Author Topic: International Politics Thread - Disease and Disaster  (Read 1457162 times)

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hungrynoob

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3840 on: March 16, 2018, 02:39:46 AM »
Dude he's just a poor public speaker, if you're basing your belief the attack was staged or whatever on politicians trying unconvincingly to act tough I'm pretty unconvinced. Watch the other clip in that article, that's how he talks.

Edit: I went back and read your original past and this line
Theyre hiding something. And I dont know what to do with this information.
makes  you sound unhinged.

Im glad you mentioned the other video, because in my consideration his mannerisms are totally different, in this second video, as he talks about russias involvement in other areas of the world - hes speaking honestly, with emphasis, no slip ups.

Im not a conspiracy theorist, and im certainly not a fan of russia. I mentioned in the triumph thread awhile back, my passion is reading people and seeking the truth. These are my reads. Im not saying for certain that the UK did the attack on its own soil for its own political gain. All im saying is, when our politicians speak about the attack specifically, there are multiple deceptive markers.

Mandark

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3841 on: March 16, 2018, 02:51:54 AM »
guys I'm sorry I radicalized hungrynoob by making fun of jp

hungrynoob

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3842 on: March 16, 2018, 02:57:52 AM »
That doesnt even make sense, if anything my post history on these particular matters would be in line with the complete opposite with your insinuations.

I dont care if you dont believe me, i dont expect anyone would - that doesnt change what I see. I've spent the last 3 years studying and practicing reading facial expressions, body language and deception detection. Ranging from Dr Paul Ekman to  Susan Carnicero. Theres no agenda behind it, its just what im seeing.

warcock

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3843 on: March 16, 2018, 03:22:35 AM »
I've spent the last 3 years studying and practicing reading facial expressions, body language and deception detection.
lol newsfeed

obligatory.


curly

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3844 on: March 16, 2018, 03:23:30 AM »
ok now I'm just intrigued, are you doing this for a job or is it a personal hobby?

benjipwns

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3845 on: March 16, 2018, 03:30:29 AM »
I've spent the last 3 years studying and practicing reading facial expressions, body language and deception detection. Ranging from Dr Paul Ekman to  Susan Carnicero.
Janine Driver?

spoiler (click to show/hide)
did you see how I pretended to know about this topic by mentioning the only person I know of in the field, and due to Red Eye

edit:
spoiler (click to show/hide)
[close]
[close]

hungrynoob

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3846 on: March 16, 2018, 03:54:59 AM »
ok now I'm just intrigued, are you doing this for a job or is it a personal hobby?

I did this as a personal hobby (although there are other reasons beind it i dont want to get into), im now conducting a presentation outlining the methodologies i use for the board of directors at my company to try centre my career around it, first submission was done 4 days ago, which my boss said I would hear feedback from about today.

As i was in the shower, I want to clarify something, when I said my passion was finding the truth. That doesnt mean my passion is uncovering conspiracies, my passion is knowing whether an individual in any given context is lying or not. If you played 20 questions with me theres a good chance, with the right questions ill find out some of your darkest secrets.

Mandark

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3847 on: March 16, 2018, 04:01:23 AM »
If you played 20 questions with me theres a good chance, with the right questions ill find out some of your darkest secrets.

what do you think the rules of 20 questions are?

hungrynoob

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3848 on: March 16, 2018, 04:03:05 AM »
If you played 20 questions with me theres a good chance, with the right questions ill find out some of your darkest secrets.

what do you think the rules of 20 questions are?

lmao - actually yeah i had something else in my head. Ok 20 questions where you dont have to answer.

hungrynoob

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3849 on: March 16, 2018, 01:58:38 PM »
well my last message made sense in the given context so if you dont understand thats on you.

Mandark

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3850 on: March 16, 2018, 02:12:51 PM »
nah man that's still not how 20 questions works

Mandark

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3851 on: March 16, 2018, 02:34:09 PM »
A GAME OF 20 QUESTIONS

HUNGRYBOOB: with my years of training in body language and microexpressions, he will be no match for me

ME: I'm thinking of... a penguin! Aw yeah.

HUNGRYBOOB: Judging from your suspicious lack of eyebrow movement, you killed Seth Rich, didn't you?

ME: o fuk

Broseidon

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3852 on: March 16, 2018, 02:55:32 PM »
well my last message made sense in the given context so if you dont understand thats on you.

bent

hungrynoob

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3853 on: March 16, 2018, 04:32:25 PM »
nah man that's still not how 20 questions works

nah i know im an idiot sometimes but what i said isnt wrong.

hungrynoob

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3854 on: March 16, 2018, 04:46:26 PM »
"I dont understand something therefore it must not be true"


hungrynoob

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3855 on: March 16, 2018, 05:00:31 PM »
No, youre supposed to dismantle something you view as false with fact and logic.

hungrynoob

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3856 on: March 16, 2018, 05:07:35 PM »
willing to accept im being overly defensive, because im not being railroaded due to pure shitposting - i stand by my read that sparked this bullshit.

benjipwns

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3857 on: March 16, 2018, 07:56:52 PM »
HUNGRYBOOB: Judging from your suspicious lack of eyebrow movement, you killed Seth Rich, didn't you?

ME: o fuk
HE ADMITS IT


Nintex

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3859 on: March 18, 2018, 07:59:36 AM »
Prepare yourself Armchair generals

Rumor: NATO is massing a fleet for an air-assault on Assad's troops fighting the rebels in Damascus to give Putin a 'bloody nose' at the start of his 4th term.
Fact: Ukraine blocked access to Russian consulates to prevent Russians living in Ukraine from voting in the elections. Based on a 'threat by radicals'. The Russians are fuming, threatening to invade.

https://twitter.com/L0gg0l/status/975338054952026112

 :doge
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benjipwns

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3860 on: March 19, 2018, 04:33:45 AM »
DEMOCRACY PREVAILS
Code: [Select]
Candidate Party %
Vladimir Putin Independent 76.67
Pavel Grudinin Communist Party 11.79
Vladimir Zhirinovsky Liberal Democratic Party 5.66
Ksenia Sobchak Civic Initiative 1.67
Grigory Yavlinsky Yabloko 1.04
Boris Titov Party of Growth 0.76
Maxim Suraykin Communists of Russia 0.68
Sergey Baburin Russian All-People's Union 0.65

benjipwns

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3861 on: March 19, 2018, 04:37:09 AM »
dangerous hipster held under 2%: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ksenia_Sobchak

HardcoreRetro

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3862 on: March 19, 2018, 05:18:24 AM »
Some of them are more equal than others.

benjipwns

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3863 on: March 19, 2018, 08:02:53 AM »
why are there at least three separate communist parties :doge
most democracies have three or more communist parties due to SPLITTERS and REVISIONISTS and TENDENCIES

jorma

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3864 on: March 19, 2018, 09:44:52 AM »
DEMOCRACY PREVAILS
Code: [Select]
Candidate Party %
Vladimir Putin Independent 76.67
Pavel Grudinin Communist Party 11.79
Vladimir Zhirinovsky Liberal Democratic Party 5.66
Ksenia Sobchak Civic Initiative 1.67
Grigory Yavlinsky Yabloko 1.04
Boris Titov Party of Growth 0.76
Maxim Suraykin Communists of Russia 0.68
Sergey Baburin Russian All-People's Union 0.65

why are there at least three separate communist parties :doge

That's nothing. Sweden has 6 social democrat parties, and that's just the ones represented in parliament.
As an added bonus, at least half of them hate the Social Democratic workers party.


Nintex

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curly

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BisMarckie

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3867 on: March 21, 2018, 07:11:16 PM »

most democracies have three or more communist parties due to SPLITTERS and REVISIONISTS and TENDENCIES

I had a friend in college who was a member of a communist party and the impression I got was that they hate the other communist parties more than anything else.
It's basically this:


But only the fourth international vs the fifth international  :doge




VomKriege

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3871 on: March 24, 2018, 02:56:06 AM »
Nothing funnier than him going to the media and be all indignant and his grating self about it. What a prick.
ὕβρις

benjipwns

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3872 on: March 24, 2018, 11:48:14 AM »
Egypt is going to have a Presidential election, if you're skeptical or worried about the flourishing of democracy you should know that there is in fact a candidate running against Sisi after all:
Quote
Moussa Mostafa Moussa, a pro-Sisi politician who had an active role in collecting nomination pledges for Sisi’s second term until 20 January ... Moussa submitted his nomination pledges and official paperwork to the commission just 15 minutes before the deadline.

Nintex

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3873 on: March 25, 2018, 06:56:45 AM »
Egypt is going to have a Presidential election, if you're skeptical or worried about the flourishing of democracy you should know that there is in fact a candidate running against Sisi after all:
Quote
Moussa Mostafa Moussa, a pro-Sisi politician who had an active role in collecting nomination pledges for Sisi’s second term until 20 January ... Moussa submitted his nomination pledges and official paperwork to the commission just 15 minutes before the deadline.
I'm still waiting for a political scenario where the strong man of a nation sends a flunky to run against him to make it look democratic and loses.
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Nintex

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3874 on: March 25, 2018, 05:29:05 PM »
When you accidentally bomb your own country
https://twitter.com/L0gg0l/status/978018919196823552
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Nintex

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3875 on: March 26, 2018, 06:45:06 PM »
Current state of geo politics


 :trumps
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Corporal

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3876 on: March 29, 2018, 09:26:26 AM »
I think more research needs to be done in this regard:

Quote from: politico
Charles de Gaulle was right.

The former president articulated the despair of French officials throughout history when he said, “How can you govern a country which has 246 varieties of cheese?”

We set out to test that theory by comparing the number of cheeses each EU country produces with its political stability (or otherwise).
(source {with fancy mouseover SFX})
« Last Edit: March 29, 2018, 09:31:53 AM by Corporal »
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HardcoreRetro

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3877 on: March 29, 2018, 12:24:07 PM »
There's probably some holes in that research.

Nintex

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3878 on: March 29, 2018, 05:32:04 PM »
https://twitter.com/L0gg0l/status/979455995691839492

NATO member sending troops to defend locals against a NATO ally  :doge
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Broseidon

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bent

Corporal

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3880 on: March 31, 2018, 08:25:01 AM »
Someone translate that for me, I'm too old for this twitter shit.

Anyway, in the continuing saga of self-inflicted humiliation, Germany now has to admit it won't be able to supply the 10 Tornado jets it pledged for the NATO response force. We have 93 of those 1980's deathtraps, of which on average 63 will work at any given time (although full operational capability can only be garanteed for 16-ish of those). Terrible as it is, that still wouldn't be a problem. However, they are severely out of date. Like, it's a wonder those things are allowed to take off.

They do not have a Friend or Foe system installed (and if they get started on this right now, it will not be operational until after 2019, at the earliest).
Also: the currently installed communications subsystem doesn't support encryption. Like, at all. Note please, these are the sole German delivery system for US nukes in case major shit goes down.

Bonus: They will remain in service until 2035.

It's one thing to have a shitty ass broken military, but if you commit to a multinational task force, you better not do shit like this.

How embarassing.


Oh, and also, it looks like A400M will rip a major hole in the military budget because those stupid chucklefucks lent Airbus&Co more than five hundred million Eurobucks, which will have to come from their upcoming budget. However, the stupid things wouldn't sell if they gave them away for free, which is the contract clause for getting that money back.

Plus, back in the day we preordered 53, then backpedalled to 40 but haven't found a single buyer for those 13 extra machines that we must buy no matter what. Even at discount pricing. They now resort to sponsoring sales shows for Airbus and their ilk, to practically no success. Again, Airbus won't be paying back a dime unless they sell a bunch of them flying toasters, and at the same time they now have the German military openly undercutting their own pricing right from the getgo. Awesome planning.
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Rufus

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3881 on: March 31, 2018, 10:45:38 AM »
Are we still paying McKinsey to consult?

Corporal

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3882 on: March 31, 2018, 01:21:57 PM »
You mean, for handling those dirty refugees?

I dunno, but given how addicted we Germans are to that company, I'd wager the answer is yes, no matter the sector in question. I wouldn't be shocked at all if they also had a finger in the pie regarding our burning wasteheap of a military. All I remember is, for the last five years or so our main defence procurement post was (wo)manned by an ex-McKinsey staffer (Katrin Suder).

//random:
I wish we could be more confident and consistent with our messaging regarding the "autonomous machines in warfare" issue. When Russia, China and the US are so firmly against regulation, you just know which way the wind blows. At first Germany were for a ban, now it's all "mi mi mi, let's compromise like little bitchlings" and "we have no clue on the matter anyway, it's too early, we need a war of machines first before we commit to anything". I mean, that's kinda what diplomacy is all about, but it still annoys me that we may see systems enter large scale adoption before any sort of worldwide agreement on their use is achieved. Just flying by the seat of our pants, as always. Fecking hoomans.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2018, 01:38:52 PM by Corporal »
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Rufus

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3883 on: March 31, 2018, 01:52:54 PM »
Specifically meant the military, sorry. But you bring up a good point, they're everywhere these days... Excellent way to defer responsibility, after all. :goty2

Ha! Just read about the murderbots. Of course Germany (and France :'( ) is waffling on regulation, can't let this business opportunity go to waste.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2018, 01:57:00 PM by Rufus »

benjipwns

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3884 on: April 01, 2018, 05:19:16 AM »
Egypt is going to have a Presidential election, if you're skeptical or worried about the flourishing of democracy you should know that there is in fact a candidate running against Sisi after all:
Quote
Moussa Mostafa Moussa, a pro-Sisi politician who had an active role in collecting nomination pledges for Sisi’s second term until 20 January ... Moussa submitted his nomination pledges and official paperwork to the commission just 15 minutes before the deadline.
I'm still waiting for a political scenario where the strong man of a nation sends a flunky to run against him to make it look democratic and loses.
so close:
Quote
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi   Independent   21,540,185   97.11
Moussa Mostafa Moussa   El-Ghad Party   641,982   2.89
Invalid/blank votes   1,499,682   –
Total   23,681,849   100

Nintex

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3885 on: April 01, 2018, 06:17:23 AM »
I like how dictators who try to hide what they are always run independent.

Still I prefer a general for Egypt over the Muslim Brotherhood filling up stadiums calling for Jihad.
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Corporal

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The depantsing of Germany continues. Kinda.

Remember how we're all about that privacy thing? At least, we like to pretend to. There's countless exceptions where we happily look the other way, like the Schufa credit worthiness rating system that is a data leaker of epic proportions, or how our government gleefully sells data from our car registries and countless other sources. Still. Ahem. DSHERMAN PRIVACY STRONK. BECAUSE WE SAY SO.  :hyper

Right now the Deutsche Post, our privatized national post service, has gotten caught with their hands in the proverbial cookie jar.  :money
From 2005 onwards, they sold data from their customers (i.e. anyone with a postage address in Germany) via a spun off targeted advertiser firm to political parties.

CDU and FDP, our version of the Republicans and Liberals respectively, paid five figures each for access to street-specific data for targeted advertising/propaganda. Each house on a given street was assigned a score between 1 and 100 regarding likely party affinity and other metrics from various sources, then besieged with microtargeted spam.

That's probably pretty tame for non-Europeans, but this is Germany, and after the Cambridge Analytica thing it's kind of a sensitive issue right now. Still at the storm in a teacup stage, but one cannot help but laugh how well it fits.


I fear I'm getting used to this. I might even be starting to like this exhibitionist thing. Can't be shamed if you enjoy having your junk out in the open. :rollsafe

Bring it on, ya prudes. Yes, the emperor has no clothes. And a micropenis and foot-long pubes. BUT SO WHAT. Get an eyeful of good oldfashioned Kraut Wingwang! :phil
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Nintex

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3887 on: April 01, 2018, 07:08:22 PM »
Merkel seems to be untouchable either way.

She got through the thing where the Germans tanked Greece.
The adventure in Ukraine with the Visegrad Group that went awry.
Volkswagen cheating on emissions and gassing monkeys  :'(
She said: "Wir schaffen das" and create the biggest humanitarian disaster in recent history when in fact Cameron was 'this' close to sending the UK navy to close up the Somalia/Libya sea routes

Some stolen voter data is not going to rock the boat. It's just going to be awkward to tell Putin he's cheating, when you know...

The same with our prime minister. Mark Rutte has just started his third cabinet.
- Managed to survive losing 3 justice ministers in a row
- A corruption scandal within his party
- The refugee crisis mess
- A calculation error at an EU meeting that cost us 2 billion eurobucks
- The MH17 disaster
- The cover-up of the MH17 disaster
- The cover-up of the cover-up of the MH17 disaster
- Backing up lies of his right hand man(foreign minister for about 2 weeks) lying about a meeting with Putin that never took place
- Telling voters not a single dime would go to Greece, wiring the money basically a week later
- Promising voters a 1000 Eurobucks each and not delivering
« Last Edit: April 01, 2018, 07:14:16 PM by Nintex »
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Corporal

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3888 on: April 01, 2018, 08:32:15 PM »
The Dieselgate bit is what's really annoying me to no end. On one hand, I respect that Germany can't very well kill off their own car industry out of obligation, but when the car makers are raking in mad dough while lying through their teeth and getting busted left and right in the most obvious manner, it's incredibly insulting to try to sit this one out.

Well, at least Germany is now THIS close to getting sued by EU for failing to protect its citizens from particles and noxious emissions from cars.

Along with pretty much all the other bigger EU countries.

Getting a weird sense of satisfaction from us maybe possibly some day getting our shit pushed back in for always safeguarding our car industry and the precious Diesels as if they were the most fragile thing on Earth. While sleeping on electric / selfdriving cars and renewables and that internet thing and pretty much everything else not invented a century ago.

Still, what a grand look. "You fuckers failed in the most basic way to protect the normal citizenry from painfully and slowly choking on noxious fumes, and you'll now have to hand over an arm and a leg after multiple very public warnings from a normally toothless tiger you yourself created." Amazing.

Also goes great hand-in-hand with the way we Germans appear to already have used up our CO2 budget for the year around the next few days or so, if you want to believe some leftie treehugger types, or sometime later in the next few months according to our own gubbermint. Who cares either way, we're gonna bust that sucker big time. AGAIN.

MUST PROTECT OLD AND CRUSTY INDUSTRY
BURN MORE CLEAN COALZ, ATMOSPHER IS HUEG
GUZZLE MORE GAS FROM RUSSIA FUK YEA BEST BUDDIES
WHO CARES THAT OUR SOLAR INDUSTRY IS ONCE AGAIN DED
SELL THEM TO THE CHINESE, NOBODY WANTS OR NEEDS CLEAN ENERGY
DURRRRR  :derp

It's tragic, in an entirely avoidable, hilarious way.

Also, I still cackle like a madman that we managed to get stuck with the Puigdemont hot potato like complete and utter buffooons.


I swear, our entire country has decided to compete with the Britons and their Mad Cow Disease fueled romp towards self-harm, only without giving it a fancy name.
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Nintex

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3889 on: April 02, 2018, 04:23:23 PM »
https://twitter.com/L0gg0l/status/980900562102349824

The Saudi Crown prince finally sold out the Palestinian cause
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Valhelm

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3890 on: April 03, 2018, 03:36:49 PM »
Happened decades ago. Israel and Saudi Arabia have realized that the facade of animosity isn't helpful anymore, now that Iran's soft-power game seems to be unstoppable

warcock

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3891 on: April 04, 2018, 07:55:36 AM »
Happened decades ago. Israel and Saudi Arabia have realized that the facade of animosity isn't helpful anymore, now that Iran's soft-power game seems to be unstoppable

No. That statement is significant if not a slip. Yes practically speaking they are fighting a common enemy, but the means the saudi barbarians have used to compete with Iran make it difficuly to openly admit this. They doubled down on exporting aggro wahabbism, to fight the iranians and give them credibility at home with hard liners. A central tenet of the imam s ideology is death to the jews. You can see how the crown prince saying this is meaningful. What is concerning to me though is that this may imply that the saudis may be starting to consider direct conventional confrontation with Iran, in which case coordination with the Israelis would be ideal maybe perhaps even necessary. $$$ is a helluva drug.

Nintex

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3892 on: April 04, 2018, 07:09:25 PM »
According to the experts(TM) the deal is this.

Trump and Kushner are playing hardball with the Saudi's. The Arabs have to join the Israeli's and the Kurds against the Iran-Assad-axis and pay the US in some form. Otherwise the US withdraws from Syria having 'defeated' ISIS leaving another proxy state for Iran to gobble up and the Saudi's isolated now that Erdogan is twerking towards the Russians.

The Arabs are bending over backwards because Kushner apparently gave them the intel that lead to the Palace coup (and there's now an investigation whether or not he was allowed to do that...) and the goal of the new Saudi prince is to list ARAMCO on the most favorable terms possible on the NYSE. Apparently a deal worth $2 trillion. Which is why he's ramming through the reforms. To lure in foreign investment for the upcoming IPO.

So basically Trump's talk about withdrawing is to put pressure on the Saudi's to step up to the plate and come to the aid of the US allies in the region (Israel/Kurds) if not Trump will just cut his losses (except for Israel) and calls quits on reforming the Middle East.
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Crash Dummy

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3893 on: April 04, 2018, 07:16:00 PM »
is the aramco deal still on? no one knows accurately how much oil they have so the $2 trillion evaluation, for an oil company, is probably going to get laughed at by investors

Nintex

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3894 on: April 04, 2018, 07:29:39 PM »
is the aramco deal still on? no one knows accurately how much oil they have so the $2 trillion evaluation, for an oil company, is probably going to get laughed at by investors
http://www.arabnews.com/node/1262616/business-economy

It seems to be a race between Hong Kong, London and New York. With New York now running in front.
The Saudi's need the money from the IPO for their reforms after running into deficits over the past few years.

In any case it is expected to be the biggest IPO in history. It could usher in some sort of new 'golden age' for the world economy or the whole thing could collapse the markets (again).
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warcock

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3895 on: April 05, 2018, 01:56:57 AM »
Reforming the middle east? Hahahaha ok bruh. TM indeed.  I mean i buy the trump play because he is a lunatic surrounded by slightly lesser lunatics, the man has time and again caused self harm through his ignorance. I dunno maybe the experts are framing this in FPS for the dramatic factor. I could buy that with oil reserves cropping up elsewhere and the rise of alternative energy the middle east s ROI is declining considering all its drawbacks but withdrawing is pretty much tantamount to throwing in the towel of world hegemon in terms of optics despite the math. Its far fetched. A fairly less convoluted explanation is that the saudi monarchy cares fuck all about their cultural inheritance and is pragmatic when it comes to preserving their rule over their country (eg wealth) and influence in the region.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2018, 05:09:43 AM by warcock »

benjipwns

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3896 on: April 05, 2018, 03:53:35 AM »
As Wrath notes, I thought it was basically accepted wisdom at this point that Iran acquiring nuclear weapons means the Saudi's do the same within a couple months simply due to their jockeying for position within the Islamic world. Israel's not really ever been considered a threat by them. The Saudi's like Jordan put up basically a form letter fuss over Israel taking out Osirak. They'd probably outright pay for them to pull off something similar with Iran.

And Israel is a least bad "friend" much like it was for Egypt especially if you want to diversify your economy and play that double game with the West and the Islamic world. Really, Jordan's kinda a prime example of dealing with the reality of Israel not really hurting you too badly. Especially considering their location. (Sadat made a more significant strategic error personally you could argue.) And in a region with the level of internal turmoil from the Iraq invasion through the Arab Spring to today, Israel even with Palestine included is practically a stable state.

Besides, at this point, nobody is seriously working for anything "greater" than a two-state solution with "Palestine" essentially unofficially propped up by Israel/Jordan anyway. I read last year that modernizing Palestinian groups are starting to shift more towards a focus on equal rights within Israel (de facto or de jure) as that's more pressing to many of people's day-to-day lives than an all or nothing stand for a hypothetical state none of them ever lived in and is still physically divided. With polls showing that it's flipped into where mainstream Israel is more hostile now to just subsuming the entire area and granting further rights to then-Israeli Arab citizens because of the population differences. Relatively of course to past surveys.

Of course, I don't know shit about any of this because I've always wondered why anyone in the region would want the many "proposals" made over the years by the many elites considering the history of exclaves and enclaves, especially ethnic ones.

Especially when you have the obvious and entirely uncontroversial answer to abolish all the states all together and live in peaceful harmony of voluntary interaction without an entity claiming a monopoly on licit violence sitting right in front of you.

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curly

  • cultural maoist
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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3897 on: April 07, 2018, 04:52:39 AM »
The death of the two state solution is more a situation of most pro-Palestinian groups coming to the realization that after decades of negotiations towards two states they've made no progress and Israeli colonization of the West Bank has in fact worsened the situation, as well as making any chance of a viable Palestinian state more remote. Any hypothetical Palestinian state that could possibly get Israeli would be a bantustan with no real independence.

Parts (maybe the majority? not sure) of the Israeli right wants a one-state solution as well, although obviously under very different conditions where Israel would annex the West Bank and either keep them there as heavily policed non citizen residents with limited freedom of movement or expel them to someplace like Jordan (shoutouts to ethnic cleansing enthusiast Ben Shapiro). As a non-expert it sounds idiotic to me, the Palestinian Authority is quite convenient to Israel for managing unrest in the West Bank, but hey when you get the chance to reclaim Judea and Samaria you gotta take it.

The other side of this is that in many ways it already is a de facto single state if we put aside the more complicated situation in Gaza. The West Bank has been occupied for over 50 years at this point. Activist groups have been drawing the parallel to apartheid South Africa for a while now and imo at least it rings quite true. The Boycott Divestment Sanctions movement is a conscious emulation of anti-Apartheid tactics.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2018, 05:01:07 AM by curly »

benjipwns

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Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3898 on: April 07, 2018, 05:13:42 PM »
Any hypothetical Palestinian state that could possibly get Israeli would be a bantustan with no real independence.
:ohyeah my man, I couldn't think of this term for the life of me when I wrote that post. Comparing it to the South African situation was exactly what I was thinking of by "still physically divided."

The banustan's are a much better comparative than say, the two halves of Pakistan, which I've seen some use.

Other than the obvious reasons, I've wondered for a while why the UN via Jordan couldn't be made the trustee of the Arabs "within Israel" with the majority regions then autonomous within a larger Israel or something. It's obviously not a long term solution (unlike the 70 year long current one) but it would at least end the situation where they're both technically stateless people and at the same time supposed to form a full state divided and occupied by Israel before anyone takes them seriously.

Atramental

  • Senior Member
Re: International Politics Thread - Macron? I don't know her.
« Reply #3899 on: April 09, 2018, 03:38:11 PM »


:thinking