US Politics Thread |OT| SAD TRUMP

[Great Rumbler]

https://twitter.com/JordanUhl/status/1231790013899137024



WaPo

https://twitter.com/alassek/status/1231792583036358656

[naff]

https://twitter.com/pwthornton/status/1232386471660806144

We found that nominating Sanders would drive many Americans who would otherwise vote for a moderate Democrat to vote for Trump

youth turnout would only have to be ~10-12% higher than 2008 to make up for their so called lost "moderate" voters. comparing against historically low turnout in 2016 is a little misleading. they're also making some very large assumptions on how attacks against moderates smearing them as extreme etc during the general are going to affect their standings with these swing voters.

interesting paper they wrote anyway, but any speculation on bernie v moderates and effectiveness against trump using traditional metrics should be highly suspect.

https://osf.io/25wm9/

[Great Rumbler]

Stop quoting Nintex so I don't accidentally see his posts.

[Occam]

Stop quoting Nintex so I don't accidentally see his posts.

Just out of interest, can you (or an admin) see how many people have Nintex blocked?

[benjipwns]

You know what struck me about that paper (after I got over all the personal paper quirks) they basically canonized Trump as a "moderate candidate" rather than address it even though their own 2020 survey showed that not even Republicans consider him one.

If we award Obama and Hillary a similar score in their ideological chart as Biden just to be simple, and shift Romney/McCain towards the moderate from Trump. Then 2016 already broke the 2000-2012 mold of moderate vs. moderate. It was moderate vs. radical. And then 2020 isn't radical vs. moderate but radical vs. radical, by their own measures. Applying theories and models dating back to 2013, or even 1957, wouldn't account for this.

[kingv]

https://twitter.com/pwthornton/status/1232386471660806144

We found that nominating Sanders would drive many Americans who would otherwise vote for a moderate Democrat to vote for Trump

youth turnout would only have to be ~10-12% higher than 2008 to make up for their so called lost "moderate" voters. comparing against historically low turnout in 2016 is a little misleading. they're also making some very large assumptions on how attacks against moderates smearing them as extreme etc during the general are going to affect their standings with these swing voters.

interesting paper they wrote anyway, but any speculation on bernie v moderates and effectiveness against trump using traditional metrics should be highly suspect.

https://osf.io/25wm9/

Bernie has been beating Trump in National polls pretty consistently for like 4 years. This type of “analysis” gets a yawn from me.

[thisismyusername]

https://twitter.com/mooncult/status/1232160342848851968


 

https://twitter.com/ComradCapacitor/status/1232176458577121280

Awww, he deleted it.

BUT WAIT, found the image again:

https://twitter.com/i_Biden/status/1232162273600385024

You can't escape this thread, Buttchug's husband!

[Occam]

Oh, I'm a senior member now.
Does that make me a boomer? Senior moments incoming!

[Nintex]

Bernie has been beating Trump in National polls pretty consistently for like 4 years. This type of “analysis” gets a yawn from me.

Political pundits

[Great Rumbler]

Stop quoting Nintex so I don't accidentally see his posts.

Just out of interest, can you (or an admin) see how many people have Nintex blocked?

It used to show up on their profile, but it doesn't anymore.

[james]

https://twitter.com/AIPAC/status/1232350165698334721

He's going to bring the corona virus isn't he

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/PasteMagazine/status/1232430498330353665

 

[nachobro]

"posting-to-praxis pipeline" has convinced me to vote for mike bloomberg in the primary

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/TVNewsHQ/status/1232419760815603713

 

[nachobro]

just kidding i'm voting for bill weld

[thisismyusername]

"posting-to-praxis pipeline" has convinced me to vote for mike bloomberg in the primary

Virgil posting Salo didn't?

[nachobro]

i have a strict "no asian" policy on my twitter timeline. once kpop got big i had to ban them all.

[Nintex]

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/484592-fox-news-primetime-lineup-delivers-highest-ratings-in-network-history

In the 25-54 demographic, FNC saw a 27 percent increase while CNN and MSNBC were down 6 and 7 percent, respectively.

TV audience:

Democratic primary clown show 
Lou Dobbs talking BuSinEsS

[benjipwns]

Serbia

 

[Great Rumbler]

i have a strict "no asian" policy on my twitter timeline. once kpop got big i had to ban them all.

That's not how you avoid getting the corona virus.

[Nintex]

Tonight we will see if Bernie is as much the nimble navigator as the Donald.

[Trurl]

If I were Bernie and I was getting dogpiled I would just yell "back off! I have a heart condition!"

[VomKriege]

https://twitter.com/PasteMagazine/status/1232430498330353665

 

S.Crowder ?
"Alexa, give me the definition of Nazism, then Socialism."

[benjipwns]

If I were Bernie and I was getting dogpiled I would just yell "back off! I have a heart condition!"

"Why can't I have a heart attack? I'm allowed!"

[nachobro]

https://twitter.com/PasteMagazine/status/1232430498330353665

 

nick mullen. very excited for mayor mike to break out an impression of a mexican day laborer and almost say the n word like 12 times tonight.

[Nintex]

Louis C.K.: "So Mike, tonight's the night. Remember, the N-word always works great but you need to laugh as you say it."

[benjipwns]

He should have quoted this line from Bernie's big plan page instead of some stump stuff:

so I was looking at some of his funding plans because he was waving his receipts around last night at the town hall and holy shit at how ridiculous some of these proposals are. I'm surprised they haven't been criticized more by the media. For instance the idea that you're going to raise trillions to pay for free college by taxing "speculation" is just bananas. I feel like the people writing this just multiplied their tax rate by the volume of trade and then said "boom, there's your money baby". Kalecki used to say economics is the science of confusing stocks and flows but goddamn...

Actually that seems like a common theme in these proposals where they're looking at the nominal value of wealth as a big money bank instead of really taking the care to set up sustainable revenue streams. Given how much flak M4A gets, it's actually kind of ironic because it's probably the only one that's actually affordable

After the electricity part I liked these:

Collecting $2.3 trillion in new income tax revenue from the 20 million new jobs created by the plan.

Saving $1.31 trillion by reduced the need for federal and state safety net spending due to the creation of millions of good-paying, unionized jobs.

[benjipwns]

https://berniesanders.com/issues/how-does-bernie-pay-his-major-plans/

It will cost $2.2 trillion to make public colleges, universities and trade schools tuition-free and to cancel all student debt over the next decade. It is fully paid for by a modest tax on Wall Street speculation that will raise an estimated $2.4 trillion over ten years.

[Cauliflower Of Love]

I mean, what good are line item budget proposals from the white house when congress just used the paper for soduko?



I wonder if they have a release form from birdie to use his likeness.

[benjipwns]

$2.3 trillion in new income tax revenue on 20 million new jobs is $115,000 in taxes per job. Did someone not even attempt the math on this part?

[naff]

You know what struck me about that paper (after I got over all the personal paper quirks) they basically canonized Trump as a "moderate candidate" rather than address it even though their own 2020 survey showed that not even Republicans consider him one.

If we award Obama and Hillary a similar score in their ideological chart as Biden just to be simple, and shift Romney/McCain towards the moderate from Trump. Then 2016 already broke the 2000-2012 mold of moderate vs. moderate. It was moderate vs. radical. And then 2020 isn't radical vs. moderate but radical vs. radical, by their own measures. Applying theories and models dating back to 2013, or even 1957, wouldn't account for this.

i liked this series of graphs and how perception of bernie and trump is mirrored from both aisles

[Cauliflower Of Love]

$2.3 trillion in new income tax revenue on 20 million new jobs is $115,000 in taxes per job. Did someone not even attempt the math on this part?

It's over fifteen years, no?

[thisismyusername]

You know what struck me about that paper (after I got over all the personal paper quirks) they basically canonized Trump as a "moderate candidate" rather than address it even though their own 2020 survey showed that not even Republicans consider him one.

If we award Obama and Hillary a similar score in their ideological chart as Biden just to be simple, and shift Romney/McCain towards the moderate from Trump. Then 2016 already broke the 2000-2012 mold of moderate vs. moderate. It was moderate vs. radical. And then 2020 isn't radical vs. moderate but radical vs. radical, by their own measures. Applying theories and models dating back to 2013, or even 1957, wouldn't account for this.

i liked this series of graphs and how perception of bernie and trump is mirrored from both aisles

(Image removed from quote.)

Those are some weird buttplugs...

[naff]

$2.3 trillion in new income tax revenue on 20 million new jobs is $115,000 in taxes per job. Did someone not even attempt the math on this part?

It's over fifteen years, no?

was just about to post this, but I thought it was ten. wholly reasonable, but also a weird omission not to add that.

[Cauliflower Of Love]

It's there

This plan will pay for itself over 15 years. Experts have scored the plan and its economic effects. We will pay for the massive investment we need to reverse the climate crisis by:

FACT CHECK: doxxers like benji are too quick to try and do a hit job to fact check

Reality is those numbers are only need to pacify, because new spending to create these programs have a proven capacity of 3:1 return

[Himu]

[benjipwns]

It's over fifteen years, no?

edit: couldn't find an old chart of the Bush Tax Cut Revenue projections

[naff]

It's there

This plan will pay for itself over 15 years. Experts have scored the plan and its economic effects. We will pay for the massive investment we need to reverse the climate crisis by:

FACT CHECK: doxxers like benji are too quick to try and do a hit job to fact check

Reality is those numbers are only need to pacify, because new spending to create these programs have a proven capacity of 3:1 return

also, the proposed financial transactions tax, or what i think is commonly called a capital gains tax on "wall street speculation" isn't that weird right? idk about the numbers in terms of expected revenue, i imagine it would warp the market/they'd move to more laissez faire economic markets for trading but still, it's p common.

[naff]

booty and bloomberg want the same thing at lower rates anticipating ~800 billion in revenue over ten years from it

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/484433-financial-trade-tax-gains-traction-with-2020-democrats

https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/uneasy-case-financial-transaction-tax

What’s the appeal? Revenue, to start. TPC estimates that a hypothetical 0.1 percent tax on sales of equities and bonds (and 0.01 percent on derivatives) would raise over $50 billion per year. And  the tax would be highly progressive.  Three-quarters of the tax would fall on the highest-income 20 percent of households, and 40 percent would be paid by taxpayers in the top 1 percent.  It’s not quite the “Robin Hood Tax” that some proponents claim—some of the burden would fall on middle-income investors and retirees—but it’s pretty progressive.

https://www.sanders.senate.gov/download/inclusive-prosperity-fact-sheet-2019?id=E276EEE6-B1A2-47E5-964B-4070367CBD33&download=1&inline=file

The Inclusive Prosperity Act would impose a tax of a fraction of a percent on trades of stocks,
bonds, and derivatives. This Wall Street speculation fee, also known as a financial transaction
tax, will raise substantial revenue from wealthy investors that can be used to make public
colleges and universities tuition free and substantially reduce student debt. It will also reduce
speculation and high-frequency trading that is destabilizing financial markets. During the
financial crisis, Wall Street received the largest taxpayer bailout in the history of the world. Now
it is Wall Street’s turn to rebuild the disappearing middle class.

 

seems pretty sound to me

[jakefromstatefarm]

is the fixation on capital gains and corporate taxes just to do with the clout you get by saying youre gonna raise taxes on wall street? why not just tax the shit out of those same people at the stage of personal income?

[benjipwns]

The TPC estimate wouldn't raise 20% of what Bernie's page claims he will get on "speculation" purely.

[benjipwns]

is the fixation on capital gains and corporate taxes just to do with the clout you get by saying youre gonna raise taxes on wall street? why not just tax the shit out of those same people at the stage of personal income?

One requires practically reconstructing the tax code from scratch (to redefine income and such), the other is futzing with the rates.

Reagan of all people actually wanted to hold taxes steady on the rich at first, while simplifying everything else and all but eliminating the bottom end as part of a broad simplification like you're proposing and couldn't even get that because there's too much value in Congress being able to tweak every little piece. So he settled for a two-and-a-half bracket system that lasted a whopping three years and then three more before it was already back to seven brackets. (All of them with a lower top rate than his original proposal. Clinton even cut the capital gains rate even lower which is the boon to the rich rich.)

There's also value in the fact that people don't see corporate tax rates and associate it with prices, they just look at their own taxes.

[benjipwns]

This was the primary goal of the second Reagan tax cut in 1986, Carter had already sliced them in half and there were still tons:

[naff]

The TPC estimate wouldn't raise 20% of what Bernie's page claims he will get on "speculation" purely.

from bernies policy referencing this paper: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02692171.2018.1485634?scroll=top&needAccess=true

Raising Revenue to Invest in America’s Future
It has been estimated that this legislation would raise up to $220 billion in the first year or more
than $2.4 trillion over 10 years.

TPC estimate 50 billion per year in the link I posted before. That's 22% of what bernies program estimates 

[james]

Every person should have a unique tax bracket

[naff]

anyway, you can disagree with the studies the campaign is referencing justifying the accounting for these policies but the only people doing bad math here are benji and shasta

[Cauliflower Of Love]

how salty is biden he's not in the center

[Cauliflower Of Love]

Dunking on bloomberg commenced.

[OnlyRegret]

The generation of enthusiasm is a good thing to look into.

[benjipwns]

What bad math have I done?

All I'm doing is disagreeing absolutely with fictional decade plus "estimates" that have no downsides. The government fails completely at it using transparent failed methodologies they're required to by law, why would you ever believe a cherry picking campaigns figures that are using not higher but astronomical bounds?

Might as well just go straight to MMT.

[Cauliflower Of Love]

That's exactly what it is, and it's the right way.

[EightBitNate]

There’s a debate on btw

[VomKriege]

The BIG CONSERVATIVE MONEY behind benji was Bloomberg's all along.
 

[Cauliflower Of Love]

There’s a debate on btw

[EightBitNate]

This crowd does not like Bernie lol

[OnlyRegret]

so Bloomberg just admitted he has a bunch of his paid dudes in the audience

[naff]

What bad math have I done?

All I'm doing is disagreeing absolutely with fictional decade plus "estimates" that have no downsides. The government fails completely at it using transparent failed methodologies they're required to by law, why would you ever believe a cherry picking campaigns figures that are using not higher but astronomical bounds?

$2.3 trillion in new income tax revenue on 20 million new jobs is $115,000 in taxes per job. Did someone not even attempt the math on this part?

average tax payer annual income tax paid in the us = 11,000

20,000,000 new jobs w avg income tax of 11k over 15 years = $3.3 trillion

The TPC estimate wouldn't raise 20% of what Bernie's page claims he will get on "speculation" purely.

from bernies policy referencing this paper: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02692171.2018.1485634?scroll=top&needAccess=true

Raising Revenue to Invest in America’s Future
It has been estimated that this legislation would raise up to $220 billion in the first year or more
than $2.4 trillion over 10 years.

TPC estimate 50 billion per year in the link I posted before. That's 22% of what bernies program estimates 

i mean im nitpicking here but still

[Cauliflower Of Love]

Caption Pete Obvious Buttigieg.

[EightBitNate]

https://twitter.com/doubleouttahere/status/1232472428900581376

[benjipwns]

i mean im nitpicking here but still

That's all it is.

Not only is it on a page where everything else is ten years when you go to the further explanation, in the same paragraph it's both fifteen years and ten years:

As president, Bernie Sanders will launch the decade of the Green New Deal, a ten-year, nationwide mobilization

...

Ending unemployment by creating 20 million jobs

...

This plan will pay for itself over 15 years.

...

Collecting new income tax revenue from the 20 million new jobs created by the plan.

All of which is irrelevant as I divided the amount by the jobs, not by any years.

And I doubt the $50 billion figure, in any case I rounded to the nearest 5% from $2.4 trillion. (Plus the $220 billion figure uses up to five times higher rates than TPC does.)