But... why?
The Tories became the Brexit party lite. Remainers in the minority. Just rumors of a Swiss style got the Brexiters in a frenzy.
If they do a 180 here with a referendum in the hope of rejoining, they'll tear themselves apart. And that's before the expected Tory wipeout in the 2024 election. Would there even be a Tory party left at the end?
Maybe a break up is what they want, get rid of the brexiteers and those that want to put Boris back in. The Dutch "conservatives" pretty much did the same thing.
Turned their back on the conservative policies and instead embraced carbon neutral policies, uncontrolled migration and have now started with atonement for slavery and colonialism.
They lost some voters and had to put out fires in the party but in the end it keeps them in power as the actual left and right are considered too radical and have to be more radical to stand out or stick with the ruling party.
They rule unopposed because the left is afraid of the far right so they rather have the existing ruling class. Just last week the Dutch pension funds were reformed thanks to support from the labour party which was pretty much the last remnant of the welfare state.
This has essentially changed the pension funds from a 'guaranteed savings account' to an investment tied directly to the stock markets.
This is still wishful thinking on Russia's part and dare I say it, projection on Russia's part. It wants a block of EU states to go its own way. Fourth Reich or not, still blows up the EU and divides the continent. The French or whoever else waging war on the Fourth Reich is just icing on the cake from Russia's POV.
This 'Fourth Reich' would just be the EU with more teeth. I don't see it break-up Europe but rather unite it or complete the European project.
If Ukraine joins the EU in the current form the balance of power would shift towards Poland and Visegrad. It would instantly become the biggest 'block'.
Macron is pushing for an EU army and EU reforms for quite a while and Von Der Leyen has already made the EU Presidency the main seat of power as Scholz is pretty much sidelined.
The central bank digital currency, carbon taxes etc. all EU plans that would've been blocked before have moved ahead. The Dutch parliament voted against the CBDC but the government approved it anyway.
If a vote would be held for an EU army there would be some ifs and buts, however the essentials would pass in the current conditions. To give an example where we stand. The Dutch have long protected the veto rights that countries like Hungary like to use.
The power that each EU country has to block any legislation they don't like by themselves. This veto right existed so that big nations could not decide matters without taking into account the interests of smaller nations. Right now the Dutch government however is lobbying to remove this veto power and have a majority decide. There's a decent chance the war ends in February after which things will move quickly on the security front. If Poland (Visegrad) and France (Italy + Southern Europe) agree you pretty much have a guaranteed majority no matter which way Germany swings.
Talking about power, Putin has forged 9 rings to rule them all and handed them out to the leaders of the former Soviet Republics.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1607661278264233984
