International Politics Thread - Disease and Disaster

[Assimilate]

You can't, you mean?

Correct, you can not.

[Rufus]

What about disrupting classes and confiscating material on the history of fascism?

[Assimilate]

What about disrupting classes and confiscating material on the history of fascism?

There's no indication this actually happened for any other reason than people doing something they should not be doing during election time.

Stop reaching for shit dude. It's so fucking annoying when the libs lose a democratic election that is voted on by the people all of a sudden democracy is doomed. 

The best are these tweets from people that don't live here like "Brazil stay safe" or "stay strong" or "it's over for Brazil"  lol fucking stop. This place has been a lawless mess for years. Fucking idiots, why do you think people are in the streets cheering on police officers? because they thrive dictatorship or some shit? Like USE YOUR FUCKING MIND

 

[Rufus]

What about disrupting classes and confiscating material on the history of fascism?

There's no indication this actually happened for any other reason than people doing something they should not be doing during election time.

Banners above voting sites I can kind of see, but what about the classes?

[Assimilate]

What about disrupting classes and confiscating material on the history of fascism?

There's no indication this actually happened for any other reason than people doing something they should not be doing during election time.

Banners above voting sites I can kind of see, but what about the classes?

There hasn't been any reports of widespread abuse of this nature, whatever was removed was being removed because it was against the law during election time.

stop it for fuck sakes. until there is military marching on the streets arresting people for innocent protest move on bro. seriously, move the fuck on. find something else to hot take about.


you people need to get off social media.

 

[Rufus]

It being widespread was never the point, friendo. I ask again, is disrupting classes and confiscating material on the history of fascism (presuambly handed out during those classes), just honky dory?

stop it for fuck sakes. until there is military marching on the streets arresting people for innocent protest move on bro. seriously, move the fuck on. find something else to hot take about.

"Shut up until it's too late."

[Assimilate]

It being widespread was never the point, friendo. I ask again, is disrupting classes and confiscating material on the history of fascism (presuambly handed out during those classes), just honky dory?

stop it for fuck sakes. until there is military marching on the streets arresting people for innocent protest move on bro. seriously, move the fuck on. find something else to hot take about.

"Shut up until it's too late."

 

don't you feel dumb being manipulated like this?

[Rufus]

You're one to talk, seeing as how you were literally spooked into your political views.

[Tiops]

Well, I hope that wasn't actually the case, that military entered classes to confiscate materials. The report from Folha (which was clearly against Bolsonaro during the elections) only contains evidence of banners and shit being removed from public facilities, and that's absolutely prohibited by law. The only case of actual interference in the classroom was caused by the daughter of a policeman that called him because she said that the teacher was advocating for a candidate. Of course it's terrible, but it's a very specific situation.

The shitstorm here would be way bigger if this was exactly what happened. This happened while Bolsonaro was not elected yet, so even if you believe that he'll be a fascist ruler, he still doesn't have that power. Supreme Court would interefere, at least, and the opposing parties would be raising hell.

As you can see, it was the Electoral Justice with the police, not the army.


EDIT: And I'm permabanned from Era lol

[Assimilate]

EDIT: And I'm permabanned from Era lol

You knew that was going to happen.

[Rufus]

This happened while Bolsonaro was not elected yet, so even if you believe that he'll be a fascist ruler, he still doesn't have that power. Supreme Court would interefere, at least, and the opposing parties would be raising hell.

As you can see, it was the Electoral Justice with the police, not the army.

Yeah, the "military police" threw me at first, too, but Wikipedia cleared that up. I also realize this happened before he was elected. (There are only a couple of Twitter accounts a check once a week or so, so I'm never really current on anything there.)

This kind of thing is worrying to me, even if it is just an isolated incident.

[Tiops]

EDIT: And I'm permabanned from Era lol

You knew that was going to happen.

I sure do. I actually posted there because I saw another user being banned just by saying that he voted for Bolsonaro, so I think there's no point to keep posting there. I'm not going to keep holding myself and hiding shit that I do just to not get banned there.

Yeah, the "military police" threw me at first, too, but Wikipedia cleared that up. I also realize this happened before he was elected. (There are only a couple of Twitter accounts a check once a week or so, so I'm never really current on anything there.)

This kind of thing is worrying to me, even if it is just an isolated incident.

I agree that it's a bit worrying. I voted for him a bit worried about how the next years are going to be, but I'm absolutely sure that our economy would not stand 8 more years of PT, and any chance of future corruption charges would disappear. But I'm aware of the risks, and hoping for the best.

As I described to a friend of mine, I decided between a "game" of russian roulette or just shooting myself in the face.

[Rufus]

As I described to a friend of mine, I decided between a "game" of russian roulette or just shooting myself in the face.

[Assimilate]

This kind of thing is worrying to me, even if it is just an isolated incident.

It's not worrying to you that people die here in droves for simply having a cell phone? lol

It's not worrying to you that hard working middle class Brazilians are afraid to go out at night?

I'm confused. Honestly. You go into that distinguished mentally-challenged resetera thread and you see a bunch of moronic kids talking about how all of a sudden Brasil is doomed, it's been doomed. It's hellishly dangerous here and has been for a long time. It's seriously insane to me how easily people can be manipulated by tweets and hot take media. It astonishes me.

Those on the left think they are well informed educated people but they aren't. They are just as easily manipulated as a trailer park make America great again hat wearing lunatic. There really is no difference between the two.

To get the left bent out of shape all you have to do is talk about 'minorities'. Yet, you are more likely going to be assaulted for your phone than anything 'minority' related. But no one on the left cares? Lol wtf. And women are currently targeted more than anyone else because they're easy targets, not because they have boobs.

It's sooooooooo stupid.

[Rufus]

I don't trust right-wing authoritarians to actually want to tackle the underlying problems of those issues. Going by Bolsonaro's words, I expect more retribution against political enemies than solutions. Call me crazy. /shrug

[Assimilate]

I don't trust right-wing authoritarians to actually want to tackle the underlying problems of those issues. Going by Bolsonaro's words, I expect more retribution against political enemies than solutions. Call me crazy. /shrug

He comes with risks. We all know that dude.

But like Tiops said it was a choice between Russian roulette or being shot in the face.

Just to give you an idea: When it looked like PT was goin to win, 1 U.S dollar shot up to 4.23 Brazilian reis. Now it's currently at 3.69. It has dropped, and will probably continue to level out. If Haddad had one, the dollar could have easily been in the 5s which could have easily thrown this place into chaos.

No one trusted that party, domestically or internationally. The markets would have imploded.

[Tiops]

I don't trust right-wing authoritarians to actually want to tackle the underlying problems of those issues. Going by Bolsonaro's words, I expect more retribution against political enemies than solutions. Call me crazy. /shrug

I don't trust too, but Bolsonaro has no choice but to do a great government, or else PT is coming back in full force in 2022. Unless we enter a dictatorship state, but honestly if this is a risk, it would be also a risk with PT winning. I mean, the moment they tried to release Lula from prison (and they officially declared multiple times that they would do it), there would be chaos here.

[agrajag]

It just didn't happen alright, stop reaching for shit bro ok?

[curly]

https://twitter.com/Estadao/status/1056860697160609792

"Bolsonaro wins in 97% of the richest cities and Haddad in 98% of the poor"

[agrajag]

But economic anxiety

[Tiops]

This also happens because he lost in the Northeast, that is by far the poorest region in Brazil. Bolsonaro won by a mile in every center/southern State, which are in way better conditions. So it's expected.

Situation improved in the Northeast during Lula's years, and the Worker's party have a high dominance there, because even though the situation is absolutely terrible there, it's less terrible than it was on the 90s. If Bolsonaro manage to do a good job there during his government, the left is absolutely fucked here, because at the moment, they managed to convince everyone there that PT is the only party that will do everything good for them. I mean, during Lula and Dilma years, they had TV commercials that displayed food being removed from the plates of poor homes, saying in threatening voices that they would return to hunger if PT lost.

[Broseidon]

The interests of international businesses and those of the people of [LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRY] are aligned

[Nintex]

Yeah politics in general in Brazil seemed fucked up with the corruption, jailed presidents and a country on the brink of becoming the next Venezuela.

If anything Bolsonaro might 'wake up' the left that they need to change course and can't coast to victory automatically. As for Bolsonaro. When you dig into the details you figure out that his most controversial statements were made on a television show that specifically had him on to say those controversial things. Overall he seems more 'bark' than 'bite' and on some points he already backtracked during the campaign. There's also lawmakers and such who have to enact any of his policies to begin with.
Unlike what the '#resistance' thinks dictatorships don't happen overnight. They're planned and they're usually backed by business interests and/or the military.
Hitler wasn't elected he was appointed. A fact that seems to be overlooked everytime a politician raises his or her voice.

It doesn't seem like a President who got in with 55% of the vote is a prime candidate to launch a dictatorship. On the long term that could be a risk if checks and balances on power fail.
But let's be real here. The media acts as if Steve Bannon has a copy machine in his basement and churns out 'The German Trump', 'The Tropic Trump', 'The Japanese Trump' or wherever elections are held.
Bolsonaro is nothing like Trump. He uses hand gestures and he says controversial things. That's about it in terms of things they have in common. Bolsonaro is pretty much a carreer politician.
He didn't 'hijack' an established party as his vessel to avenge a roast at a dinner party.

The media also doesn't seem to realize that calling Bolsonaro 'The Trump of the Tropics' makes him more likely to succeed electorally. Especially countries with deep economic problems (Italy, Brazil etc.) look at Trump as if he's created an economic miracle and wish the same for their own countries. Because that's how Trump portrays his victories and that's pretty much the only thing the media backs him on. Also compared to HITLER or a Military dictatorship Trump doesn't seem that 'scary' as a leader of your country.
So the media kinda creates this ridiculous narrative that this Trump-like guy will launch a military dictatorship.

In reailty though the media and liberals have a terrible 'radar' to detect dictators.
People they backed that turned out to have dictatorial ambitions include:
- Vladimir Putin (who the media and liberals portrayed as a 'boring bureaucrat' who in the revolving door of Russian Prime Ministers would be gone within a year)
- Xi Jinping (again a boring loyal party member who was picked for the job because he wouldn't threaten those in power and didn't have any grand ambitions)
- Recep Tajip Erdogan (who as 'liberal' mayor of Instanbul showed that he preferred markets over religion)
- Kim Jun Un (I'm not even kidding. The media predicted that Un was a liberal and would dismantle the dictatorship because he had studied abroad)
- Muhammed Morsi (the 'moderate' leader of the Muslim Brotherhood who filled a stadium to declare war on Israel and Syria on the eve before he was ousted by the military and had started to purge his political opponents)

And they failed to see it coming with all of them.

[Mandark]

- Kim Jun Un (I'm not even kidding. The media predicted that Un was a liberal and would dismantle the dictatorship because he had studied abroad)

You're lying again.

Also, do you really want to talk about who was making dumbass predictions about the DPRK? Really?

[Nintex]

- Kim Jun Un (I'm not even kidding. The media predicted that Un was a liberal and would dismantle the dictatorship because he had studied abroad)

You're lying again.

Also, do you really want to talk about who was making dumbass predictions about the DPRK? ReallY?

Nope, the media did extensive coverage about his time in Switzerland.
Calling Kim a moderating force and worrying that the miilitary would overthrow the 'weak' new leader who was well educated and played PlayStation games during college.
Kim had to be protected from the countries hardliners such as his uncle. Who the 'moderate' allegedly strapped to a pole and shot to pieces with an anti-aircraft gun.

[Mandark]

- Kim Jun Un (I'm not even kidding. The media predicted that Un was a liberal and would dismantle the dictatorship because he had studied abroad)

That's a lie there buddy.

[Assimilate]

- Kim Jun Un (I'm not even kidding. The media predicted that Un was a liberal and would dismantle the dictatorship because he had studied abroad)

That's a lie there buddy.

That's actually not a lie. It's a stretch, but not a blatant lie. There were media outlets trying to warm up to the guy, saying he could potentially dismantle the dictatorship and he still can so who knows.

https://twitter.com/Estadao/status/1056860697160609792

"Bolsonaro wins in 97% of the richest cities and Haddad in 98% of the poor"

I wonder if you think the "poor" in Brazil is the same as the poor in the United States. They are A LOT poorer. Also a lot more violent, a lot more ignorant, a lot more uneducated, it just keeps going from there.

And when it says 97% of the richest cities.... how rich do you think they are talking? There's nothing here that can compare to a Manhattan, or San Fran, not even fucking close. One of the richest cities here is Leblon and you'd think it was upper middle class at most.

[Mandark]

nah it's a lie

[Cerveza mas fina]

It being widespread was never the point, friendo. I ask again, is disrupting classes and confiscating material on the history of fascism (presuambly handed out during those classes), just honky dory?

stop it for fuck sakes. until there is military marching on the streets arresting people for innocent protest move on bro. seriously, move the fuck on. find something else to hot take about.

"Shut up until it's too late."

First they came for...

[Cerveza mas fina]

- Kim Jun Un (I'm not even kidding. The media predicted that Un was a liberal and would dismantle the dictatorship because he had studied abroad)

That's a lie there buddy.

That's actually not a lie. It's a stretch, but not a blatant lie. There were media outlets trying to warm up to the guy, saying he could potentially dismantle the dictatorship and he still can so who knows.

Sure he went all in developing ICBMs to give up all his power and create a stable democracy 

[curly]

nintex why are you trying to pass off obvious lies at a place where everyone (including you) knows you're full of shit? do you just enjoy roleplaying as a fash propagandist as a distraction from your dull, meaningless Dutch existence?

[Nintex]

I know the entire planet is hit by amnesia. But when Kim Jun Il died speculation was rife that this new young leader would reform the country just because he was young and had studied abroad or that he would be a puppet for the military.
None had predicted he would kill his own family members to assert control.

And even if you debate me on Kim, fine. But what about the other 5 that they didn't see coming like the boring Russian bureaucrat and Erdogan?

The point still stands, the media is terrible in spotting those that aspire to dictatorial power.
Or am I lying too that Vladimir Putin was considered a boring bureaucrat not meant to last for politics.

[curly]

Notice the change from "a liberal who would dismantle the dictatorship" to just a general reformer

[Mandark]

Some chutzpah to whinge about "amnesia" while retconning a post from two hours ago.

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/jairbolsonaro/status/1057001393884676096

 

[Mandark]

Also yes, you're lying about coverage of Erdogan too.

[Assimilate]

why is the left eating a bag of dicks all over the world?

[Nabbis]

I know the entire planet is hit by amnesia. But when Kim Jun Il died speculation was rife that this new young leader would reform the country just because he was young and had studied abroad or that he would be a puppet for the military.
None had predicted he would kill his own family members to assert control.

And even if you debate me on Kim, fine. But what about the other 5 that they didn't see coming like the boring Russian bureaucrat and Erdogan?

The point still stands, the media is terrible in spotting those that aspire to dictatorial power.
Or am I lying too that Vladimir Putin was considered a boring bureaucrat not meant to last for politics.

Putin was very different before becoming a President. I don't know if he just gave up or was in it for the long game but old Russian interviews certainly paint a different trajectory compared to what happened. Then again, the dude was KGB. I do remember that Kim stuff though, dunno if media championed him but there was some speculation.

[agrajag]

Did u know

Vladimir Putin's middle name is Vladimirovich

That's because his father's name is Vladimir also. Very common occurrence in Russia.

[Nintex]

Also yes, you're lying about coverage of Erdogan too.

Erdogan was seen as a reformer. Which is why the EU wanted to explore EU membership for Turkey and foreign investors poured in.
He was expected to take the country from a military state to a democratic state. He started peace negotations with the Kurds, liberalized the markets and ran on a social-democratic program with the AKP.
At one point he used the Gulen movement to purge the military only to purge the Gulen movement years later.
Over the years his rule over the country turned more authoritarian, Islamist and conservative.
 

[Rufus]

So, where does the terrible radar come in again?

[Nintex]

So, where does the terrible radar come in again?

They always give those guys the benefit of the doubt.

- Putin has to look strong because that's how Russia works but deep down he is a liberal
- Erdogan needed to do this to stop the military from taking over but as soon as things have settled down he will tone down his rhetoric and start reforming again
etc. etc.

[Mandark]

When Erdogan became prime minister, media coverage heavily featured his Islamist ties (it would be dumb to assume they didn't since this was at the peak of the Bush-era War On Terror). They did not describe him as "liberal."

You realize we can look this stuff up, right?

[Nintex]

When Erdogan became prime minister, media coverage heavily featured his Islamist ties (it would be dumb to assume they didn't since this was at the peak of the Bush-era War On Terror). They did not describe him as "liberal."

You realize we can look this stuff up, right?

Nope, Erdogan was the liberal reformer who was unjustly barred from politics.
For years his Islamism was promoted as a sign that an Islamic Democracy could work and was an example for the rest of the Middle East which at that point were mostly (military) dictatorships (Egypt, Syria, etc.).

[Mandark]

I'd love to read five major outlets referring to him as a "liberal."

[jorma]

I'd love to read five major outlets referring to him as a "liberal."

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2004/01/29/the-importance-of-backing-erdogan

He isn't wrong about Erdogan. I'm not sure that makes the media stupid or whatever, because Turkey were going more liberal back when they were striving for EU membership.

[Nintex]

I'd love to read five major outlets referring to him as a "liberal."

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2004/01/29/the-importance-of-backing-erdogan

He isn't wrong about Erdogan. I'm not sure that makes the media stupid or whatever, because Turkey were going more liberal back when they were striving for EU membership.

The same economist today:
https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1057037007061467136

Who the fuck are these people kidding. 
Hungary is a shit show, Russia has always been a 'democracy' in name only, China is a communist state.
Those are facts for decades. Yet, suddenly democracy is dead. 

starting with a charismatic leader who pledges to save the people

This literally describes 99% of the politicians. I didn't know Bill Clinton turned the USA into a dictactorship smh. 

[Assimilate]

not gonna lie he can be intimidating.



I'll jump ship if he loses his head

[benjipwns]

It being widespread was never the point, friendo. I ask again, is disrupting classes and confiscating material on the history of fascism (presuambly handed out during those classes), just honky dory?

When I saw this the first question I had was "how many classes could this possibly be?" Especially about fascism specifically.

Not to get into the fight on whether it happened or should happen, as I think most election "silence" or "pause" type laws in better states than Brazil are myopic and silly in the first place so it wouldn't entirely surprise me. (And I do recall some instances elsewhere where these kinds of laws or election display laws were interpreted in quite draconian ways by local officials who were strongly for a party/candidate in that region/city/whatever.)

[benjipwns]

I want to say there was a low tier GOP candidate in the last presidential primaries who had to be shuffled off because he came out after voting personally and some incoming voters stopped him to talk and he was like two feet within the exclusion zone.

[curly]

Lyin' Nintex at it again

[Cerveza mas fina]

China defies categorisation

[Mandark]

China is communist if we're talking about its human rights records, capitalist if we're talking about its economic growth.

One of those "guess what your child did at school today" situations.

[curly]

China defies categorisation

Nah they're pretty clearly state capitalism

[Cerveza mas fina]

There is a strong push from the state against some western things like idolisation of stars etc.

And yes its capitalist but the state has a final say and also does things for the greater good

[benjipwns]

*runs*

[Rufus]

(And I do recall some instances elsewhere where these kinds of laws or election display laws were interpreted in quite draconian ways by local officials who were strongly for a party/candidate in that region/city/whatever.)

Seems like this was one such instance.

Or, instead of my flippant nonsense:
https://soundcloud.com/watsoninstitute/making-sense-of-brazils-2018-presidential-election-1
https://soundcloud.com/watsoninstitute/making-sense-of-brazils-2018-presidential-election-part-2
(part 3 forthcoming)

https://soundcloud.com/watsoninstitute/making-sense-of-brazils-2018-presidential-election-part-3

[agrajag]

*runs*

Doesn't seem like a bad take.

[Brehvolution]

What Glen, and people like Glen keep saying is that people are voting for balls and trump because they want the government to eliminate their political opposites. It's not "maybe embrace fascism" as he says, it is embracing fascism. They also never speak about how it will make their lives better with these people in charge.

[agrajag]

I think Glenn is right. I mentioned this in another thread, but I have a Brazilian buddy who lives in US. He absolutely despises Trump, yet he supported Bolsonaro. And my buddy is definitely does not belong to the white ruling class. I think people underestimate just how desperate the folks in countries like Brazil are. Those kind if people are always vulnerable for an authoritarian strongman to swoop in and take control. Plus, I have a theory that most people have an innate desire for someone to lord over them and make decisions for them.

I don't believe the voters in Brazil are a direct equivalent of Trump voters.