Its interesting that multiple D states decided to drop mandates the same day. Really does feel that Daddy Biden sent out a memo. Everyone screaming "cases are dropping cases are dropping" but the 7 day average is still higher than any other point in the pandemic, aside from Jan 13, 2021. 7 day death average is well above 2k daily.
Was out in NYC last night for a birthday dinner, and just one staff person had a mask. Was going to report them to the popo but the food was good.
I think its clear that mask use will drop much faster this time around. When Biden declared victory last May, I dont think mask use dropped below 50% around here. This time I think it will.
What will be interesting to see is what BA2 does. Lots of talk about why it hasnt gotten a hold in the US - just 3% per the CDC this week. Meanwhile, Germany, France etc still a clusterfuck. South Africa is also showing an increase recently.
One issue we're coming up on is that we're getting near the 3 month point of Omicron, which means immunity might start dropping to the point where BA2 starts infecting people who had Omicron in November.
So three scenarios from the Official James Covid Prediction Lab:
1) Cases continue to drop to under 50k daily in March, which is where we were last February/March, and then finally go all the way down to 10k like last summer. No new variants and corona ends! We did it everyone!
2) Cases stall out at around 40-80k daily, BA2 starts to get a hold, and then cases start to sharply rise in late March/April, because zero restrictions exist and all caution is thrown out the window. Once we hit 200k daily again, some folks start to worry, but its full speed ahead by politicians who would resists any new measure short of 500k daily. Deaths rise to 3k daily again in May/June but no one cares.
3) Either scenario, but a new variant emerges, the much awaited "bleeding eyes" virus with ebola-like symptoms. This one gets people interested in Covid again.