No way they have Hellblade 2 for launch.
I don't even think it's a 2021 title.
The game just swiutched engine to UE5, which isn't even coming out till end of 2021, now ofc. thay have preferential treatment, but if they're still that early as to be able to switch around engine, there's no way they're out by the holidays.
Forza Motorsport and Halo Inf. are the only big titles i think are plausible for launch (and Forza is still a niche product).
And tbh, 343 still has to demonstrate the ability to do a decent Halo experience, not a sure fire hit at all.
By comparison Guerrilla, Naughty Dog, Insomniac, are much better established studios.
MS Flight Sim looks amazing, but it's also super niche.
Thing is, even in the nostalgia department, they don't all that much.
If they cultivate these studios well, i think we'll see the benefits by halfway through the gen.