$599 - $699 at launch for a model with a disk drive seems realistic.
The NVme SSD's are still quite expensive.
RDNA2 gpu's aren't even out in the wild yet and ship at the end of this year.
That doesn't even factor in the manufacturing issues caused by the COVID-19 pandemic so they likely won't have a ton of supply either.
And in general demand for consoles is high.
Xbox One and PS4 were quite cheap because Microsoft and Sony picked off the shelf parts.
The PS4 shipped November 2013, a full year after the Radeon 7800 series the GPU was based on shipped, which by then had already seen a price drop.
The Xbox One X shipped at $500, so unless MS sells it as a loss they're not going to hit a price below that at launch.
I'm saying $699 for both and one of them might even go as high as $749 depending on supply.
Microsoft releases most if not all their games cross gen with smart delivery.
Plus they're working on a cheaper revision that sits between X and PS5.
The full line-up will probably look like this:
Xbox One D - $199
Nintendo Switch Lite - $199
PS4 Slim - $249
Nintendo Switch - $299
PS4 Pro - $349
Xbox One X - $399
Xbox Series S - $499
PS5 D - $599
PS5 - $699
Xbox Series X - $749
For the holidays or pre-orders they might shave off $50 from the price.
Next year when the dust settles and production has ramped up, they'll probably cut $100 by summer.
There's is no reason for both MS and Sony to launch these machines at a loss.
Your analysis isn't too flawed, but this gen was atypical for consoles not being sold at a loss for the first couple or few years of a console's lifecycle. The 360 and PS3, the latter priced at $599, was still sold at a loss.
I don't think Sony has a solid plan for the next few years besides producing their first party games, along with following trends set by competitors or tech in general.
Microsoft is putting a lot of effort into Game Pass being the future of game distribution for consoles. Essentially what Steam is for PC and Netflix is for TV and movies, Game Pass will be for console.
Not to mention, there is no way Microsoft is going to sell 4 different SKUs or try to get that shelf space for retailers. XboxOneX will be discontinued, replaced with Xbox Lockhart, Xbox One S still gets sold,Xbox Series X will be the premium version.
Xbone S: $199
Xbox Lockhart: $299 or $399
Xbox Series X: $499 or $599
There is absolutely no way four or five Xbixs will sit on the same shelf.
