will also backfire.

[kingv]

The Greeks are the one country where it makes total 100% sense for them to leave.

They’d be better off today if they’d left 5 years ago.

[jorma]

The Greeks are the one country where it makes total 100% sense for them to leave.

They’d be better off today if they’d left 5 years ago.

Lol no.

leaving the eurozone and reinstating the drachma, maybe. Leaving the EU altogether? Noway, that would be fucking insane.

[Nintex]

The Greeks are the one country where it makes total 100% sense for them to leave.

They’d be better off today if they’d left 5 years ago.

Yep but unlike the brits they didn't have strong political leadership or a strong economic position so their bluf was called.
As soon as the ATM's ran dry and the protests started the new leftwing populist government caved to EU austerity demands.

The government had asked Russia for help but the Russians were unable and unwilling to put up the money to back a new currency.
Varoufakis tried to head over to the central bank where he discovered the Greeks were denied access to their own financial systems by the ECB.
Rumors swirled among conservative MP's that German tanks would head to Athens if they did not reach an agreement that night.
It did not help that special forces and police from Germany and other EU members were already helping out with riot control of the protests.

At the 11th hour Varoufakis recruited cyber security experts (essentially hackers) to take back control of the banking system. Once they had found a way in he went to the office of the Prime Minister to ask for the final go ahead.
The new currency would be backed by gold reserves and they were ready to print at midnight. The PM however refused to give Varoufakis the green light to reintroduce their own currency and lock out the ECB from the Greek central banking systems so he resigned.

What Varoufakis didn't know at that time was that his main rival, the Dutch finance minister who was also the head of the finance group of the Eurozone members had already told his department to start drawing up plans to leave the Euro and reintroduce the Guilder 'just in case'.

Meanwhile in Brexit Land

https://twitter.com/sheryllmurray/status/1063086369990459393

Yes that is Theresa May in the profile picture.

[kingv]

The Greeks are the one country where it makes total 100% sense for them to leave.

They’d be better off today if they’d left 5 years ago.

Lol no.

leaving the eurozone and reinstating the drachma, maybe. Leaving the EU altogether? Noway, that would be fucking insane.

I meant getting rid of Euros.

I doubt the EU would let them do one without the other, however.

I’m not honestly sure how just straight leave could be worse than it currently is. They’re gdp is half what it was 10 years ago.

[Nintex]

I must say it has been a delight to look at UK politics today compared to the circus going on elsewhere.

Everyone is very civil and well spoken even if they disagree.
"The honourable gentleman would be wrong to assume...."
"My honourable friend would be well advised to look at paragraph 5 section 16...."

And there's the occasional "Hear hear" and "Yeah yeah" with a speaker loudly moderating it all.

[Raist]

They hold the cards, but brexit is going to be bad for the entire eu and not just the UK.

No.

[Madrun Badrun]

Why wouldn’t the EU just say “hey do a new referendum and we’ll call it good”?

It’s madness. They hold the cards, but brexit is going to be bad for the entire eu and not just the UK. You eurotrash  are a vindictive lot.

My uninformed opinion

1) Uk has been the major EU country to resist further EU integration and having them out will make for a stronger and more unified EU in the long run.
2) Letting them back in would be an incredibly weak play and would let other members play the separation card to easy.  Also pretty sure they can't do this legally at this point. 
3)  Given the border mess and potential moves for the financial industry, this will allow the EU to have a large influence over the UK anyways even without them being a member. 

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46214526

[kingv]

They hold the cards, but brexit is going to be bad for the entire eu and not just the UK.

No.

You’re fooling yourself if you think the EU doesn’t come out of this bruised. UK is like... a sixth or so of the EU GDP. Losing that money, and that market is going to be painful for both sides, and will lower both the EU and U.K. negotiating power in trade deals

[Raist]

It's the UK on its own vs. the EU going from 28 to 27 countries.

There's no market to be lost. The UK cannot simply function on its own, half of their economy is based on finances and services. They're certainly not going to import stuff from across oceans when there's a massive variety of productions across the Channel. Conversely, that means that it won't be a burden on imports by the EU. They produce fuck all.

Then there's the issue of bleeding companies (thus jobs) towards the EU.
It's already started. A fuckload of companies (especially in the finance and services sector) have already spent millions to relocate all or part of their operations, many of them as early as January. There's no stopping that.

The UK has always been a net beneficiary within the EU. Sure, they "pay" a lot of money in. They also get a fuckload back, be it directly through subsidies, grants etc, but also indirectly because the overwhelming majority of EU migrants are students (who bring a fuckton of money in the universities) and young workers. Who not only contribute a massive amount of money via taxes (this alone is well over the amount contributed by the UK to the EU), but also barely make an impact in terms of costs via social services (healthcare, education, benefits etc).

It's not going to be pretty.

[Raist]

He told the BBC: "For the first time in 1,000 years, this place, this Parliament, will not have a say over the laws that govern this country. It is a quite incredible state of affairs.

B-b-but... I thought the whole Brexit thing was about finally taking back control of your own laws, from the hands of evil yurop

[Madrun Badrun]

LOL the UK has a budget vote next week.  This is beyond a train wreck.

[Crash Dummy]

so happy i brexited myself

[kingv]

It's the UK on its own vs. the EU going from 28 to 27 countries.

There's no market to be lost. The UK cannot simply function on its own, half of their economy is based on finances and services. They're certainly not going to import stuff from across oceans when there's a massive variety of productions across the Channel. Conversely, that means that it won't be a burden on imports by the EU. They produce fuck all.

Then there's the issue of bleeding companies (thus jobs) towards the EU.
It's already started. A fuckload of companies (especially in the finance and services sector) have already spent millions to relocate all or part of their operations, many of them as early as January. There's no stopping that.

The UK has always been a net beneficiary within the EU. Sure, they "pay" a lot of money in. They also get a fuckload back, be it directly through subsidies, grants etc, but also indirectly because the overwhelming majority of EU migrants are students (who bring a fuckton of money in the universities) and young workers. Who not only contribute a massive amount of money via taxes (this alone is well over the amount contributed by the UK to the EU), but also barely make an impact in terms of costs via social services (healthcare, education, benefits etc).

It's not going to be pretty.

More Free trade is always better than less free trade, in aggregate. There will be some winners and some losers, but the rest of the EU will not net-net have a higher GDP because of brexit. It will have some costs in the system. Some countries might net benefit, but most will not.

There may be other benefits like the strength or unity of the EU, but additional barriers to trade will have a negative effect on wages and GDP growth. Maybe they figure out a way to brexit and not change the overall tariff scheme, but it looking kind of unlikely

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/9xqckx/turkey_leaks_photos_of_jamal_khashoggis/

fuck

[kingv]

Yeah... I’m not going to look at those pictures

[Great Rumbler]

They're fake, just still from some TV show.

[Nintex]

What sort of sick fuck would release fake photo's of this event

spoiler (click to show/hide)

[close]

[benjipwns]

I must say it has been a delight to look at UK politics today compared to the circus going on elsewhere.

Everyone is very civil and well spoken even if they disagree.
"The honourable gentleman would be wrong to assume...."
"My honourable friend would be well advised to look at paragraph 5 section 16...."

And there's the occasional "Hear hear" and "Yeah yeah" with a speaker loudly moderating it all.

The U.S. Senate has this same kind of rule, it's actually even harsher than Parliament's. You cannot address another member from the floor of the Senate, all comments must be addressed to the presiding officer.

(The House is mildly more lax, but you can't bring your dogs onto the floor of the House since Speaker Henry Clay ruled otherwise in 1813 or whatever it was.)

[benjipwns]

1811.

[Madrun Badrun]

They're fake, just still from some TV show.

really?  Well that's kind of a relief.  That hand would have haunted me. 

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1063833975158960128

With reports that 5 cabinet members have threatened to resign unless she changes the deal this seems to be the end of the road for May.

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-brexit-fantasy-goes-down-in-tears

[Nintex]

What saves Brexit will be Brussels, Germany and France.
The English are known to sometimes drag their feet and fuck around. They have done so for many years, even when they were still part of the EU.
Even their most famous historical figures like Churchill were fuck-ups until they weren't.

Germany however, doesn't do 'no deal' or 'anarchy' Germans are well organized and prepared. They won't allow a no-deal scenario to unfold that could endanger their economy, security or country.
With Macron at the helm of France (and his approval is like 20%) I don't see him sitting on his hands while this plays out either.
Both Merkel and Macron don't want to be the German and French leaders that watched the EU collapse under their watch.
If Brittain doesn't pay the 40 billion or there's no settlement of any kind, the Italians and others with a significant debt to the EU would follow with their own 'clean Brexit' shortly.
Not to mention that if the Brits walk away with 40 billion even the Dutch and German tax payers will feel duped.

Lastly, there's the bureaucrats in Brussels. Who've been put in that spot by powerful business interests and the leaders of the most important countries (Germany, France, Netherlands, Baltics) precisely to prevent a no deal scenario like this from happening.
As soon as it looks like a no deal Brexit is certain German car makers and other powerful lobbyists in Brussels will protest. The same people that write most of their policies. In fact, the most important civil servants in Brussels meet with representatives of German banks and industry to discuss and set policy on a nearly daily basis. Nothing in Brussels gets done without the go ahead of powerful interests.

The breaking point and leverage will be the 40 billion settlement payment. The EU is already low on cash and wants to raise more from member states.

With Greece the same thing happened (and now it's playing out with Italy as well).
They were always tethering on the brink of Brussels walking away from the table but deadlines and goalposts kept being moved and the EU never could walk away and the Greeks knew it.

At some point or another the EU(and/or Germany or France) will budge. And the Brits know this, because they've sat at the same table negotiating with the Greeks, Italians, Spanish and all the other deadbeats in the past.
They know how this game is played.

[Raist]

What saves Brexit will be Brussels, Germany and France.
The English are known to sometimes drag their feet and fuck around. They have done so for many years, even when they were still part of the EU.
Even their most famous historical figures like Churchill were fuck-ups until they weren't.

Germany however, doesn't do 'no deal' or 'anarchy' Germans are well organized and prepared. They won't allow a no-deal scenario to unfold that could endanger their economy, security or country.
With Macron at the helm of France (and his approval is like 20%) I don't see him sitting on his hands while this plays out either.
Both Merkel and Macron don't want to be the German and French leaders that watched the EU collapse under their watch.
If Brittain doesn't pay the 40 billion or there's no settlement of any kind, the Italians and others with a significant debt to the EU would follow with their own 'clean Brexit' shortly.
Not to mention that if the Brits walk away with 40 billion even the Dutch and German tax payers will feel duped.

Lastly, there's the bureaucrats in Brussels. Who've been put in that spot by powerful business interests and the leaders of the most important countries (Germany, France, Netherlands, Baltics) precisely to prevent a no deal scenario like this from happening.
As soon as it looks like a no deal Brexit is certain German car makers and other powerful lobbyists in Brussels will protest. The same people that write most of their policies. In fact, the most important civil servants in Brussels meet with representatives of German banks and industry to discuss and set policy on a nearly daily basis. Nothing in Brussels gets done without the go ahead of powerful interests.

The breaking point and leverage will be the 40 billion settlement payment. The EU is already low on cash and wants to raise more from member states.

With Greece the same thing happened (and now it's playing out with Italy as well).
They were always tethering on the brink of Brussels walking away from the table but deadlines and goalposts kept being moved and the EU never could walk away and the Greeks knew it.

At some point or another the EU(and/or Germany or France) will budge. And the Brits know this, because they've sat at the same table negotiating with the Greeks, Italians, Spanish and all the other deadbeats in the past.
They know how this game is played.

[Raist]

Brexiteer Tory MP Mark Francois, who has submitted a letter of no confidence, says the prime minister is "irretrievably committed to Chequers".

He says: "The draft agreement is 585 pages, it is extremely complex and is written in legalese.

 


https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1063790996859830272


"This deal to leave the EU does not allow us to remain a member of the EU "

[Nintex]

It is now more about getting rid of May and finding other uses for the 40 billion than Brexit.

This Brexit thing doesn't seem nearly as important to most conservative MP's.

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46237012

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1064093866440253441

With opposition like this

[Sman]

I always thought the French political scene as inept and depressing.

But then I look at the UK in the last few years and the French don't look so bad in comparison.

[Madrun Badrun]

[Raist]

It is now more about getting rid of May and finding other uses for the 40 billion than Brexit.

This Brexit thing doesn't seem nearly as important to most conservative MP's.

Wait, you thought they ever gave a shit?

Oh you sweet summer child.







nigelfaragethingsarelookingprettygood.gif

[Raist]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46257168

Ah yes, let's divert from the shitshow by talking about them migrants and how we're gonna stop them stealing our jurbz.

Wait...

She will say migration will become skills-based, with Europeans no longer prioritised over "engineers from Sydney or software developers from Delhi".

Amazing pic btw, Theresa

[Cerveza mas fina]

At some point or another the EU(and/or Germany or France) will budge. And the Brits know this, because they've sat at the same table negotiating with the Greeks, Italians, Spanish and all the other deadbeats in the past.
They know how this game is played.

The EU budged in the case of member states to protect the EU.

In this case protecting the EU means showing what happens when you leave the EU, so they won't budge to make a point.

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-46258584

[Brehvolution]

"This deal to leave the EU does not allow us to remain a member of the EU "

Conservatism in a nutshell.

[Nintex]

So now the brexiteers are fighting among themselves and the DUP seems to mull dropping support of May's government.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1064639095564054535

[benjipwns]

The world can't let Russia run Interpol. My experiences show why.

Putin is about to gain control of the world's main law enforcement.

I'm going to go ahead and suggest these headlines might be a little hyperbolic, especially considering:

British officials expect Alexander Prokopchuk, a former major-general at the Russian Interior Ministry, to be elected as Interpol president as soon as Wednesday, The Times reported, without saying where it got the information.

The election would follow the resignation of former President Meng Hongwei, who is now being investigated by Chinese authorities under suspicion of accepting bribes and violating other state laws.

...

Prokopchuk is currently a vice president at Interpol.

[shosta]

let's check up on Tanzania, since they're going to be one of the world's largest countries in a few decades

As Magufuli’s popularity declines, so his peculiar economic interventions have increased. Only this month, Magufuli tried to force up the price of cashew nuts, a major crop in Tanzania. Nut buyers rejected the new state-declared price, which was much higher than the international price. Undeterred, Magufuli ordered the Tanzania People’s Defence Forces to buy the produce at almost twice the market rate. The effort was clearly a political ploy since the major nut-growing region, Mtwara, is an opposition stronghold and the intention was to increase the president’s popularity among nut growers in this region. However, to do so, Magufuli has acted in defiance of simple market economics typical of his benighted and archaic socialist ideas.

Magufuli’s most economically damaging economic intervention has been to change the mining laws, making the country effectively a no-go investment destination. In 2016, he introduced legislation that requires at least a 16% government free carry, increases royalties on metals exports from 4%-6%, allows the government to cancel or renegotiate gas and mineral contracts, and forbids companies from seeking international arbitration.

The most egregious act of government has been to claim $190bn from Barrick’s Acacia Mining in taxes, fines and interest, which is about 200 times the mine’s gold reserves. Magufuli is a former high-school chemistry teacher and, according to industry specialists, the claim is based on his own calculation of the value of gold plus other mineral content of the ore. Magufuli’s claim is that the total value of the ore ought to reflect the value of all its content, but in fact ore with additional mineral content is sold at a discount because special processes are necessary to remove the non-gold content

ah, ok, let's not go back to Tanzania

[benjipwns]

The government had warned politicians to refrain from engaging in witchcraft

wow, so much for free and fair elections

[Nintex]

The world can't let Russia run Interpol. My experiences show why.

Putin is about to gain control of the world's main law enforcement.

I'm going to go ahead and suggest these headlines might be a little hyperbolic, especially considering:

British officials expect Alexander Prokopchuk, a former major-general at the Russian Interior Ministry, to be elected as Interpol president as soon as Wednesday, The Times reported, without saying where it got the information.

The election would follow the resignation of former President Meng Hongwei, who is now being investigated by Chinese authorities under suspicion of accepting bribes and violating other state laws.

...

Prokopchuk is currently a vice president at Interpol.

You think those are hyberbolic? 

https://twitter.com/TomRtweets/status/1064992730403823617

https://twitter.com/20committee/status/1064993971741573122

How about we start playing for REAL here and bring in ISIS and the Nazi's. 

[Madrun Badrun]

so many more  https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/9yrvqn/brexit_means_titanic/

[shosta]

Hillary Clinton: Europe must curb immigration to stop right wing populists

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/Ruptly/status/1065694759552016385

They are preparing to #FreePaulManafort