Corona Thread |OT| Nu variant, who dis?

[OnlyRegret]

A core tenet of self-reliance eh, yeah that vibes with me 

[Fifstar]

The situation in Quebec care homes is really dire - 1200 staff are sick and they are asking the military for relief.

It's probably gotta be similar everywhere. France care homes account for 35% of fatalities now and I think the reporting is still not complete. Wouldn't be surprised it's half by the end. It's probably overestimated a bit because France, AFAIK, just assume all deaths with symptoms since the start of the epidemic is COVID if they have two positives in any of those institutions. I believe Canada does something along those lines.

You had that horrific case of an elder's home in Spain where there wasn't staff anymore when the army went to it and the residents and dead bodies were just... There. Police receiving a tip and finding 17 COVID related deaths in a New Jersey institution. Sweden hard hit there too, etc..

A controversy in the UK because PPE suppliers said they couldn't take orders for Scotland and other home nations under orders from English Health to prioritise supply to England as far as care home staff was concerned. It's been denied officially but there's apparently written evidence one such supplier did interpret something from the administration like that.

For all the talk of "multigenerational homes in Italy with la mama cooking di pasta, that's why they got hit so hard, it's a me journalist Mario !" I suspect concentrating elders may probably be the riskier of the two. In retrospect it's obvious canceling visits should have happened earlier (mid Feb. perhaps...) and there wasn't tests for the staff or residents anyway.

I read one official in italy recently said that the death figure in Italy is actually much higher because deaths in care homes weren't recorded for the most part. So it seems like Italy has a similar situation to other countries and not even (or more likely especially not) Italians believe in the stereotype...

[Madrun Badrun]

Watching this video made me realize I support the US opening up again soon.

[VomKriege]

Yeah it was a bit of shallow punditry and speculation that got thrown out to try to rationalize something that was in flux.

[VomKriege]

Otherwise daily situation in France :
Deaths in hospitals in line with what you'd expect.
Still more beds (ICU or otherwise) being freed which has been a constant for a week or so. Good day for recoveries which now tends to be between 1k to 2k daily.

[Leadbelly]

He is right about the economy being dependent on us. However, if the 'end' is waiting until there is a vaccine, then we are screwed either way.

[VomKriege]

He is right about the economy being dependent on us. However, if the 'end' is waiting until there is a vaccine, then we are screwed either way.

Effective medication slashing some of the severity of the disease would help tremendously in managing this. Is as likely, if not more, as a vaccine and could come sooner, as far as I understand.

[Leadbelly]

Yeah. We certainly need something right now.

[OnlyRegret]

Alberta stats, latest available. AHS doing good here regardless of government, 

Trends forming:
-fatality rate under 50s is very low
-fatality rates start climbing swiftly above 50s, reaching very high % fast
-hospitalization rates starts climbing alarmingly fast from as low as the 30s (!!!)

Takeway:
-low overall fatality rate sensitive to high skewing off demographics, hospitalization rate remains concerning
-main concern with curve flattening is to avoid crushing healthcare resources because a hospitalization rate of 6% for a city of say 2 million people means 120,000 people burdening the hospital in addition to normal tax if everyone gets sick

[Flannel Boy]

Over 1/10th of 1% of New York City's population has died from COVID-19.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

[toku]

My brother was taking tests all week through zoom or whatever only for schools to go "fuck it, you graduate already, all you other fucks? We'll just give you the exact same grades last semester and if you didn't pass, we'll just round out to you passing. Have a great summer and stay inside" leaving all of us shook.

lmao

[toku]

Tell him to keep plugging his guitar stuff man, legit cool. Bless.

[toku]

https://twitter.com/DeionHD/status/1250595101111390209

[naff]

quarantine is still not as boring as dbzzzzzz

[Leadbelly]

He is right about the economy being dependent on us. However, if the 'end' is waiting until there is a vaccine, then we are screwed either way.

this is the umpteenth time you've said something like this. Just give people money to buy stuff and give people more money if they're working. Demand will recover so investment will recover. Investment will lead to hiring. The only thing that would stop a recovery is a lack of willpower.

You don't think the timescale matters?

- 1 month
- 3 months
- 18 months

Same difference right?

[team filler]

 

[thisismyusername]

if you made it off the titanic on a life raft, would you complain that your vacation was ruined, or would you be grateful that you survived?

Why not both?

But fundamentally: Fuck the economy. Let it tank and show that money is just a social construct.

[Nintex]

A lot of countries made mistakes but Jair Bolsonaro is still unchallenged in running the worst pandemic response in recorded history.

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1250893520585535488

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/ambiej/status/1250546047904034816

[Leadbelly]

You don't think the timescale matters?

- 1 month
- 3 months
- 18 months

Same difference right?

As long as there is food and energy we can do it indefinitely. The longer the crisis takes the harder hit the economy will be but all of that is irrelevant compared to the quantity of life saved. I really don't understand your thinking; if you made it off the titanic on a life raft, would you complain that your vacation was ruined, or would you be grateful that you survived?

Again, I wish for the best case scenario of this just like everyone else. And hope the least people die of this as possible. And the analogy I would use to describe my way of thinking is more like making it off the titanic on a life raft, and then dying of pneumonia from the cold. lol

I hope things recover quickly. I only express concern that it doesn't. I'm not wishing this shit to happen. What I will say though is, I genuinely believe there may come a point when will have to make a cost/benefit analysis on this. I don't want people to die, but then I don't want people to have to suffer the potential economic consequences of our actions either. It would indeed be like escaping death from the Titanic only to die of pneumonia.

[Occam]

3,860 Covid-19 deaths in the USA today, and the day isn't over.

[Mandark]

You don't think the timescale matters?

- 1 month
- 3 months
- 18 months

Same difference right?

Matters to what?

The physical infrastructure and the human capital needed to extract value from it will be there when we emerge, whether the timescale is 1, 3, or 18 months.

A hangover depression that occurs after we emerge from this comes down to 1) people's reticence to resume certain types of consumption (live entertainment, travel, etc.) and 2) a cascading effect of bankruptcies.

The first won't be made any better by "reopening" sooner and causing more deaths. The second is purely a product of financial arrangements that we could change as a matter of policy if we wanted to. That's what shost means by willpower.

[Nintex]

The plan to reopen has been released

https://www.scribd.com/document/456756506/Trump-releases-Opening-Up-America-Again-guidelines

Doesn't seem much different from most other countries.
Gradually open stuff up again but keep social distancing etc. in place.

[VomKriege]

Economy yadda yadda...
I'm more worried for our mental health well being.

[Himu]

I'm not going to get my stimulus check thanks to student loans.

At least I'll likely get unemployment.

Still though, I'm ready to cut a bitch.

[Nintex]

brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[Leadbelly]

Again, I wish for the best case scenario of this just like everyone else. And hope the least people die of this as possible. And the analogy I would use to describe my way of thinking is more like making it off the titanic on a life raft, and then dying of pneumonia from the cold. lol

I hope things recover quickly. I only express concern that it doesn't. I'm not wishing this shit to happen. What I will say though, is I genuinely believe there may come a point when will have to make a cost/benefit analysis on this. I don't want people to die, but then I don't want the people to have to suffer the potential economic consequences of our actions either. It would indeed be like escaping death from the Titanic only to die of pneumonia.

The one thing that has become apparent in this crisis is that, there is no winning in this situation. It could turn out that the economic collapse that follows might have far greater impact on the world and lasting damage than the virus did.

Preventing millions of people from dying is the win. There is no realistic amount of economic damage that could happen that would at all be comparable to a Holocaust sized murder. It's objectively different. Even 50% reduction in GDP for five, six years would be better than millions of people dying. Period. And I don't even think it would be that long because, like I said, with enough willpower you can get things going again. Do you know how fast growth was in the postwar period?

You know that post you made where you were sarcastically talking about poverty killing more people? It was true nonetheless. lol

9 million people last year died of hunger. Hunger relating to poverty is the number 1 killer in the world. I'm not an economist, but it strikes me that a rapidly slowing global economy will have detrimental effects in developing countries.

In terms of Covid-19 we simply don't know how many it could potentially kill. Which is why it is a good idea to start large scale testing as soon as possible. We need to know what we are dealing with so that we can more accurately decide what is the best course of action.

[Madrun Badrun]

Matters to what?

The physical infrastructure and the human capital needed to extract value from it will be there when we emerge

Except for the 5G towers and the lizard people installing them   

[Madrun Badrun]

3,860 Covid-19 deaths in the USA today, and the day isn't over.

What's your source?  world meters is just over 2000 today. 

[Nintex]

Once you get the number of infected down to a level that is comparable to other diseases that are out there such as the flu is it 'safe' to open again.
The big challenge will be is to keep it under control until there's a vaccine or it dies out.

The economy is probably running at about ~15% - 20% now. If you can get that up to 70% or even 90% you can easier fill in the gaps and aim your stimulus and aid to where it is most needed.
For a lot of jobs working from home will remain the new normal for a long while though and some companies will probably start to spread out their operations and return production back home.

We'll probably see far less open space offices in the future and people have to continue to keep their distance in public places and self quarantine when they have flu like symptoms.

Large events, non-essential travel to other countries? Forget about it until at least next year.

[Mandark]

If you think lower consumption levels in the US would cause death by starvation in poor countries, maybe ask what mechanism is linking the two things, and whether it could be bypassed.

[Madrun Badrun]

A lack of US productivity would cause starvation in poor counties because there will be no foreign aid without American productivity.  This could be bypassed if poor counties just paid their depts and worked hard themselves.   

[Madrun Badrun]

Oh shit he beat me to it.  Asshole.  I think that was an unfair win because I re-typed stuff instead of quoting and you guys know typing is hard for me. 

[Mandark]

You're both getting likes as part of our effort to prop up the Bore's economy.

[Leadbelly]

You know that post you made where you were sarcastically talking about poverty killing more people? It was true nonetheless. lol

The mortality rate actually went down in the US during the Great Depression.

9 million people last year died of hunger. Hunger relating to poverty is the number 1 killer in the world. I'm not an economist, but it strikes me that a rapidly slowing global economy will have detrimental effects in developing countries.

The people primarily dying of hunger aren't the ones impacted by lockdowns, they're in regions impacted by climate-change or war-torn countries like Syria and Yemen. But anyway, they're not hungry because they're not working, they're hungry because we don't give them food. So give them food. Give everyone food. There's enough food on Earth to feed everyone.

If you're worried that a global depression is going to hurt a lot of people, give them money to buy the stuff that's still being produced. That's what I keep trying to tell you. It's willpower. Whether other people suffer is not their choice, it's ours.

In terms of Covid-19 we simply don't know how many it could potentially kill. Which is why it is a good idea to start large scale testing as soon as possible. We need to know what we are dealing with so that we can more accurately decide what is the best course of action.

Yes we do. We've got the mortality rate down to about an order of magnitude. It's 1% to 3%. That's been consistent for almost half a year now.

Millions of people in India were ordered back to their homes because of lockdown. Many of India's poor had to walk back to their villages miles away on foot.

India's poor worst hit

But at the same time, the lockdown, with strict limits on activity, has been devastating for the economy - and for India's poor.

Millions of daily wage labourers suddenly lost their jobs, forcing hundreds of thousands to make the long trek back to their home villages, hundreds of kilometres away, often on foot.

Some died on the way, while others were shunned by locals when they made it back to their villages. One viral clip showed a group of migrants being hosed down with chemicals.

Others have been stranded in cities in cramped, unsanitary conditions where the virus could spread quickly.

New Delhi alone is providing hundreds of thousands of free meals to help those for whom the lockdown means immediate hunger.

Farmers have complained of a lack of workers to harvest crops while the grounding of thousands of trucks by the lockdown have hampered food transport.

Farms, still the bedrock of the Indian economy, are heading into their most important harvest time of the year, when many villages earn enough money to finance themselves for months to come.
india lockdown
The lockdown, with strict limits on activity, has been devastating for the economy [Harish Tyagi/EPA]
'Invisible assassin'

Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das called the coronavirus an "invisible assassin" that could wreak havoc on Asia's third-biggest economy.

The national restaurants association, which said its members employed seven million people, warned on Monday there could be "social unrest" if it did not receive financial relief.

The commerce ministry has also reportedly urged the government to consider restarting more activities "with reasonable safeguards" even if the lockdown is extended.

Even before the pandemic, the Indian economy was stuttering with unemployment at its highest in decades.

Some analysts have predicted growth could slump to 1.5-2 percent this year - well below the level needed to provide jobs for the millions coming into the labour market each month.

Modi's announcement came amid debates in countries around the world on how to lift restrictions while avoiding a spike in new infections.

French President Emmanuel Macron extended a tight lockdown in France by another month, but Italy and Austria are reopening some shops, and Spain is restarting construction and factory work.

World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has warned against rushing headlong into lifting restrictions, stressing that only a vaccine can fully halt the spread.
india lockdown
People in a queue for free food distributed by volunteers during a lockdown in Dwarka, New Delhi

The ramifications of a prolonged lockdown, potentially lasting over 18 months, could be disastrous. It really is a complex issue.

[Nintex]

Well Trump just wants every seat in every restaurant occupied and doesn't like this new normal. 

[Mandark]

did you just google "india poor coronavirus"

[Tripon]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jc_bradbury/status/1250922058852245507

[Mandark]

Imagine if we started sending grains to India to feed humans rather than to the Netherlands to feed cows.

[Madrun Badrun]

We call Nintex a lot of names but that's going too far. 

[Himu]

Explain your new nick Shosta.

[Madrun Badrun]

Then turn it into some High-fructose syrup that can be added to flavoured water before we send it to them.  If we get them to pollute their water supplies in making our consumables, we could force them to drink that.   

[Himu]

Aight.

[team filler]

The doctors: We can reopen but we need to keep the masks, gloves, social distancing, etc

Trump: I want 110 thousand asses in 110 thousand seats at the football games, god damn it

https://i.imgur.com/2k2RUUz.jpg

 

[Mandark]

it's the letters that form "shostakovitch" but scrambled

[Nintex]

You asked for it Mandark 
https://twitter.com/ValaAfshar/status/1248982174755323906

[Mandark]

Imagine if we started sending grains to India to feed humans rather than to the Netherlands to feed cows.

forcing people to eat field corn is a fate worse than death

shelbyvillebitinglemon.jpg

[team filler]

You asked for it Mandark 
https://twitter.com/ValaAfshar/status/1248982174755323906

[thisismyusername]

The doctors: We can reopen but we need to keep the masks, gloves, social distancing, etc

Trump: I want 110 thousand asses in 110 thousand seats at the football games, god damn it

https://i.imgur.com/2k2RUUz.jpg

 

He didn't shave his beard to CDC mask covering standard. 6/10, would bang, but would get corona from.

[Leadbelly]

The ramifications of a prolonged lockdown, potentially lasting over 18 months, could be disastrous. It really is a complex issue.

I feel like you're not listening. If India has trouble feeding itself, we should feed India. Which we are able to do. China is India's northern neighbor, has eliminated its coronavirus problem, and is a major food exporter. They can provide relief if they choose to.

And this isn't going to last 18 months. Show me one person anywhere who says that a TOTAL LOCKDOWN is going to last 18 months everywhere. More likely we have a year of localized lockdowns and travel restrictions.

If we feed them fine.

And I feel the original point often gets lost when going through these lengthy discussions. It was in response to that Youtube video. His point being that public confidence in the economy is what will drive the economy. If we open too soon then it will make things worse. He then went on to say it will probably last until there is a vaccine. To which I stated that if it lasts that long, whether there is confidence or not, it will probably end up disastrous either way.

[Leadbelly]

I hope so. We'll leave it at that. lol

[team filler]

stost, did you see them cheeks? 

[Tripon]

https://mobile.twitter.com/qhm305/status/1250799334846857216

God, I want hot pot. I don't know if American Restaurants will adopt all of this. (masks, temperature check, etc).

[Tripon]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jc_bradbury/status/1250928849426227202

[Tasty]

did you just google "india poor coronavirus"

Nintex why would you like this.

[nachobro]

You asked for it Mandark 
https://twitter.com/ValaAfshar/status/1248982174755323906

marcel 1 coward 0

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

what is up with the 14th deaths?  Was this backlogged NY deaths?

edit 

New York City today has reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent" [source]. We will add these to the New York State total as soon as it is determined whether the historical distribution can be obtained

[Tripon]

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1250902644501164035
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1250902905550450693

[ToxicAdam]

Have you guys thought about liability issues in the post-quarantine world we will be slowly entering?

How does a concert venue open up and put itself at risk of a patron getting sick there and then passing away? It would seem like a pretty juicy case for a lawyer to take and blame the venue for not protecting the patrons enough. I’m already seeing rumblings of people potentially filing cases against employers or governmental bodies.

I’ve worked in corporations long enough to see how risk averse they are to liability concerns. I just can’t see how they can go back to “business as usual” without some kind of immunity granted to them going forward.

Or am I just overthinking this?

[Mandark]

There's probably some common-law concept about the typical risks that a reasonable person would expect.

And in practice, I think the courts would be pretty shy about bringing the hammer down on whole industries like that. But I wouldn't be shocked if we see new boilerplate disclaimers in ads and maybe some provisions snuck into big legislative bills.